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jezebel

(1,772 posts)
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 12:10 AM Oct 2012

New ABC/WaPo poll Obama 49/ Romney 46 (-1) LV. Swing States Obama 51/Romney 46

Conducted Oct 10 - 13

Pres. Obama approval is 50

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/10/enthusiasm-rises-for-romney-obama-has-a-right-track-retort/

ISSUES and ATTRIBUTES — A challenge for Romney is that he’s yet to break out on any issue, especially his key opportunity, the economy. Likely voters divide essentially evenly, 48-47 percent, on which candidate they trust more to handle the economy, Obama or Romney. Also, a tepid 51 percent of likely voters express confidence the economy will improve under Romney, vs. a similar 48 percent who are confident it’ll get better under Obama.

On other issues, Romney does best among likely voters, 51-43 percent vs. Obama, in trust to handle the deficit. But Obama’s opened a lead, +13 points, in trust to handle Medicare, leads by a slight 9 points in trust to handle a major crisis and 7 points on international affairs. The two run evenly in trust to handle health care — traditionally a better issue for Democrats — but also in trust to handle taxes, customarily better for the Republican candidate.

Romney’s opportunity is reflected in the overwhelming judgment, by 69-18 percent among registered voters, that he won the first debate; 35 percent say they came away with a better opinion of him overall — a much better impact than Obama realized in 2008. The outcome of the first debate was a surprise; in a pre-debate ABC/Post poll, 56 percent expected an Obama win.
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much more at link.

70 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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New ABC/WaPo poll Obama 49/ Romney 46 (-1) LV. Swing States Obama 51/Romney 46 (Original Post) jezebel Oct 2012 OP
This is terrible. Obama is losing Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #1
none of should ever take anything for granted. I would hope we have learned from the 1st still_one Oct 2012 #5
What does overconfidence have to do Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #8
Everything to do with it. The president took it for granted, and did not call romney on the lies, still_one Oct 2012 #15
How do you know he took it for granted? Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #19
not to belabor the point, but when the President said that romney's social security plan was still_one Oct 2012 #28
point belabored Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #51
I think you both make good points. Cautious optimism best describes my feelings. But, I.... Tarheel_Dem Oct 2012 #16
agreed still_one Oct 2012 #27
+1 smackd Oct 2012 #22
It was the media whose expectations apparently weren't met. grasswire Oct 2012 #34
Really. I guess most the people on DU didn't count, and the polls meant nothing. /nt still_one Oct 2012 #42
LOL mzmolly Oct 2012 #17
I'm not worried about TroyD...... AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #49
You scared the crap out of me! mimi85 Oct 2012 #52
I'm very happy to see those numbers TroyD Oct 2012 #56
+1 bushisanidiot Oct 2012 #62
"A clear lead for Mitt Romney"... Dawson Leery Oct 2012 #2
I'm sick and tired of the media saying bigdarryl Oct 2012 #3
Exactly. LisaL Oct 2012 #6
Damn right treestar Oct 2012 #53
Fuckin' A n/t Azathoth Oct 2012 #4
I suspected that the trend would move our direction after Biden. Now the ball is in the Presidents still_one Oct 2012 #7
Absolutely Cosmocat Oct 2012 #54
cant wait to see how MFM008 Oct 2012 #9
this is more like it. WI_DEM Oct 2012 #10
Thanks! woolldog Oct 2012 #11
Whoa! That's an amazing poll for us. I bet RCP doesn't add it until tomorrow afternoon. tarheelsunc Oct 2012 #12
Huge News VirginiaTarheel Oct 2012 #13
"a SLIGHT 9 points"? ProfessionalLeftist Oct 2012 #14
"Since WHEN is 9 points considered "slight"?" Tarheel_Dem Oct 2012 #18
"slight" - in this case is... dchill Oct 2012 #47
Good: But Obama’s opened a lead, +13 points, in trust to handle Medicare flamingdem Oct 2012 #20
better numbers than before the debate Democrats4All Oct 2012 #21
Finally rebounding from that debate BS budkin Oct 2012 #23
Now that's what I'm talking about! Lone_Star_Dem Oct 2012 #24
Is Andrew Sullivan still on suicide watch? This is a real poll, not some robo junk geek tragedy Oct 2012 #25
Considering that is LV, then it's doubly-good. nt progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #26
I believe Registered Voters have Obama up 7 (vs 3 Likely Voters). Pirate Smile Oct 2012 #30
A bit disappointing that the enthusiasm gap persists. woolldog Oct 2012 #31
Obama is Over 50% approval - at 51%. Pirate Smile Oct 2012 #32
As long as democrats still get out there and vote, I don't care how enthusiastic they say they are. LisaL Oct 2012 #41
TOLD you I'd clean things up! SunSeeker Oct 2012 #29
<snip> ffr Oct 2012 #33
Obama has spent tens of millions on organization alcibiades_mystery Oct 2012 #35
So true. My mother is in Florida, someone came by the house today to make sure she had the absentee demgrrrll Oct 2012 #37
Thanks for that report from Florida, Degrrrll :) nm Cha Oct 2012 #44
I really don't see how Romney can make up the gap in OH abumbyanyothername Oct 2012 #38
You can't take these numbers as gospel. LisaL Oct 2012 #40
+1,000! Surya Gayatri Oct 2012 #50
SIGH (relief!) demwing Oct 2012 #36
Alright, 6 polls today showing Obama in the lead Doctor Jack Oct 2012 #39
I don't think this poll has been Obama friendly in the past BluegrassDem Oct 2012 #43
47% imgbitepolitic Oct 2012 #45
karma is real eom littlemissmartypants Oct 2012 #46
I like the angle they chose for the article's title and content versus... tandem5 Oct 2012 #48
Bye bye debate bounce. Now Obama, come out HARD Tuesday and FINISH THIS ASSHOLE OFF ! RBInMaine Oct 2012 #55
"battleground states . . .dividing by 51-46 percent, Obama-Romney (not a significant difference)" TroyD Oct 2012 #57
So Romney actually dropped 1 point among LV? TroyD Oct 2012 #58
Good ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #59
Post removed Post removed Oct 2012 #60
You signed up today to post that? Get lost, I think. morningfog Oct 2012 #66
Oh NO! CONCERN CONCERN CONCERN! bushisanidiot Oct 2012 #61
Important number on Unemployment TroyD Oct 2012 #63
RCP has added the ABC poll (& the Politico one) TroyD Oct 2012 #64
Medicare TroyD Oct 2012 #65
The President's lead among registered voters is ProSense Oct 2012 #67
President Obama gains from improving economy ProSense Oct 2012 #68
Jobs number TroyD Oct 2012 #69
K&R thevoiceofreason Oct 2012 #70

Maximumnegro

(1,134 posts)
1. This is terrible. Obama is losing
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 12:14 AM
Oct 2012

I don't see how he can compete w/ Romney w/ those numbers. Doesn't look good.



Now where the hell is TroyD.





still_one

(92,209 posts)
5. none of should ever take anything for granted. I would hope we have learned from the 1st
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 12:19 AM
Oct 2012

debate what overconfidence does.

Biden clarified and helped the cause tremendously, and the President has to continue to point out the lies, misrepresentations, and reversals

This is far from over

However, we have the issues on our side, we MUST make sure they are crystal clear to the public, no ambiguity




Maximumnegro

(1,134 posts)
8. What does overconfidence have to do
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 12:23 AM
Oct 2012

with the first debate? There is zero correlation. That's just fear talking. The fear that a lot of Dems reek of due to years of losing. I am overconfident and will continue to be so because that confidence is in a man and campaign that has defied many odds and has run a near flawless campaign w/ the exception of one night. One night in which he failed and not because he didn't try but because he didn't meet the base's expectations. So screw that. I don't have confidence in handwringers, but I have confidence in BO. He's got my back, I've got his come hell or high water.

still_one

(92,209 posts)
15. Everything to do with it. The president took it for granted, and did not call romney on the lies,
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 12:28 AM
Oct 2012

reversals or misrepresentations, and we paid for it. That is a result of over-confidence

And as far as your assessment that it was because he did not mee the base's expectations, that is true, but he also DID not meet the independents expectations, and the polls showed it.

When he indicated that there was no difference in his plan for social security and romneys, that was a disaster, and biden corrected that loud and clear

Maximumnegro

(1,134 posts)
19. How do you know he took it for granted?
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 12:32 AM
Oct 2012

Jesus the projection issues... There is jack zero basis for that assertion. None. Nada. Unless you are part of the campaign team and know something the rest of us don't you are just projecting.

still_one

(92,209 posts)
28. not to belabor the point, but when the President said that romney's social security plan was
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 01:01 AM
Oct 2012

identical to his, something was wrong


Tarheel_Dem

(31,234 posts)
16. I think you both make good points. Cautious optimism best describes my feelings. But, I....
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 12:29 AM
Oct 2012

like your exuberance, and the articulate way you express it.

grasswire

(50,130 posts)
34. It was the media whose expectations apparently weren't met.
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 01:21 AM
Oct 2012

So stop saying he didn't meet his base's expectations.

 

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
49. I'm not worried about TroyD......
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 03:16 AM
Oct 2012

.....where's geek_tragedy when you need him to add a little pessimism to your thread? LOL.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
56. I'm very happy to see those numbers
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 05:31 AM
Oct 2012

Doesn't look like they are on RCP yet.

It will probably kill RCP to have to put them up this morning.

 

bigdarryl

(13,190 posts)
3. I'm sick and tired of the media saying
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 12:17 AM
Oct 2012

Democrats are lacking in enthusiasm.We are ahead in early voting we have out registered republicans and yet the rethugs are supposed to be more enthused about voting. Not buying that bullshit they are going to have to show me more proof than a poll showing it

treestar

(82,383 posts)
53. Damn right
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 04:16 AM
Oct 2012

And we all have known since early on that Mittens does not thrill the right. The media is so full of shit, it's amazing they can get any color to come onto the TV other than brown.

still_one

(92,209 posts)
7. I suspected that the trend would move our direction after Biden. Now the ball is in the Presidents
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 12:21 AM
Oct 2012

court to continue with the momentum

Cosmocat

(14,565 posts)
54. Absolutely
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 04:23 AM
Oct 2012

Some much needed good news.

Hopefully the other polls see some recalibration, and also, yes, our guy needs to be magic tomorrow night.

tarheelsunc

(2,117 posts)
12. Whoa! That's an amazing poll for us. I bet RCP doesn't add it until tomorrow afternoon.
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 12:24 AM
Oct 2012

The swing state numbers are especially telling.

dchill

(38,502 posts)
47. "slight" - in this case is...
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 02:53 AM
Oct 2012

One of the most deliberately misused adjectives EVER. 9 points is never "slight" in any election poll.
Setting' up the steal?

Democrats4All

(54 posts)
21. better numbers than before the debate
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 12:45 AM
Oct 2012

This is great news. Obama has better numbers than before the debate plus he's got a big edge on early voting. Seems like good news to me.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
25. Is Andrew Sullivan still on suicide watch? This is a real poll, not some robo junk
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 12:51 AM
Oct 2012

or weird online thing.

Very encouraging. Obama still needs to bring it Tuesday.

 

woolldog

(8,791 posts)
31. A bit disappointing that the enthusiasm gap persists.
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 01:07 AM
Oct 2012

4 points in this survey. As high as 5 in others. I don't get it.

Pirate Smile

(27,617 posts)
32. Obama is Over 50% approval - at 51%.
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 01:11 AM
Oct 2012

Wash. Post/ABC Poll: Obama up 49-46 w. likely voters, 50-43 w. reg. voters & 51% approval.

LisaL

(44,973 posts)
41. As long as democrats still get out there and vote, I don't care how enthusiastic they say they are.
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 02:04 AM
Oct 2012

ffr

(22,670 posts)
33. <snip>
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 01:12 AM
Oct 2012
GOTV...However, Obama’s effort looks to be better targeted: Among registered voters who’ve been contacted by his campaign, 68 percent support him. Among those who’ve heard from the Romney campaign, fewer, 53 percent, are Romney supporters.

What I've been seeing in polls too.

Nobody from either campaign has contacted/polled me and I live in a swing state...and will cast my ballot when early voting begins.
 

alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)
35. Obama has spent tens of millions on organization
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 01:25 AM
Oct 2012

Last week there was a story about Romney shifting some people and offices from PA to OH to deal with the early voting there. Since it was not part of the narrative, the stories did not say that a panicky Romney HQ was looking at early voting numbers in Ohio and freaking right the fuck out (we now know why!), sending in extra troops to fill the gaps. Fill the gaps? Obama's had people working the blocks and precincts for 16 months. Romney's going to send in a few more offices after early voting's already started? It's a joke. Major vs. minor leagues.

This is the as yet little discussed factor that will be the big news on the morning after the election.

Ultimately, the difference is telling. Obama invested in infrastructure and organization - people on the ground who could talk with and encourage people in their everyday lives. Romney's camp has counted on massive ad buys in the last month. Put another way, Obama respects the people and the process, while Romney is, as always, nothing but a shiny flim-flam artist.

demgrrrll

(3,590 posts)
37. So true. My mother is in Florida, someone came by the house today to make sure she had the absentee
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 01:43 AM
Oct 2012

ballots for her and my stepfather. She told them that she had them and that she loved the POTUS. They will check back with her about the mailing date. No one has ever come by my mothers house and she has been a registered Dem in the area for over 20 years.

abumbyanyothername

(2,711 posts)
38. I really don't see how Romney can make up the gap in OH
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 01:45 AM
Oct 2012

20% have voted early. 76% of that 20% voted for Obama. 24% for Romney.

This means that Obama has 15.2% of the final vote in pocket. While Romney has 4.8% of the final vote. In other words, Obama has a 10.4% lead in votes already cast.

Romney needs to win the rest of the voting by 13% (10.4/.8) to carry Ohio.

He won't.

Game over.

LisaL

(44,973 posts)
40. You can't take these numbers as gospel.
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 02:02 AM
Oct 2012

They come from a poll.
I certainly wouldn't make the conclusion you did based on one poll.

 

demwing

(16,916 posts)
36. SIGH (relief!)
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 01:31 AM
Oct 2012

I was waiting on a mainstream poll showing what we all hoped to see - bounce back. Got it.

Expect Nate Silver to show a bump as well...

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)
39. Alright, 6 polls today showing Obama in the lead
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 01:49 AM
Oct 2012

He just needs to crush Romney on Tuesday and we can wrap this thing up

 

BluegrassDem

(1,693 posts)
43. I don't think this poll has been Obama friendly in the past
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 02:07 AM
Oct 2012

So this is very good news. I can sleep tonight.

tandem5

(2,072 posts)
48. I like the angle they chose for the article's title and content versus...
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 03:08 AM
Oct 2012

the reality of the trend lines in the PDF. Have to keep up that narrative - Shoo reality! Shoo!

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
57. "battleground states . . .dividing by 51-46 percent, Obama-Romney (not a significant difference)"
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 05:40 AM
Oct 2012

A 5-point lead for Obama in the battleground states is not considered a significant difference?

Does it have to get to 10 points for it to be 'significant'?

Response to jezebel (Original post)

bushisanidiot

(8,064 posts)
61. Oh NO! CONCERN CONCERN CONCERN!
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 06:52 AM
Oct 2012

what if that's not enough! what if the sky falls?

Looking forward to hearing all of the "concern trolls" this morning
so I can laugh at them.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
63. Important number on Unemployment
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 07:28 AM
Oct 2012

In ABC poll, 1/2 respondents said "very difficult" to find job 15 months ago. Only 1/3 say so now.

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
64. RCP has added the ABC poll (& the Politico one)
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 07:30 AM
Oct 2012

Romney's National lead is now down to 0.2

One more good poll for Obama today and it may be gone completely.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
65. Medicare
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 07:53 AM
Oct 2012

Post poll shows Obama's advantage on Medicare has gone *up* significantly. Now 53-38. Biden's doing?

ProSense

(116,464 posts)
67. The President's lead among registered voters is
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 08:11 AM
Oct 2012

7 points, tied with his highest number achieved April 2012

Oct 13: Obama 50, Romney 43
Sep 29: Obama 49, Romney 44
Sep 9: Obama 50, Romney 44
Aug 25: Obama 46, Romney 47

TroyD

(4,551 posts)
69. Jobs number
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:16 AM
Oct 2012

ABC/Wash Po Poll shows that 52% of voters say Pres. Obama deserves credit for lower joblessness.

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