2016 Postmortem

book_worm

(15,951 posts) Mon Mar 7, 2016, 07:41 PM Mar 2016

"If Sanders Can't Win Michigan, where can he win besides small caucus states?"

The Midwestern industrial state, which holds its primary Tuesday, is the ideal audience for Sanders’ campaign message about “unfair” trade agreements, income inequality and a “rigged economy.”...

Yet Clinton has consistently led in polls — a Monmouth University Poll out Monday showed her up 13 points. “If he can’t win in Michigan, where can he win besides these small caucus states?” said Susan Demas, publisher of Inside Michigan Politics, a political analysis newsletter. Sanders campaign manager Jeff Weaver is calling Michigan “a critical showdown.”...

Cook Political Report analyst David Wasserman said the outlook for Sanders is bleak. “The Democratic race is fundamentally over at this point,” he said, estimating Sanders would have to win three-fifths of remaining party delegates just to draw even with Clinton. Delegate-rich states next up on the calendar, including Florida, also favor Clinton...

After losing Southern primary states with large black voter populations to Clinton — as well as Massachusetts — Michigan is among Sanders’ final opportunities to prove that his economic message has broad appeal and that he can make inroads with minorities. Up to 30% of the Democratic electorate is expected to be African American...

http://www.wlbz2.com/news/nation-now/michigan-could-be-pivotal-for-sanders-to-mount-comeback/72583410

11 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

"If Sanders Can't Win Michigan, where can he win besides small caucus states?" (Original Post) book_worm Mar 2016 OP

He doesn't need to win to win delegates, and every delegate counts. pat_k Mar 2016 #1

Because that strategy has worked so well for Marco Rubio? brooklynite Mar 2016 #3

The states that are "good for him"... Garrett78 Mar 2016 #5

Add Washington and Oregon to that list.nt artislife Mar 2016 #6

And California. Kentonio Mar 2016 #8

If you actually have any interest... pat_k Mar 2016 #11

How do you expect him to close the delegate gap... tarheelsunc Mar 2016 #9

You seem to have missed the point. pat_k Mar 2016 #10

Vermont's the only state he'll win. noamnety Mar 2016 #2

chuckle artislife Mar 2016 #7

Reply hazy. Ask again later. NurseJackie Mar 2016 #4

pat_k

(9,313 posts)

1. He doesn't need to win to win delegates, and every delegate counts.

Reply to book_worm (Original post)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 08:07 PM

Mar 2016

We can't give up on states that may look impossible now. We can't know what might happen to turn things upside down in the next 3 months. I hope he campaigns all out in the states that are "good" for him, and those that look "bad." (It would be nice if we could clone him.)

In the states that are "good" for him, he just needs to win by larger margins to win more delegates than expected. And in the states that look "bad," he just needs to fight to close the gap. And I think both are doable.

And, even if we somehow can't get him over the top, we still need to fight for every delegate we can win, every dollar we can raise, every supporter we can win over, right through the convention. Yes, winning is prize, but the closer we can make it, the more we are challenging the status quo.

More on reasons to stay in until the convention, whatever the cumulative numbers are.

Topic: I don't think so...
(i.e., I don't think he should drop out)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511423349#post12

And, just an FYI. In Michigan, about every 0.7% translates to a delegate. Push those numbers up Michigan!

brooklynite

(94,679 posts)

3. Because that strategy has worked so well for Marco Rubio?

Reply to pat_k (Reply #1)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 08:19 PM

Mar 2016

If he doesn't win, then Clinton gets MORE delegates, and he doesn't catch up...I think they call that "math"

Garrett78

(10,721 posts)

5. The states that are "good for him"...

Reply to pat_k (Reply #1)

Tue Mar 8, 2016, 03:49 AM

Mar 2016

...have relatively few delegates. When the only states you're likely to win are the likes of Idaho, Wyoming and Montana, and you're losing by double digits in the most populous states (the ones with a Democratic electorate that more closely mirrors the overall/national Democratic electorate), basic math says you don't stand a chance.