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PPP FL Poll Romney-49 Obama-48 (Original Post) aaaaaa5a Oct 2012 OP
I guess that's why everyone is now focused on Ohio mucifer Oct 2012 #1
Florida is very winnable for Obama. rhombus Oct 2012 #6
Actually that's not as bad as it looks Sekhmets Daughter Oct 2012 #2
not surprising since obama gave up SS as a clear cut difference - looks like he will never msongs Oct 2012 #3
I wish Obama would stop trying to be a 'blue dog' TroyD Oct 2012 #7
This isn't 1936. Stop the handwringing, please. RBInMaine Oct 2012 #19
Obama said at the debate he and rmoney have the same views on SS. Biden said the opposite. mucifer Oct 2012 #20
About what I expected. Jennicut Oct 2012 #4
Bottom line is if we win VA, Romney is done. Drahthaardogs Oct 2012 #9
So there HAS been a drop for Obama in Florida TroyD Oct 2012 #5
This poll beats the so called 7 point lead Rmoney had in FL mzmolly Oct 2012 #29
It is encouraging but there will still be those here who take what is a tie race and will bemoan WI_DEM Oct 2012 #39
Exactly. Things appear to be slowly trending back to mzmolly Oct 2012 #41
actually its been back and forth Coexist Oct 2012 #45
i was hoping for better. mgcgulfcoast Oct 2012 #8
I am actually pleased. Jennicut Oct 2012 #10
You are correct, it is definitely in play, and in spite of the constant hitting of the President on still_one Oct 2012 #18
Rick Scott's scrubbing of the voter rolls may give Florida to Rmoney, Dawson Leery Oct 2012 #11
Not that bad, here ProSense Oct 2012 #12
I was actually surprised Obama won Florida in 2008 BluegrassDem Oct 2012 #13
Seniors want their vouchers? HockeyMom Oct 2012 #17
Florida, haven't you had enough yet? the bush disaster didn't create enough pain for you? How still_one Oct 2012 #14
They voted for Rick Scott ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #16
I know. You would think they had enough, no? still_one Oct 2012 #22
No offense to our Florida DUers.... ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #26
Me too HockeyMom Oct 2012 #23
it didn't used to be that way still_one Oct 2012 #44
unfortunately... ChiTownChavista Oct 2012 #27
I bet the Hispanic vote is underpolled ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #15
Florida Latinos do not vote solidly democratic zach1845 Oct 2012 #21
Axelrod thinks they can poll better than that this time ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #24
Obama IS leading among Florida Latinos , and many of the polls showing Romney JI7 Oct 2012 #28
Yup, look at what happens when ProSense Oct 2012 #31
I know he is winning latinons in FL zach1845 Oct 2012 #32
Puerto Ricans moving to Central Florida HockeyMom Oct 2012 #30
I am pretty pleased with this, actually. Lone_Star_Dem Oct 2012 #25
This is Fine, Even Good DarthDem Oct 2012 #33
Thanks a very sound assessment. WI_DEM Oct 2012 #43
Bush "won" Florida in 2000 by 537 votes. Obama doesn't have to win this state by a wide margin. Tony_FLADEM Oct 2012 #34
it's within the moe so not bad. Not as bad as I thought it might be. Thanks for the good news! WI_DEM Oct 2012 #35
Yah baby! Baitball Blogger Oct 2012 #36
The good news is the Senate continues to look good. aaaaaa5a Oct 2012 #37
In Senate race Nelson is up by 8!! WI_DEM Oct 2012 #38
Yeah, And . . . DarthDem Oct 2012 #42
Does PPP have Spanish-language interviewers? regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #40
Florida is still in the mix but he can have it underpants Oct 2012 #46
With 19% of Ohio already voted and 74-22 for Obama, Romney would have to win 60% of remaining voters WI_DEM Oct 2012 #47
The polls are getting ugly Doctor_J Oct 2012 #48
Correction - WE will be in deep shit..... FrenchieCat Oct 2012 #50
Romney is starting to lose some of that bump. ( Biden effect ) jimdeed Oct 2012 #49
Florida must be packed with Politicalboi Oct 2012 #51
Once the President makes clear the differences in regard to social security and medicare, those still_one Oct 2012 #52
People have been saying that for weeks...numbers are not moving. davidn3600 Oct 2012 #53
Actually they are moving and have been since the Biden debate in our direction. still_one Oct 2012 #54

rhombus

(696 posts)
6. Florida is very winnable for Obama.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:48 PM
Oct 2012

If Obama wins the debate on Tues, he'd most likely regain his Florida lead.

And I'm confident this will take place.

msongs

(67,406 posts)
3. not surprising since obama gave up SS as a clear cut difference - looks like he will never
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:46 PM
Oct 2012

make an unequivical SS support statement

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
7. I wish Obama would stop trying to be a 'blue dog'
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:48 PM
Oct 2012

If he would model himself after FDR, he would do better.

mucifer

(23,545 posts)
20. Obama said at the debate he and rmoney have the same views on SS. Biden said the opposite.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:59 PM
Oct 2012

It seemed a bit flip floppy to me and did not make me feel good about our President saying he and rmoney have the same SS policy.

Jennicut

(25,415 posts)
4. About what I expected.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:47 PM
Oct 2012

Romney is not ahead by 7 points but he has made up ground. But this is a close one and we may not get Florida. Nor do we need Florida. Obama can keep it close with a good debate Tuesday. I am more interested in VA as that may be more friendly to Dems in demos age wise.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
5. So there HAS been a drop for Obama in Florida
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:47 PM
Oct 2012

Obama was leading all Fall, so it's too bad this has happened.

Still, the PPP poll shows it is potentially still winnable if Obama can do well in the 2 next debates.

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
39. It is encouraging but there will still be those here who take what is a tie race and will bemoan
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:28 PM
Oct 2012

that rather than say, 'Wow, this is winnable.' Just think if this poll had been take four days ago? Obama might have been down by 5.

mzmolly

(50,992 posts)
41. Exactly. Things appear to be slowly trending back to
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:31 PM
Oct 2012

our President. I think that's a very good sign?

Florida is winnable, but there are paths to victory without it.

Coexist

(24,542 posts)
45. actually its been back and forth
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:05 PM
Oct 2012

I've been watching on electoralvote.com and it goes lean red to lean blue. It stayed lean blue for a couple weeks. Now lean red. I think it'll flip back.

Jennicut

(25,415 posts)
10. I am actually pleased.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:50 PM
Oct 2012

It is not 3 points or 7 points like some R leaning polls. PPP is a fair pollster and with a one point lead anything is possible. Can't write off this state but we don't need it either.

still_one

(92,192 posts)
18. You are correct, it is definitely in play, and in spite of the constant hitting of the President on
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:58 PM
Oct 2012

his debate performance, and the lack of hitting romney on his constant reversals and lies, we are still even says a lot

After the next debate we will do even better when romeny is fully exposed before all to see for what he really is




Dawson Leery

(19,348 posts)
11. Rick Scott's scrubbing of the voter rolls may give Florida to Rmoney,
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:51 PM
Oct 2012

even if Obama wins in a popular vote landslide.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
12. Not that bad, here
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:52 PM
Oct 2012

are the two previous polls.

Obama lead expands to 4 points in Florida

Raleigh, N.C.-- PPP's newest Florida poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by a 50-46 margin in the state. That represents a 3 point improvement for Obama since PPP's last poll of the state, which was conducted the weekend after the Republican convention. It represents the largest lead PPP has found for Obama in Florida since early June.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_923.pdf


No Bounce for Romney in Florida

Raleigh, N.C.-- PPP's newest Florida poll, conducted completely after the Republican convention, finds no change in the Presidential race there. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 48-47, exactly as he did on our last poll of the state five weeks ago.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_912.pdf


The President evidently got a convention bounce, but the race has always been close.

 

BluegrassDem

(1,693 posts)
13. I was actually surprised Obama won Florida in 2008
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:53 PM
Oct 2012

It's a tough state for a Democrat, no doubt about it. Florida and N.C. always seemed to me the states that would be the toughest for him this time around. We can still win Florida. This poll is within the margin of error, so it's basically tied. A superior GOTV could make all the difference in the world.

 

HockeyMom

(14,337 posts)
17. Seniors want their vouchers?
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:58 PM
Oct 2012

Latinos want to be second class citizens? Romney is running ads 2 to 1 to Obama now. Maybe Obama has given up in Florida?

still_one

(92,192 posts)
14. Florida, haven't you had enough yet? the bush disaster didn't create enough pain for you? How
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:55 PM
Oct 2012

uninformed can you be.

do you even give a damn about your grandkids?

Real estate is starting to come back, in spite of the republicans. Your state has been decimated by your wonderful choice of govenor

Were things ever this bad when the Democrats were in control of the state?

wake up before it is too late


ProudToBeBlueInRhody

(16,399 posts)
26. No offense to our Florida DUers....
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:05 PM
Oct 2012

...but why is every vile sex story or someone doing something insanely stupid over 50% of the time or more from Florida?

That should say something.

 

HockeyMom

(14,337 posts)
23. Me too
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:02 PM
Oct 2012

I have the misfortune to have to live here. Tranplanted New Yorker. Scott won with 1%. I fault Democrats with that for not challenging the MEDICARE FRAUD Space Alien. It seems to happen over and over.

Dems roll over and play dead here. Personally, I would love to see Obama win WITHOUT stupid Florida, which he CAN do.

ProudToBeBlueInRhody

(16,399 posts)
15. I bet the Hispanic vote is underpolled
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:56 PM
Oct 2012

They could swing a tight one come election day, should we get a bounce nationwide this and next week.

 

zach1845

(30 posts)
21. Florida Latinos do not vote solidly democratic
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:59 PM
Oct 2012

Due to the Number of Cuban latinos who vote mostly republican. I believe last election it was 56/44 or something alsong those lines. just a slight edge. It is not like the latino vote out west.

ProudToBeBlueInRhody

(16,399 posts)
24. Axelrod thinks they can poll better than that this time
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:03 PM
Oct 2012

Sure, it's Axelrod saying it, but I imagine the ground game has gotten stronger.

JI7

(89,250 posts)
28. Obama IS leading among Florida Latinos , and many of the polls showing Romney
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:07 PM
Oct 2012

with leads are leaving out the hispanic vote.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
31. Yup, look at what happens when
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:12 PM
Oct 2012

Nate Silver factors in the Hispanic vote: Florida goes from leans Romney with a 35 percent probability of an Obama win to leans Obama with a 53 percent probability of an Obama win.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251141125

 

zach1845

(30 posts)
32. I know he is winning latinons in FL
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:13 PM
Oct 2012

The ratio is way down its not 80/20 like in Arizona. more like 55 percent republican.
Due to cuban latino's. But if latinos come out strong it still helps. He can win FL with a strong showing of Latinos and if he wins FL it is more then likely because his country wide total would be problally at least +4% Florida is more republican then your average state. it was always gonna be uphill for him.

 

HockeyMom

(14,337 posts)
30. Puerto Ricans moving to Central Florida
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:09 PM
Oct 2012

Local paper had a big article on a major influx of Puerto Ricans to the Orlando area, AND that they are majority Democrats. Well, that is a hopeful sign. Maybe Scott will declare them ILLEGAL ALIENS, just like one stupid Republican Congresswoman said they were.

DarthDem

(5,255 posts)
33. This is Fine, Even Good
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:17 PM
Oct 2012

Remember, Florida is a must-win state for Willard: no Florida, no presidency. There's pretty much literally no realistic path to 270 for him without it.

So what this poll does is:

(1) Completely refute that narrative-driving-attempt by Mason-Dixon (the R +7) from a few days ago;

(2) Make it clear that the president is in good shape in an optional, luxury state for him, but an absolute-must-win for Mittbot; and

(3) Reverse the media narrative.


Obviously we'd rather be leading, but on the whole, a 1-point lead in a state that we don't need and the other side has to have is a good result in the current climate. And there's 23 days to go.

Tony_FLADEM

(3,023 posts)
34. Bush "won" Florida in 2000 by 537 votes. Obama doesn't have to win this state by a wide margin.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:21 PM
Oct 2012

Even if he won it by a thousand votes they can't say nothing. In addition, that 49% Romney has could be a rounding error and it's even closer.

DarthDem

(5,255 posts)
42. Yeah, And . . .
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:34 PM
Oct 2012

. . . Rmoney/Nelson ticket-splitters are not impossible to envision since Nelson is no one's idea of a liberal, but I sort of doubt that there's a nine-point gap between Obama's performance and Nelson's. Most likely, there's some sort of enthusiasm gap here working to our detriment, and there's plenty of time to fix it.

Moreover, Florida is a luxury state for us. Polls like this will make Mittens keep spending time and resources in Florida, which is great.

underpants

(182,807 posts)
46. Florida is still in the mix but he can have it
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:07 PM
Oct 2012

Romney HAS to win Florida....and Ohio --> and that is not happening

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)
47. With 19% of Ohio already voted and 74-22 for Obama, Romney would have to win 60% of remaining voters
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:10 PM
Oct 2012
 

Doctor_J

(36,392 posts)
48. The polls are getting ugly
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:15 PM
Oct 2012

Once again the president's embrace of republican policies is hurting him. If he tanks Tuesday's debate he's going to be in deep shit.

FrenchieCat

(68,867 posts)
50. Correction - WE will be in deep shit.....
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 01:47 AM
Oct 2012

Pres. Obama will be fine whether he "wins" or "Loses" the debate.

Perhaps if he just lies a lot, He'll "win", hey?

 

jimdeed

(14 posts)
49. Romney is starting to lose some of that bump. ( Biden effect )
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:18 PM
Oct 2012

That's nice...

I notice Romney's bump starting to fade a little well see how this next debate goes.

 

Politicalboi

(15,189 posts)
51. Florida must be packed with
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 01:51 AM
Oct 2012

White males. I still don't see how this can be this close with the leads Obama has with certain groups.

still_one

(92,192 posts)
52. Once the President makes clear the differences in regard to social security and medicare, those
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 02:17 AM
Oct 2012

numbers will pick up


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