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matt819

(10,749 posts)
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 04:12 PM Oct 2012

Polls and probability

Yes, polls and the entire polling process have become politicized, and IMHO they are, what's the word?, pointless. The info on Gravis highlights this failing, and as long as illegitimate/biased polls are incorporated into Nate Silver's (and others') meta analyses, the results are useless. From the early days of computers - Garbage in, Garbage out.

Has anyone come up thought to compare polling results with the various (and smaller number of) analysts who come up with election probabilities. Seems to me that the major disconnect between the polls that show a dead heat and and Obama election probability of 80+% warrants at least a modicum of coverage by someone, anyone, maybe even the so-called MSM.



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Polls and probability (Original Post) matt819 Oct 2012 OP
The Law Of Large Numbers Suggests The Good And Bad Polls Will Cancel Themselves Out DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #1
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