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Princeton Consortium- "President Obama Has A 84% Chance Of Winning."
In national polls, the race has swung back three points since the Presidential debate to a narrow Obama lead. This return has been steady over time, and so the role of the VP debate is unclear. Combined with state polls, the data suggest that the effect of Mitt Romney’s performance was an instantaneous jump of 5.5 points, which has now subsided back to where polls were in August. The decline in the state poll meta-analysis has been blocked by Ohio. Today, President Obama’s November re-elect probability is 84% – still a Russian-roulette situation for the Democrats.
...
It is hard to prevent desires/fears from coloring one’s reading of data. Pundits and journalists are often expected to comment even when there’s not enough information to do so. I would rather they pull a Ludwig.
....
And the money shot (my words)
As I said, I think Romney’s win probability is about 16%. To a Democrat, that’s a six-shooter with one shell labeled “R-outcome”. To a Republican, it’s loaded with five shell labeled “D-outcome”. Yet in comments, the Republicans are the giddy ones. This says so much to me about both sides.
...
It is hard to prevent desires/fears from coloring one’s reading of data. Pundits and journalists are often expected to comment even when there’s not enough information to do so. I would rather they pull a Ludwig.
....
And the money shot (my words)
As I said, I think Romney’s win probability is about 16%. To a Democrat, that’s a six-shooter with one shell labeled “R-outcome”. To a Republican, it’s loaded with five shell labeled “D-outcome”. Yet in comments, the Republicans are the giddy ones. This says so much to me about both sides.
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/15/the-passing-storm/#more-7552
Some of the comments are instructive:
Peter Principle // Oct 15, 2012 at 12:56 pm
Some pollster wrote Josh Marshall over at TPM and noted that whenever his polls show Republicans losing, they want to kill him, but whenever his polls show Democrats losing they want to kill themselves.
Goes with the territory, I guess.
It may be a generational thing: If you’re a Democrat and you came of political age in the late 70s, and your formative years were the 80s and early 90s, then you probably spent a lot of time internalizing the message that Republicans usually win and Democrats usually lose.
I speak from personal experience on this.
Some pollster wrote Josh Marshall over at TPM and noted that whenever his polls show Republicans losing, they want to kill him, but whenever his polls show Democrats losing they want to kill themselves.
Goes with the territory, I guess.
It may be a generational thing: If you’re a Democrat and you came of political age in the late 70s, and your formative years were the 80s and early 90s, then you probably spent a lot of time internalizing the message that Republicans usually win and Democrats usually lose.
I speak from personal experience on this.
Sam Wang // Oct 15, 2012 at 11:48 am
I worked in Congress for a year, 1995-96. When I arrived in Washington DC, my favorite Democrat was Adlai Stevenson. When I left, it was Lyndon Johnson. Democrats can fight.
I worked in Congress for a year, 1995-96. When I arrived in Washington DC, my favorite Democrat was Adlai Stevenson. When I left, it was Lyndon Johnson. Democrats can fight.
