2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum538 projection of Michigan: Clinton >99%
RCP Aggregate: Clinton +20.4
Pollster Aggregate: Clinton +18
Plenty of recent posts about Sanders "closing the gap", but I'm sure someone will complain that this is "discouraging" or "attempting to force him out".
rbrnmw
(7,160 posts)Lucinda
(31,170 posts)Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)Lucinda
(31,170 posts)Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)She may start having money problems after Super Tuesday...... again.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)bvf
(6,604 posts)Thanks.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)And allow me to add: BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHHAHAAAAA
pat_k
(9,313 posts)And MSU poll just out (which in not in the current 538 analysis) indicates Sanders win is within margin of error.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1440875
FWIW
TSIAS
(14,689 posts)It seems as if 538 usually overstates Clinton's lead. That being said, I don't think it's likely that he wins outright.
silvershadow
(10,336 posts)dubyadiprecession
(5,722 posts)Logical
(22,457 posts)WillyT
(72,631 posts)Logical
(22,457 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)progressoid
(49,999 posts)coyote
(1,561 posts)Thank you for this OP brooklynite. My first recommend to one of your posts.
GummyBearz
(2,931 posts)Feel the bern
TeeYiYi
(8,028 posts)TYY
Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)Had to.
Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)Art_from_Ark
(27,247 posts)they open a ski resort in Death Valley
vintx
(1,748 posts)right?
SMC22307
(8,090 posts)randome
(34,845 posts)[hr][font color="blue"][center]Aspire to inspire.[/center][/font][hr]
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)artislife
(9,497 posts)aspirant
(3,533 posts)the "SCIENTIFIC" nature of polls.
Does E=MC2 vary whether it is daytime vs night?
PoliticAverse
(26,366 posts)vdogg
(1,384 posts)538 can only go by the info given. Indy's were 30% of the voters and went for a Sanders 70/30. It's hard to account for that in open primaries. The pollsters are going to need to reevaluate how they account for independents.
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)Hillary won't be able to get the independents . . . . especially if it's against Trump who will draw them.
That is probably why ALL of those head to head polls have Bernie winning against all the GOP candidates and Hillary losing to most of them. The people are trying to tell you something if anyone will listen.
vdogg
(1,384 posts)She just can't get them versus Bernie. I expect her to perform close to target in Florida (closed primary), that's a big prize. She'll stay even in the Midwest. I think she'll probably, closely, win Illinois. It's an open primary but Bernie is gonna have a damn hard time overcoming Chicago (3 Detroits worth of votes). Ohio is a wild card right now, similar demographics to Michigan and an open primary. If Bernie wins there it won't be a runaway victory, and remember, delegates are awarded proportionally. I'm still very confident that Hillary gets the nom, but this primary is going to drag on to the convention.
aspirant
(3,533 posts)The AA community will have a real choice, Bernie vs Rahm + Hills
If won't take much to tie Rahm to Hills and the issues of school closings, recall and AA murder cover-ups will give Bernie all the AA votes he needs.
"damn hard time" this is a joke, right?
vdogg
(1,384 posts)Hillary has absolutely nothing to do with Rahm Emanuel or Chicago politics. You'd have a far easier time tying Obama to Emmanuel. Trust me when I tell you that Chicago is Obama country. Hillary being close to him will do her far better here than in Michigan and Detroit.
Hell Hath No Fury
(16,327 posts)Seriously? You must be VERY young if you are not familiar with the history between Hillary, Rahm, and the DLC. If Bernie were smart he would tie her to Rahm (as she SHOULD be), trade agreements, Union busting, and bang that like fucking gong.
Response to Hell Hath No Fury (Reply #44)
vdogg This message was self-deleted by its author.
vdogg
(1,384 posts)Do tell, cause that among other things is what OP is trying to imply. Them interacting in the past is irrelevant as to how Rahm Emanuel is running the city today. Two separate people. This guilt by association stuff is getting idiotic.
Cal Carpenter
(4,959 posts)There is a long history with Rahm Emanuel and the Clintons going back to Bill's first presidential primary.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rahm_Emanuel
Here's a gem:
"While working on the Clinton campaign Emanuel was a paid retainer of the investment bank Goldman Sachs". Cute.
If you are interested in their connections, just google: "rahm emanuel hillary clinton". There are tons of hits showing the links between Emanuel and both Bill and Hillary Clinton spanning ancient history to recent interviews, jobs in the administration to policy work, and everything else you can imagine.
To say "Hillary has absolutely nothing to do with Rahm Emanuel " is just flat out incorrect.
vdogg
(1,384 posts)You can only beat that Goldman Sachs drum for so long. Rahm is mayor of Chicago, not Hillary. What control does she have over ( as the poster above you alluded to) AA murder cover ups, union busting IN CHICAGO, Chicago's crime rate and gang violence, etc? She has nothing to do with Rahm in this context, no matter what their past interactions. Rahm and Rahm alone is mayor of Chicago, he sinks or swims alone. Nice try though.
Cal Carpenter
(4,959 posts)I was responding to this: "Hillary has absolutely nothing to do with Rahm Emanuel or Chicago politics". This is simply incorrect.
I shared information and links (for the record, the Goldman Sachs quote was just an aside). I shared that information respectfully and in good faith. I don't know what you are getting at with your "Nice try though" comment. Are you accusing me of trying to inform you of something? I plead guilty.
Clearly you are not here for a good faith conversation about this. So I'm deleting the majority of what I just wrote here because it isn't worth it. Just keep in mind that avoiding the truth does your candidate a disservice.
marions ghost
(19,841 posts)Bernie is the best Anti-Trump.
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)Hope this knocks a little of the smugness from the Hillariates. That's all we've been getting around here is smugness and condescension.
A little less would be nice, it they can manage it.
vdogg
(1,384 posts)I actually like Bernie. His supporters, not so much.
wildeyed
(11,243 posts)They are like a weather forecast. Based on science and historical data. But they are still wrong sometimes
No one said anyone was infallible. And the 538 forecast have favored Sanders plenty.
Also, referring to Clinton supporters as Hillariates seems hostile and smug, too. Perhaps if you chose your language more carefully, Clinton supporters would be less condescending? It's like when people I know complain about ALWAYS getting bad service, And I am like, hmmmmm.... Could the problem be elsewhere
Android3.14
(5,402 posts)I'm just glad no one was trying to discourage or attempt to force him out.
Depaysement
(1,835 posts)What happened? Did the weathervane break?
Don't worry, the wind will die down and Hillary will probably win in the end.
Katashi_itto
(10,175 posts)Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)I can tell you this brooky, I knew Nate was wrong last week. It was screamingly obvious to anyone with a synapse firing.
randome
(34,845 posts)If it's just Sanders' messaging, where is the evidence to support that?
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Aspire to inspire.[/center][/font][hr]
Bluenorthwest
(45,319 posts)Nate has math, I have people. It was very easy to see that his projections were very incorrect, stated with extreme certainty of course but incorrect nonetheless. What I knew is it was going to be close. Leaning Bernie. But no blow out for Clinton, nor for him.
Nate and the MSNBC desk set along with DU's hubris drunk centrists were assuming a large victory for her in Michigan, they were writing the obit for the winner. With glee. And smug glee which is of course the worst and most cloying kind. They should all be ashamed and they should all consult a chiropractor, they may have slipped a disk carrying all that water.
Act_of_Reparation
(9,116 posts)ericson00
(2,707 posts)so 538 wasn't actually wrong.
speaktruthtopower
(800 posts)TIME TO PANIC
(1,894 posts)Kittycat
(10,493 posts)As a good reminder that people, not polls, elect leaders.