What to make of the PPP weekend polls of Ohio, Florida and North Carolina...

It tells me that Obama is coming back after his weak first debate. VP Biden has stemmed the bleeding and enthused democrats with his debate.

***Ohio 51-46 for Obama. This is Obama's firewall state. PPP reported that 19% of Ohio voters have already voted and the result was an amazing 74-22 margin for Obama. Hypothetically Romney would have to win 60% of the remaining voters to win the 'Great State of Ohio.' PPP isn't the only one to report that early voters overwhelmingly support the president, so did Survey USA in their poll last week. Interestingly enough their prior Ohio poll before the first debate had Obama up by 4--so a small increase for Obama.
Here are the final 2008 polls as a comparison:

Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
Final Results -- -- -- 51.5 46.9 Obama +4.6
RCP Average 10/27 - 11/3 -- -- 48.8 46.3 Obama +2.5
FOX News/Rasmussen 11/2 - 11/2 1000 LV 3.0 49 49 Tie
Reuters/Zogby 10/31 - 11/3 687 LV 4.1 49 47 Obama +2
SurveyUSA 10/30 - 11/2 660 LV 3.9 48 46 Obama +2
Strategic Vision (R) 10/31 - 11/2 1200 LV 3.0 46 48 McCain +2
PPP (D) 10/31 - 11/2 1208 LV 2.8 50 48 Obama +2


***Florida 49-48 for Romney. This was a five point swing toward Romney from their previous poll (50-46 for Obama in late September). The best thing about this poll is that it is basically a tie and takes the talking points away from that ludicrous Mason-Dixon poll that had Romney up by 7--51-44. Obama's somewhat weakened position hasn't hurt Sen. Nelson, who still leads by 8-points. Here are the 2008 polls for the final days of the campaign as a comparison:

Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
Final Results -- -- -- 51.0 48.2 Obama +2.8
RCP Average 10/27 - 11/3 -- -- 49.0 47.2 Obama +1.8
FOX News/Rasmussen 11/2 - 11/2 1000 LV 3.0 49 50 McCain +1
SurveyUSA 10/31 - 11/3 691 LV 3.8 50 47 Obama +3
Reuters/Zogby 10/31 - 11/3 678 LV 4.1 49 48 Obama +1
Strategic Vision (R) 10/31 - 11/2 1200 LV 3.0 49 47 Obama +2
PPP (D) 10/31 - 11/2 1717 LV 2.4 50 48 Obama +2


***North Carolina 49-47 for Romney (previous poll was 48-48, tie). I have to say I was actually happy when I saw this poll. Why? I expected it to be more like a 4-5 point Romney lead given that NC was a very narrow 0.3% (14,000 vote plurality) victory for Obama. But PPP reported that while the white vote declined for Obama in the state, the African-American vote is still strong and if, like 2008, Obama can get a massive turnout of AA voters it is possible he can win the state again. As a comparison here are the final 2008 polls of NC:

Poll Date Sample MoE McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread
Final Results -- -- -- 49.4 49.7 Obama +0.3
RCP Average 10/28 - 11/3 -- -- 48.4 48.0 McCain +0.4
FOX News/Rasmussen 11/2 - 11/2 1000 LV 3.0 50 49 McCain +1
Reuters/Zogby 10/31 - 11/3 585 LV 4.1 50 49 McCain +1
ARG 10/31 - 11/3 600 LV 4.0 48 49 Obama +1
SurveyUSA 10/30 - 11/2 682 LV 3.8 49 48 McCain +1
PPP (D) 10/31 - 11/2 2100 LV 2.1 49 50 Obama +1
Mason-Dixon 10/29 - 10/30 625 LV 4.0 49 46 McCain +3