against McCain. If, in fact, Obama wins Latinos by 60+ percentage points in AZ, then, yes, I would say it might be in play if latino turnout is strong.

So, Obama could actually have a chance there, if Latinos turn out to vote.

Even PPP had us down by nine prior to the first debate.

That would be quite a swing without any news to explain it.

This same group has polled AZ three times in the last year and the president has been up all three times (once by five points) when no other poll has shown a lead (and most of the time we're down substantially).

But wouldn't it be nice to wake up on election day and find that everyone else has missed something critical that's different about AZ this year?

That is what you call a head fake or purposeful bad poll to hopefully make the other campaign spend money there.

AZ is in now way going to go for Obama this time you can bet on it.

I'm in Maricopa county and Obama supporters have been very busy registering people. In my family alone we added 3 new democratic voters for AZ. All of us have used the early voting option. It's bound to happen sooner than later. Many people moving here are liberal!