2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumDoes Bernie Drop Out if He Loses MI Tonight?
In any realistic scenario, if he can't win a state like Michigan, he has no shot. Strength in the rust belt could offset Hillary's dominance of the south, but there's no way he comes close to her by winning just in the Northeast and in the Plains.
Two questions will be answered tonight:
1. Does Bernie have a realistic shot at winning?
2. If not, will he drop out of the race once it's over for him, or is he staying in to the end on principle?
Response to firebrand80 (Original post)
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firebrand80
(2,760 posts)I would be a huge blow of she lost, no doubt about it, but she could still realistically see herself bouncing back. Bernie, not so much.
Kittycat
(10,493 posts)yourpaljoey
(2,166 posts)Skwmom
(12,685 posts)firebrand80
(2,760 posts)How is FBI Primary 4 words?
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,711 posts)"Keep hope alive."
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts).... but fully embrace the right wing smears against her.
Funny that.
seekthetruth
(504 posts)There's plenty of available smears out there with respect to Hillary, and they're valid. Now we can add to the list her support for fracking.
A progressive she is not. And you Hillary supporters still don't get why she's so unappealing to the rest of us Democrats?
marions ghost
(19,841 posts)Sometimes things said in the heat of a debate are later wisely set aside when faced with the economic and national security consequences of shutting down the technique that unlocks huge domestic sources of energy that would otherwise have to come from Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran, she said.
Shadowflash
(1,536 posts)You mean documented historical facts in the record?
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)tazkcmo
(7,300 posts)Punkingal
(9,522 posts)Jester Messiah
(4,711 posts)cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)FSogol
(45,525 posts)The math is against him and his wins haven't been by big enough margins to overcome his deficit. If the Democrats had winner-take-all states like the GOP, it might be different.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)I could declare myself eligible for the NFL draft. However, since I haven't played football since my freshman year in high school and wasn't even any good back then, I'm not really "in" the draft.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)In_The_Wind
(72,300 posts)FSogol
(45,525 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)FSogol
(45,525 posts)And I am currently not sad at him staying in. He has helped to push the party to the left.
bkkyosemite
(5,792 posts)FSogol
(45,525 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)to fundamentally change the race. That is an arbitrary date and totally meaningless.
Hilary's folks were saying he wounldnt last until March 1. Then they were saying March 2 was the drop date. They said he'd win only one state, then they said two. He has won 8 and will win more.
Drop out date predictions from Hilary's side are not reality based and have repeatedly been wrong.
FSogol
(45,525 posts)the Florida, Illinois, Missouri, NC, Ohio, Idaho, Arizona, Utah primaries and caucuses. That's 941 delegates.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)but HIllary will not have clinched it. There will still be half the states to go. No fundamental change.
hack89
(39,171 posts)the margin of victories Bernie would need to overtake and then win would become unrealistic. He is not going to suddenly start blowing out Hillary in large diverse states. You are right in one regard - there has been no fundamental change in Bernie's campaign and his message. Things are not going to change for Bernie without that change.
Being in a big hole is a big problem for Bernie - it means that winning is not good enough. He has to win by big margins in big diverse states. He has not shown he can do that.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)yourpaljoey
(2,166 posts)restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)Nonhlanhla
(2,074 posts)I think he will take it to the end, even though his path to the nomination is narrowing, because he would like to strengthen the movement that supports his ideas. I actually think that is a good thing. I do hope that as it becomes clear to him that she is almost certainly going to be the nominee, that he will stop the negative attacks. No reason to give ammunition to the GOP.
Logical
(22,457 posts)djean111
(14,255 posts)for many years. It is foolish to think that they are not armed and ready. They hate her.
Why is Hillary actually going with real lying negative attacks?
Nonhlanhla
(2,074 posts)But are distortions of her record, plus innuendos.
monicaangela
(1,508 posts)I can answer that question:
Logical
(22,457 posts)HERVEPA
(6,107 posts)vintx
(1,748 posts)You know it's funny, in the past I've been the one going around saying we have to vote for the Dem in the GE, because SCOTUS.
This candidacy with all it's Rovian smears and dirty tricks has finally done it for me.
Godhumor
(6,437 posts)After NY.
He will have a favorable stretch after the 15th, and he would and should argue that it is important to wait until after he sees whether that momentum helps him carry NY. If he can't, then the last, and highly unlikely, path to nomination is closed off.
Math tells the story, but the thing with probabilities is that you never know when you're going to land on the long shot to win.
kennetha
(3,666 posts)he's going to get creamed in the industrial Midwest, but his rabid supporters will keep pouring good money after bad. Thing is nobody will care. His free media will dry up completely. He's toast -- yesterday's news.
Human101948
(3,457 posts)Why is it you Hillary fans love that corporate baksheesh?
It will make it impossible to change the status quo.
JohnnyLib2
(11,212 posts)Answer: no
noamnety
(20,234 posts)winter is coming
(11,785 posts)Octafish
(55,745 posts)Is he under threat of indictment, too?
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)I guess I can understand why some might think he'll flip-flop on that, given their choice of candidate. It's what they expect (and seemingly aren't bothered by).
I doubt if Bernie ever expected to take Michigan. Demographics there strongly favor Hillary. He's looking for at least a decent proportional delegate haul. Many have said all along that due to the primary schedule, Bernie won't start catching up until after the 15th. I suspect, however, that the early momentum afforded Hillary's campaign by the schedule may depress the Bernie vote just enough for her to win. Some will think it's hopeless.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)catch up in?
onecaliberal
(32,894 posts)Clintons under investigation as we speak, she's the one who has no business even running.
hack89
(39,171 posts)Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)has floated the idea recently of a Clinton/Sanders ticket. HE understands the numbers. Of course, Hillary couldn't consider a 74 year old V.P. By next Tuesday, all will become clear.
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)But I'm by no means convinced Bernie would accept (or if Hillary's paymasters would allow it).
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)We cannot have a 69 year old / 74 year old ticket.
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)Does it indicate Bernie's interest, I wonder...or was it just the CM speculating?
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)PWPippin
(213 posts)However, should Bernie consider someone quite far to his right as VP who will in two years be in her 70's and may incur even more memory losses as she ages?
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)I mean, why not?
However, I think he would not be a good choice. One of the main jobs of the Veep is to build support for the President's agenda. I don;t think Sanders would be very good at that. For one thing, he is not known as being a coalition builder in Congress (one of his greatest weaknesses, IMO) and also, I think he would have trouble committing himself to her agenda. He is a main driven by ideals and passion... not exactly the best qualities for a political deal broker.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)and neither Clinton or Sanders seem like they are withering on the trail.
However, I think it's a moot point. She will pick someone else.
navarth
(5,927 posts)Gwhittey
(1,377 posts)and this is just way I see it. If I was Sanders I might of if this campaign was run fairly. Ok even with the DNC changing debates to favor Hillary, DNC not running a Get Out the Vote drives because it would Hurt Hillary, the media machine from start not even trying to be overtly bias. If he ignoring all those things as just politics, the Karl Rove like dirt tricks. The way her camp made it seem Sanders was a racist is a insult. That man is better man than me. And that is something I have never been able to say about someone I could vote for. HRC not so much, I mean if I was offered the amount of money she is I know dam well I would do same thing and screw everyone else, I would take the money. That is why a my vote for Sanders is a vote for a man that is a lot better than me.
Protalker
(418 posts)He called off his bid because he sees Cruz as the competition. Can you imagine his SCOTUS picks? We need independents to win. I learned as a gay man the need for straight support to win the argument.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)firebrand80
(2,760 posts)Jarqui
(10,130 posts)I wouldn't go anywhere until that plays out. Laws were broken. Someone on Hillary's team is going to take the fall for that. It's not going to come out nearly as rosy as Hillary claims. And it won't be the GOP's fault on this one.
Buzz Clik
(38,437 posts)The FBI's involvement is to study various security aspects, not HRC's "criminal activity."
Jarqui
(10,130 posts)after what has come out? It's almost impossible from what I've seen.
When Bill Clinton Pardoned His Former CIA Director over Classified Documents on His Home Computer
How can the FBI make the case that Hillary didn't do what the past CIA director was convicted of? Classified documents have been found on her server at home - unauthorized. And she had to have known they would with retroactive classification if nothing else.
And even if the FBI and Justice department were dumb enough to try that, do you think the GOP Senate and House are going to sit idly by that? They'll be threatening impeachment if she gets elected - and as of right now, they have the numbers and the case to pull impeachment off.
They will be going to the American public claiming the Dems are asking America to elect a criminal and under the criminal laws, they'll have a darn good argument. She signed a non disclosure agreement agreeing to abide by the very criminal laws that have been broken - so she can'y claim she didn't know - even though negligence is not a legal excuse for this anyway.
The GOP are playing it smart right now. Laying in the weeds. Let Hillary get the nomination and then nail her. Their candidate will have a cake walk to the White House.
And further, why has the Clinton Foundation been subpoenaed for information on their donors that also got help from the State Department. How does that fit with "to study various security aspects"? Donating to the Clinton Foundation when Hillary's State Department helped entities out is a security problem? I don't think so. You are lamely whitewashing those subpoenas but fooling no one.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)MineralMan
(146,329 posts)Now, if you ask about March 15, I think it's entirely possible that the results we'll all be able to see the next day will demonstrate that there is no path available to him to end up as the nominee. On March 16, Bernie Sanders will have to look at the situation and make a decision about whether or not to continue actual campaigning or to stop doing that.
If he decides to stop, I expect he'll make a statement endorsing Hillary Clinton. If he doesn't, he'll wait until the convention to endorse her. I don't know Senator Sanders, so I can't predict how he will react to the March 15 results. I know how I'd react, though, and my reaction would be to try to convince my supporters to work toward a Democratic victory in November. Bernie, better than most, understands what a disaster having Republicans in control of all three branches of government would be.
But, no, he's not going to withdraw after today's contests. There's no statistical reason for him to do that.
Boomer
(4,168 posts)I want Sanders to reach the convention with as large a delegate block as he can muster and use that as leverage to jolt the DNC out of its complacency.
Agreed.
DinahMoeHum
(21,809 posts)n/t
RufusTFirefly
(8,812 posts)Who's with me?
Boom!
Another contribution.
Bernie thanks you for asking!
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)then this Independent turned Democrat will not be allowed to have a major roll at the convention. To continue to attack the presumptive nominee would be selfish and unnecessarily destructive. He'll have a decision to make.
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)RFK was winning in June. A sad analogy.
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)But she stayed in punching Obama citing Bobby Kennedy's assassination in June as her reason for staying in and refusing to concede when the last vote was cast in June.
In other words, Hillary fans have got nothing on this subject.
Trust Buster
(7,299 posts)Sanders is an Independent. If he wants to play a role at the convention, he better not try to damage Hillary for destructive motives after she becomes the clear nominee.
AtomicKitten
(46,585 posts)And another excellent reason for him to stay in.
Waiting For Everyman
(9,385 posts)Why doesn't HIllary want all to be included?
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)to assume what one person stating an opinion on the site equals the candidate thinking the exact same thing. I also remember 2008 far too clearly to forget that far too many on DU only want to wait for all the votes when their favored candidate is losing.
Waiting For Everyman
(9,385 posts)It sure looked like her saying that on CNN.
Nice try, no cigar.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)The less time she has to spend on Bernie, the more she can spend on beating the republicans. It's not rocket science.
Waiting For Everyman
(9,385 posts)that she wants to end the Primary? Check, so who are you arguing with, yourself?
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)Everything is a fucking nefarious scheme with some people. Even stating the obvious. Carry on with your fantasies, I have no desire to force you to face reality.
Autumn
(45,120 posts)bigwillq
(72,790 posts)I feel he will continue to June, and I hope he does, but he won't be the nominee.
myrna minx
(22,772 posts)One of the 99
(2,280 posts)Why should he? As long as he has the money to continue he should keep going. He is bringing up important issues.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)but after next Tuesday, his will be a Campaign-in-name-only.
The writing was on the wall after Super Tuesday. He'll fall farther behind today, and next Tuesday will cement the nomination for Clinton.
Sid
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)I can see him scaling back a bit after the 15th, but I don't think he will formally suspend his campaign.
mmonk
(52,589 posts)the people and with that carries great responsibility.
Kelvin Mace
(17,469 posts)Matariki
(18,775 posts)longship
(40,416 posts)Merryland
(1,134 posts)there are still between 1000 & 2000 delegates up for grabs, right? Why should he drop out?
tularetom
(23,664 posts)Ask a stupid question and you get a stupid response.