2016 Postmortem

brooklynite

(94,585 posts) Mon Oct 15, 2012, 01:24 PM Oct 2012

The Politirati Poll (D & R Insiders predict Obama win)

What does Washington’s political elite really think? Over the past two weeks, we surveyed 74 Beltway insiders—37 Democrats, 37 Republicans—on the election, the state of politics, and what comes next. We wanted honesty, so we offered to keep their answers anonymous (in some cases, they allowed us to quote them). Among the respondents: Romney adviser Eric Fehrnstrom and Obama adman Jim Margolis; Kerry right-hand Bob Shrum and McCain consigliere Mark Salter; former senators Bob Bennett (R-Utah) and Tom Daschle (D-N.D.). On Capitol Hill we found a lot of strong opinions—and even, occasionally, a little consensus.

82% predict an Obama win; 54% by 2 or more points.

91% predict Democrats hold the Senate

21% chance Democrats take the House.

6 replies

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The Politirati Poll (D & R Insiders predict Obama win) (Original Post) brooklynite Oct 2012 OP

Well, that 21% chance doesn't bode well. joycejnr Oct 2012 #1

Actually Cosmocat Oct 2012 #4

Regardless of your ideology or party who do you think would make the best leader: 57% Obama Lone_Star_Dem Oct 2012 #2

This just bothers me so much Cosmocat Oct 2012 #5

If insiders courseofhistory Oct 2012 #3

Saw this early today, I think it's really interesting. Waiting For Everyman Oct 2012 #6

joycejnr

(326 posts)

1. Well, that 21% chance doesn't bode well.

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 01:31 PM

Oct 2012

But the first two numbers are interesting. Now if the voting machines are programmed to actually add up the real vote count...

Cosmocat

(14,565 posts)

4. Actually

Reply to joycejnr (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 02:36 PM

Oct 2012

that number is better than I would have it.

I think the minute before the first debate, the Dems might have had a 20% shot at it, more than the pollsters were wanting to admit, and I think they stood to flip 20, give or take.

But, with the air taken out of the President's post convention/47% comment surge, it is a pretty big longshot to take the House. I still would hope for them to get low to mid teens to flip.

Lone_Star_Dem

(28,158 posts)

2. Regardless of your ideology or party who do you think would make the best leader: 57% Obama

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 02:23 PM

Oct 2012

Regardless of your ideology or party who do you think would keep the world safer: 68% Obama.

Some of those answers are a bit of a surprise.

Cosmocat

(14,565 posts)

5. This just bothers me so much

Reply to Lone_Star_Dem (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 02:40 PM

Oct 2012

most people KNOW Romney is a half wit moron who is so desperately craven to win the office he will LITERALLY say anything at any time to anyone, even if it is in direct contradiction to what he said a second earlier, and many know that Barrack Obama is a pretty darn good president.

I live him a good bit, but I can see where someone might not view him as favorably as I do.

I don't get how people can gin themselves into believing he is as bad as some do.

I cannot fathom, for the life of me, wtf would actually vote for Romney.

This thing should not be close at all.

courseofhistory

(801 posts)

3. If insiders

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 02:30 PM

Oct 2012

think this then it's another indication R won't be able to work across the aisle and they think he probably won't/cant.

Waiting For Everyman

(9,385 posts)

6. Saw this early today, I think it's really interesting.

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 04:41 PM

Oct 2012

Glad you posted it.

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