2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPPP FL Poll Romney-49 Obama-48
http://twitter.com/ppppolls
Our new Florida poll finds a razor tight race- Mitt Romney leads 49-48, a 5 point improvement for him compared to 3 weeks ago
mucifer
(23,545 posts)rhombus
(696 posts)If Obama wins the debate on Tues, he'd most likely regain his Florida lead.
And I'm confident this will take place.
Sekhmets Daughter
(7,515 posts)There are 12 people on the ballot here.
msongs
(67,406 posts)make an unequivical SS support statement
TroyD
(4,551 posts)If he would model himself after FDR, he would do better.
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)mucifer
(23,545 posts)It seemed a bit flip floppy to me and did not make me feel good about our President saying he and rmoney have the same SS policy.
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)Romney is not ahead by 7 points but he has made up ground. But this is a close one and we may not get Florida. Nor do we need Florida. Obama can keep it close with a good debate Tuesday. I am more interested in VA as that may be more friendly to Dems in demos age wise.
Drahthaardogs
(6,843 posts)Romney cannot win without VA.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Obama was leading all Fall, so it's too bad this has happened.
Still, the PPP poll shows it is potentially still winnable if Obama can do well in the 2 next debates.
mzmolly
(50,992 posts)days ago, according to the Miami Herald.
http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/11/3045712/poll-strong-debate-helps-mitt.html
And, the four point lead he had in Florida, according to Ras.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/florida/election_2012_florida_president
I find this a bit encouraging. Perhaps the president is regaining some momentum?
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)that rather than say, 'Wow, this is winnable.' Just think if this poll had been take four days ago? Obama might have been down by 5.
mzmolly
(50,992 posts)our President. I think that's a very good sign?
Florida is winnable, but there are paths to victory without it.
Coexist
(24,542 posts)I've been watching on electoralvote.com and it goes lean red to lean blue. It stayed lean blue for a couple weeks. Now lean red. I think it'll flip back.
mgcgulfcoast
(1,127 posts)Jennicut
(25,415 posts)It is not 3 points or 7 points like some R leaning polls. PPP is a fair pollster and with a one point lead anything is possible. Can't write off this state but we don't need it either.
still_one
(92,192 posts)his debate performance, and the lack of hitting romney on his constant reversals and lies, we are still even says a lot
After the next debate we will do even better when romeny is fully exposed before all to see for what he really is
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)even if Obama wins in a popular vote landslide.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)are the two previous polls.
Raleigh, N.C.-- PPP's newest Florida poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by a 50-46 margin in the state. That represents a 3 point improvement for Obama since PPP's last poll of the state, which was conducted the weekend after the Republican convention. It represents the largest lead PPP has found for Obama in Florida since early June.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_923.pdf
Raleigh, N.C.-- PPP's newest Florida poll, conducted completely after the Republican convention, finds no change in the Presidential race there. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 48-47, exactly as he did on our last poll of the state five weeks ago.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_912.pdf
The President evidently got a convention bounce, but the race has always been close.
BluegrassDem
(1,693 posts)It's a tough state for a Democrat, no doubt about it. Florida and N.C. always seemed to me the states that would be the toughest for him this time around. We can still win Florida. This poll is within the margin of error, so it's basically tied. A superior GOTV could make all the difference in the world.
HockeyMom
(14,337 posts)Latinos want to be second class citizens? Romney is running ads 2 to 1 to Obama now. Maybe Obama has given up in Florida?
still_one
(92,192 posts)uninformed can you be.
do you even give a damn about your grandkids?
Real estate is starting to come back, in spite of the republicans. Your state has been decimated by your wonderful choice of govenor
Were things ever this bad when the Democrats were in control of the state?
wake up before it is too late
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)I'm all for cutting it off and letting it float away.
still_one
(92,192 posts)ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)...but why is every vile sex story or someone doing something insanely stupid over 50% of the time or more from Florida?
That should say something.
HockeyMom
(14,337 posts)I have the misfortune to have to live here. Tranplanted New Yorker. Scott won with 1%. I fault Democrats with that for not challenging the MEDICARE FRAUD Space Alien. It seems to happen over and over.
Dems roll over and play dead here. Personally, I would love to see Obama win WITHOUT stupid Florida, which he CAN do.
still_one
(92,192 posts)ChiTownChavista
(55 posts)You can't cut off the cracker north part. The south part is fine.
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)They could swing a tight one come election day, should we get a bounce nationwide this and next week.
zach1845
(30 posts)Due to the Number of Cuban latinos who vote mostly republican. I believe last election it was 56/44 or something alsong those lines. just a slight edge. It is not like the latino vote out west.
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)Sure, it's Axelrod saying it, but I imagine the ground game has gotten stronger.
JI7
(89,250 posts)with leads are leaving out the hispanic vote.
ProSense
(116,464 posts)Nate Silver factors in the Hispanic vote: Florida goes from leans Romney with a 35 percent probability of an Obama win to leans Obama with a 53 percent probability of an Obama win.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251141125
zach1845
(30 posts)The ratio is way down its not 80/20 like in Arizona. more like 55 percent republican.
Due to cuban latino's. But if latinos come out strong it still helps. He can win FL with a strong showing of Latinos and if he wins FL it is more then likely because his country wide total would be problally at least +4% Florida is more republican then your average state. it was always gonna be uphill for him.
HockeyMom
(14,337 posts)Local paper had a big article on a major influx of Puerto Ricans to the Orlando area, AND that they are majority Democrats. Well, that is a hopeful sign. Maybe Scott will declare them ILLEGAL ALIENS, just like one stupid Republican Congresswoman said they were.
Lone_Star_Dem
(28,158 posts)I expected it to be lower. Florida is totally winnable.
DarthDem
(5,255 posts)Remember, Florida is a must-win state for Willard: no Florida, no presidency. There's pretty much literally no realistic path to 270 for him without it.
So what this poll does is:
(1) Completely refute that narrative-driving-attempt by Mason-Dixon (the R +7) from a few days ago;
(2) Make it clear that the president is in good shape in an optional, luxury state for him, but an absolute-must-win for Mittbot; and
(3) Reverse the media narrative.
Obviously we'd rather be leading, but on the whole, a 1-point lead in a state that we don't need and the other side has to have is a good result in the current climate. And there's 23 days to go.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)Tony_FLADEM
(3,023 posts)Even if he won it by a thousand votes they can't say nothing. In addition, that 49% Romney has could be a rounding error and it's even closer.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)Baitball Blogger
(46,715 posts)Oigame!
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)No coattails on Romney's bounce in Florida- Bill Nelson still leads the Senate race 45-37:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/romney-leads-by-1-in-tight-florida-race.html
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)DarthDem
(5,255 posts). . . Rmoney/Nelson ticket-splitters are not impossible to envision since Nelson is no one's idea of a liberal, but I sort of doubt that there's a nine-point gap between Obama's performance and Nelson's. Most likely, there's some sort of enthusiasm gap here working to our detriment, and there's plenty of time to fix it.
Moreover, Florida is a luxury state for us. Polls like this will make Mittens keep spending time and resources in Florida, which is great.
regnaD kciN
(26,044 posts)Per 538 yesterday, it could be important.
underpants
(182,807 posts)Romney HAS to win Florida....and Ohio --> and that is not happening
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)Doctor_J
(36,392 posts)Once again the president's embrace of republican policies is hurting him. If he tanks Tuesday's debate he's going to be in deep shit.
FrenchieCat
(68,867 posts)Pres. Obama will be fine whether he "wins" or "Loses" the debate.
Perhaps if he just lies a lot, He'll "win", hey?
jimdeed
(14 posts)That's nice...
I notice Romney's bump starting to fade a little well see how this next debate goes.
Politicalboi
(15,189 posts)White males. I still don't see how this can be this close with the leads Obama has with certain groups.
still_one
(92,192 posts)numbers will pick up