2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumMI Election Projection, Monday March 7: Clinton 48.9, Sanders 40.3
http://www.electionprojection.com/stonecutter357
(12,697 posts)ucrdem
(15,512 posts)eridani
(51,907 posts)stonecutter357
(12,697 posts)eridani
(51,907 posts)Sanders group
Number of subscribers: 912
Number of people trashing: 161
Number banned: 273
Ratio of subscribers to banned: 3.34
Clinton group
Number of subscribers: 341
Number of people trashing: 271
Number banned: 660
Ratio of subscribers to banned: 0.52
stonecutter357
(12,697 posts)eridani
(51,907 posts)Solid commitment to the War on Some Drugs?
Support of the death penalty?
Convincing Obama to trash Libya?
Support of the Iraq war?
Opposition to Glass-Steagall?
Any Sanders supporter has a list of issues that have inspired their support. Clinton supporters tend to not be able to tell you why they support her.
Broward
(1,976 posts)eridani
(51,907 posts)noamnety
(20,234 posts)further restrictions on abortions.
Sancho
(9,070 posts)to say that we cannot or haven't said why we support Hillary instead of Bernie assumes you cannot read or something is very wrong with you. Otherwise, you are denying reality or you are a troll or something that I can't imagine. I really don't know.
As to your list...
The SC says the death penalty is constitutional for now, and most on death row are STATE criminals. Hillary clearly says the Federal Government should only reserve the death penalty for the worst crimes (like Timothy McVeigh), but that if the SC declares it's unconstitutional it's ok with her. The President has to follow the law.
Libya had TWO Democratic elections after a brutal dictator was brought down by the US and several European partners. Libya REFUSED more intervention and aid. You can't make Libyans vote for someone else any more than they can make you vote for Hillary. The mid-east is a mess, and there's no answer. The US did NOT put an army in Libya - is that what you want?
Hillary did not vote for an Iraq War. She voted (along with most of Congress) as a representative of NYC to allow Bush to enforce the UN Resolution while US Generals were standing there lying about WMDs. No one knew that Bush and Cheney were planning a full-scale war. I'm old enough to remember Korea, Vietnam, and everything in between. I remember Carter being drawn into a crisis with Iran (cost him an election) and I'm aware that every GOP President starts a war. Obama still has not been able to get out of the mid-East. Bernie can stand there all he wants (like LBJ and Carter) and say what he would do, but he won't be able to make the world whatever he wants. Bernie is an international lightweight and armchair quarterback with no real understanding. That's why he makes mistakes. If I voted against every war for 30 years - I'd be right half the time by accident - and WRONG half the time even though no one remembers those times. Hillary actually knows what she is doing.
Glass-Steagall doesn't work!! It does not cover the dark money that caused most of the 2008 recession. New laws are better, but the GOP keeps trying to prevent their implementation. Bernie doesn't seem to understand it, even though Warren agrees that no law will work if not enforced.
Meanwhile, Bernie is wrong on education (which is why the NEA endorsed Hillary), and I think he's wrong on a bunch of other things (like guns where the NRA praised Bernie after the last debate: http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-dem-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/03/nra-bernie-sanders-220367#ixzz42IEGF6e7)!! Bernie was wrong to oppose Obama's bail out, and he is wrong on immigration. Hillary is a trained and experienced lawyer. She can pick SC judges while Bernie doesn't have a clue. Hillary has international experience while Bernie doesn't have a clue. It goes on and on, but Hillary is much better prepared to be President.
We could argue for many more months, but the majority of Democrats and Americans prefer Hillary in the polls and in the primaries. I'll paste an excerpt (thanks GeorgeII). The Bernie supporters here represent a small subset and Bernie will not win the primary:
Of those 21 states, Clinton has won 13 of them with a total population of 94,823,435. Sanders has won 8 of them with a total population of 22,760,078
So, Clinton has been victorious in states with 81% of the total population of all states that have voted, Sanders only 19%.
On top of that, with a total national population of 318,857,056, Clinton has already won in states with 30% of the overall population, Sanders only 7%
So, who is truly winning the primaries this year?
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)eridani
(51,907 posts)--most of its former black African inhabitants. Clinton bloody well did vote for the Iraq war, and almost everyone on DU (plus the majority of Dems in Congress at the time) knew that Bush and Cheney had been planning full-scale war since 2000. What wars do you think are so wonderful? I'd argue that WW II was necessary, but not a single war since. Hillary has done every single thing wrong internationally, from the coup in Honduras which just slaughtered an indigenous woman leader, to arming the Saudis who are now slaughtering civilians in Yemen. Judgment is more important than experience.
Woohoo!! The differential slaughter of minorities by the state is legal! Aren't you proud? Ditto for the mass imprisonment of minority drug users.
The majority if independents prefer Sanders, and they are 40% of the electorate vs 30% for Democrats.
Big banks backed up the dark money mortgages, many of which were approved with foreknowledge of the likelihood of so many homeowners being able to pay. Their profits come with perfectly billions of dollars worth of legal bets that they wouldn't be able to pay.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)I wouldn't even discount the possibility of a Sanders win, though I admit it's a longshot.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-michigan-presidential-democratic-primary
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/
http://www.bing.com/search?q=Election+2016+Primaries&p1=%5BFUI+els%3D%22Primaries%22%5D&FORM=ELHEAD&ajax=ElectionsBPI&axID=28&pIG=0F2124BA3B8F43A7B2F99080BEBD8E98
A systemic failure in polling is possible but it is not likely and certainly a not a systemic failure of that magnitude. The demographics are all wrong for him.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)I do think Sanders has a maybe one in five chance of winning. If he can't, the logic of his campaign literally disappears; Michigan and its out-dated economy of a half-century ago have been his focal points all along.
That said, as an armchair analyst I think a lot of observers majorly discount his chances for no objective reason. MI has a way of being contrary.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)I don't see it, my friend... This whole primary is a repeat of 08 with different characters. Demography is destiny
I have seen confounding results from caucuses . I have seen confounding results from primaries. But I don't believe I have seen aggregate polling be off by 20 point in a primary. That is a lot. And you have pollsters that were still in the field yesterday.
You also have pollsters like
Monmouth
Marist
Epic-MRA -MI based pollster
MRG- MI based pollster
with strong track records in the field. Michigan has been heavily polled.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)Irony #1: Clinton was running (and still is running) to Obama's left.
joshcryer
(62,276 posts)I don't like to do predictions, but you are a friend and ally here, so I'm going to say it's going to be pretty bad for my candidate
60/40.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)And bluntly if he can't win MI it gets kind of silly after that.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... campaign is all but OVER for him.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)He'll be another wonderful might-have-been like my first choice, O'Malley.
But if he can't win the literal ground zero for his trade argument, it's a vanity run at that point.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)I remember buying Brian Wilson's "comeback" cd in the early 90s... He was always pushing the envelope in his music. In the liner notes he wrote that he tried to make his music as original as possible within market realities. I think politicians do that with their positions. You can stake out the "best" positions in the world but how effective are they if you can't get pluralities or majorities to support them.
JudyM
(29,274 posts)cannabis_flower
(3,765 posts)Blus4u
(608 posts)rather nicely. And it is just one word, however, elegantly put!
Peace