2016 Postmortem

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts) Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:55 PM Oct 2012

PPP: NC 49-47 Romney-- as comparison here are their last results...

Obama 48% (-1)
Romney 48% (+1)
(taken prior to first debate)

Here are the results of their last 3 NC polls:

PPP (D) 9/27 - 9/30 981 LV 3.1 48 48 Tie
PPP (D) 9/7 - 9/9 1087 LV 3.0 48 49 Obama +1
PPP (D) 8/31 - 9/2 1012 LV 3.1 48 48 Tie

Obama won NC by 14.000 votes in 2008 or just 0.3% margin. It was a pleasant surprise in 2008.

http://twitter.com/ppppolls

GOTV folks!!!!!

14 replies

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PPP: NC 49-47 Romney-- as comparison here are their last results... (Original Post) WI_DEM Oct 2012 OP

From that Mutiny In Heaven Oct 2012 #1

Romney +3-5 would be okay. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #2

It's only 2-points 49-47--not bad. WI_DEM Oct 2012 #3

Not at all. Make Romney sweat there. nt geek tragedy Oct 2012 #7

Not bad, could be noise. n/t ProSense Oct 2012 #4

Here is how NC polls looked towards the end of 2008 campaign WI_DEM Oct 2012 #5

Good job. Thanks. n/t ProSense Oct 2012 #6

Sooo, the RCP Average was very close to what actually happened. Lex Oct 2012 #8

Close except that they predicted it would be a narrow McCain victory rather than a narrow Obama WI_DEM Oct 2012 #9

Oh, you're right. I looked at it wrong. Thanks. Lex Oct 2012 #10

No change, still with the MOE. Drahthaardogs Oct 2012 #11

Arrgh the curse of the Likely Voter. progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #12

AZ! morrissey fan Oct 2012 #13

welcome to Du and h=it is the senate race that is important. hrmjustin Oct 2012 #14

Mutiny In Heaven

(550 posts)

1. From that

Reply to WI_DEM (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:10 PM

Oct 2012

I'd be expecting maybe Romney + 4.

No real surprise, nor is it a big deal unless the poll shows Romney up by seven or eight; I think NC has been more of a "project" than something they really planned on winning this time around.

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

2. Romney +3-5 would be okay.

Reply to WI_DEM (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:12 PM

Oct 2012

NC was always going to be a very tough hold.

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)

3. It's only 2-points 49-47--not bad.

Reply to geek tragedy (Reply #2)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:18 PM

Oct 2012

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

7. Not at all. Make Romney sweat there. nt

Reply to WI_DEM (Reply #3)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:29 PM

Oct 2012

ProSense

(116,464 posts)

4. Not bad, could be noise. n/t

Reply to WI_DEM (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:20 PM

Oct 2012

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)

5. Here is how NC polls looked towards the end of 2008 campaign

Reply to WI_DEM (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:24 PM

Oct 2012

Final Results -- -- -- 49.4 49.7 Obama +0.3
RCP Average 10/28 - 11/3 -- -- 48.4 48.0 McCain +0.4
FOX News/Rasmussen 11/2 - 11/2 1000 LV 3.0 50 49 McCain +1
Reuters/Zogby 10/31 - 11/3 585 LV 4.1 50 49 McCain +1
ARG 10/31 - 11/3 600 LV 4.0 48 49 Obama +1
SurveyUSA 10/30 - 11/2 682 LV 3.8 49 48 McCain +1
PPP (D) 10/31 - 11/2 2100 LV 2.1 49 50 Obama +1
Mason-Dixon 10/29 - 10/30 625 LV 4.0 49 46 McCain +3
Research 2000 10/28 - 10/30 600 LV 4.0 45 47 Obama +2
Politico/InAdv 10/29 - 10/29 641 LV 3.7 48 48 Tie

ProSense

(116,464 posts)

6. Good job. Thanks. n/t

Reply to WI_DEM (Reply #5)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:26 PM

Oct 2012

Lex

(34,108 posts)

8. Sooo, the RCP Average was very close to what actually happened.

Reply to WI_DEM (Reply #5)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:29 PM

Oct 2012

WI_DEM

(33,497 posts)

9. Close except that they predicted it would be a narrow McCain victory rather than a narrow Obama

Reply to Lex (Reply #8)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:51 PM

Oct 2012

Lex

(34,108 posts)

10. Oh, you're right. I looked at it wrong. Thanks.

Reply to WI_DEM (Reply #9)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:02 PM

Oct 2012

Drahthaardogs

(6,843 posts)

11. No change, still with the MOE.

Reply to WI_DEM (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:05 PM

Oct 2012

We are not going to lose this.

progressivebydesign

(19,458 posts)

12. Arrgh the curse of the Likely Voter.

Reply to WI_DEM (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:10 PM

Oct 2012

This is why the polls have changed in the past week. They have shifted more heavily to their "likely voter" model, which is outdated and based on OLD assumptions.

morrissey fan

(76 posts)

13. AZ!

Reply to WI_DEM (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:35 PM

Oct 2012

He is close in a state I gave up on. Real question- when will he campaign in AZ?

hrmjustin

(71,265 posts)

14. welcome to Du and h=it is the senate race that is important.

Reply to morrissey fan (Reply #13)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:37 PM

Oct 2012

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