2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew ABC/WaPo poll Obama 49/ Romney 46 (-1) LV. Swing States Obama 51/Romney 46
Conducted Oct 10 - 13
Pres. Obama approval is 50
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/10/enthusiasm-rises-for-romney-obama-has-a-right-track-retort/
ISSUES and ATTRIBUTES A challenge for Romney is that hes yet to break out on any issue, especially his key opportunity, the economy. Likely voters divide essentially evenly, 48-47 percent, on which candidate they trust more to handle the economy, Obama or Romney. Also, a tepid 51 percent of likely voters express confidence the economy will improve under Romney, vs. a similar 48 percent who are confident itll get better under Obama.
On other issues, Romney does best among likely voters, 51-43 percent vs. Obama, in trust to handle the deficit. But Obamas opened a lead, +13 points, in trust to handle Medicare, leads by a slight 9 points in trust to handle a major crisis and 7 points on international affairs. The two run evenly in trust to handle health care traditionally a better issue for Democrats but also in trust to handle taxes, customarily better for the Republican candidate.
Romneys opportunity is reflected in the overwhelming judgment, by 69-18 percent among registered voters, that he won the first debate; 35 percent say they came away with a better opinion of him overall a much better impact than Obama realized in 2008. The outcome of the first debate was a surprise; in a pre-debate ABC/Post poll, 56 percent expected an Obama win.
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much more at link.
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)I don't see how he can compete w/ Romney w/ those numbers. Doesn't look good.
Now where the hell is TroyD.
still_one
(92,209 posts)debate what overconfidence does.
Biden clarified and helped the cause tremendously, and the President has to continue to point out the lies, misrepresentations, and reversals
This is far from over
However, we have the issues on our side, we MUST make sure they are crystal clear to the public, no ambiguity
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)with the first debate? There is zero correlation. That's just fear talking. The fear that a lot of Dems reek of due to years of losing. I am overconfident and will continue to be so because that confidence is in a man and campaign that has defied many odds and has run a near flawless campaign w/ the exception of one night. One night in which he failed and not because he didn't try but because he didn't meet the base's expectations. So screw that. I don't have confidence in handwringers, but I have confidence in BO. He's got my back, I've got his come hell or high water.
still_one
(92,209 posts)reversals or misrepresentations, and we paid for it. That is a result of over-confidence
And as far as your assessment that it was because he did not mee the base's expectations, that is true, but he also DID not meet the independents expectations, and the polls showed it.
When he indicated that there was no difference in his plan for social security and romneys, that was a disaster, and biden corrected that loud and clear
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)Jesus the projection issues... There is jack zero basis for that assertion. None. Nada. Unless you are part of the campaign team and know something the rest of us don't you are just projecting.
still_one
(92,209 posts)identical to his, something was wrong
Maximumnegro
(1,134 posts)Tarheel_Dem
(31,234 posts)like your exuberance, and the articulate way you express it.
still_one
(92,209 posts)nicely put. I'm with you.
grasswire
(50,130 posts)So stop saying he didn't meet his base's expectations.
still_one
(92,209 posts)AverageJoe90
(10,745 posts).....where's geek_tragedy when you need him to add a little pessimism to your thread? LOL.
mimi85
(1,805 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)Doesn't look like they are on RCP yet.
It will probably kill RCP to have to put them up this morning.
bushisanidiot
(8,064 posts).
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)you know the whores over at Fox "News" are thinking this.
bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)Democrats are lacking in enthusiasm.We are ahead in early voting we have out registered republicans and yet the rethugs are supposed to be more enthused about voting. Not buying that bullshit they are going to have to show me more proof than a poll showing it
How could we possibly lack in enthusiasm if we are ahead in early voting?
treestar
(82,383 posts)And we all have known since early on that Mittens does not thrill the right. The media is so full of shit, it's amazing they can get any color to come onto the TV other than brown.
Azathoth
(4,609 posts)still_one
(92,209 posts)court to continue with the momentum
Cosmocat
(14,565 posts)Some much needed good news.
Hopefully the other polls see some recalibration, and also, yes, our guy needs to be magic tomorrow night.
MFM008
(19,814 posts)morning Joe and that bunch downplays BOs improving numbers.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)woolldog
(8,791 posts)tarheelsunc
(2,117 posts)The swing state numbers are especially telling.
VirginiaTarheel
(823 posts)ProfessionalLeftist
(4,982 posts)Since WHEN is 9 points considered "slight"?
Tarheel_Dem
(31,234 posts)Only since Obama became POTUS.
dchill
(38,502 posts)One of the most deliberately misused adjectives EVER. 9 points is never "slight" in any election poll.
Setting' up the steal?
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)Democrats4All
(54 posts)This is great news. Obama has better numbers than before the debate plus he's got a big edge on early voting. Seems like good news to me.
budkin
(6,703 posts)And hopefully after Tuesday Obama can pull away again.
Lone_Star_Dem
(28,158 posts)That's what I want to see.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)or weird online thing.
Very encouraging. Obama still needs to bring it Tuesday.
progressivebydesign
(19,458 posts)Pirate Smile
(27,617 posts)woolldog
(8,791 posts)4 points in this survey. As high as 5 in others. I don't get it.
Pirate Smile
(27,617 posts)Wash. Post/ABC Poll: Obama up 49-46 w. likely voters, 50-43 w. reg. voters & 51% approval.
LisaL
(44,973 posts)SunSeeker
(51,563 posts)What I've been seeing in polls too.
Nobody from either campaign has contacted/polled me and I live in a swing state...and will cast my ballot when early voting begins.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Last week there was a story about Romney shifting some people and offices from PA to OH to deal with the early voting there. Since it was not part of the narrative, the stories did not say that a panicky Romney HQ was looking at early voting numbers in Ohio and freaking right the fuck out (we now know why!), sending in extra troops to fill the gaps. Fill the gaps? Obama's had people working the blocks and precincts for 16 months. Romney's going to send in a few more offices after early voting's already started? It's a joke. Major vs. minor leagues.
This is the as yet little discussed factor that will be the big news on the morning after the election.
Ultimately, the difference is telling. Obama invested in infrastructure and organization - people on the ground who could talk with and encourage people in their everyday lives. Romney's camp has counted on massive ad buys in the last month. Put another way, Obama respects the people and the process, while Romney is, as always, nothing but a shiny flim-flam artist.
demgrrrll
(3,590 posts)ballots for her and my stepfather. She told them that she had them and that she loved the POTUS. They will check back with her about the mailing date. No one has ever come by my mothers house and she has been a registered Dem in the area for over 20 years.
Cha
(297,275 posts)abumbyanyothername
(2,711 posts)20% have voted early. 76% of that 20% voted for Obama. 24% for Romney.
This means that Obama has 15.2% of the final vote in pocket. While Romney has 4.8% of the final vote. In other words, Obama has a 10.4% lead in votes already cast.
Romney needs to win the rest of the voting by 13% (10.4/.8) to carry Ohio.
He won't.
Game over.
LisaL
(44,973 posts)They come from a poll.
I certainly wouldn't make the conclusion you did based on one poll.
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)demwing
(16,916 posts)I was waiting on a mainstream poll showing what we all hoped to see - bounce back. Got it.
Expect Nate Silver to show a bump as well...
Doctor Jack
(3,072 posts)He just needs to crush Romney on Tuesday and we can wrap this thing up
BluegrassDem
(1,693 posts)So this is very good news. I can sleep tonight.
imgbitepolitic
(179 posts)LOOK at the pdf details. 47% say Romney is Not honest and trustworthy.
littlemissmartypants
(22,691 posts).
tandem5
(2,072 posts)the reality of the trend lines in the PDF. Have to keep up that narrative - Shoo reality! Shoo!
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)A 5-point lead for Obama in the battleground states is not considered a significant difference?
Does it have to get to 10 points for it to be 'significant'?
TroyD
(4,551 posts)He went from 47 last month to 46 this month?
ProudToBeBlueInRhody
(16,399 posts)Now time to hit the coup de grace tomorrow night. Rmoney needs to be exposed.
Response to jezebel (Original post)
Post removed
morningfog
(18,115 posts)bushisanidiot
(8,064 posts)what if that's not enough! what if the sky falls?
Looking forward to hearing all of the "concern trolls" this morning
so I can laugh at them.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)In ABC poll, 1/2 respondents said "very difficult" to find job 15 months ago. Only 1/3 say so now.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Romney's National lead is now down to 0.2
One more good poll for Obama today and it may be gone completely.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
TroyD
(4,551 posts)Post poll shows Obama's advantage on Medicare has gone *up* significantly. Now 53-38. Biden's doing?
ProSense
(116,464 posts)7 points, tied with his highest number achieved April 2012
Oct 13: Obama 50, Romney 43
Sep 29: Obama 49, Romney 44
Sep 9: Obama 50, Romney 44
Aug 25: Obama 46, Romney 47
ProSense
(116,464 posts)http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021541671
TroyD
(4,551 posts)ABC/Wash Po Poll shows that 52% of voters say Pres. Obama deserves credit for lower joblessness.