What are Nate's thoughts on the Gallup poll?

That's the one poll that concerns me. The Gallup report out today claims Romney is 'surging' in the swing states and making gains with women.

The Obama Campaign has released a memo challenging the veracity of the Gallup results.

lucabrasi

(117 posts)

3. No mention of Gallup yet

Reply to TroyD (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 05:16 PM

Oct 2012

GallopingGhost

(2,404 posts)

4. I don't buy it.

Reply to TroyD (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 05:17 PM

Oct 2012

No woman with a brain would vote Romney/Ryan.

Yahoo headlines are claiming the same crap...Romney surging, blah, blah, blah...bullsh*t.

GreenPartyVoter

(72,377 posts)

5. You have to take evangelical women into account, though.

Reply to GallopingGhost (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 05:22 PM

Oct 2012

GallopingGhost

(2,404 posts)

7. I do *sigh*

Reply to GreenPartyVoter (Reply #5)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 05:24 PM

Oct 2012

Voting against their own best interest, for men who would like to take them and their daughters back to the Dark Ages, and hoping to drag the rest of us down with them.

Zoeisright

(8,339 posts)

20. Yeah, and four of them are in my family.

Reply to GreenPartyVoter (Reply #5)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 12:48 AM

Oct 2012

I can't understand how they can be so stupid.

HooptieWagon

(17,064 posts)

6. You assume republican women have brains.

Reply to GallopingGhost (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 05:23 PM

Oct 2012

Sarah Palin.
Michelle Bachman.
I could go on...

GallopingGhost

(2,404 posts)

8. LOL

Reply to HooptieWagon (Reply #6)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 05:25 PM

Oct 2012

I think those two cover it nicely.

GreenPartyVoter

(72,377 posts)

18. Some do. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins are both pro-choice.

Reply to HooptieWagon (Reply #6)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 07:15 PM

Oct 2012

HooptieWagon

(17,064 posts)

19. Yep. Two have brains.

Reply to GreenPartyVoter (Reply #18)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 12:29 AM

Oct 2012

How many don't? There are dozens of my local and state republican women politicians who don't... for instance Pinellass County Comissioner Nancy Bostock who voted to remove flouride from county water supplies because it was a UN conspiracy. And need I get into the rank and file teabaggers?
OK, republican men are equally stupid... but they aren't voting away their own reproductive rights.

flamingdem

(39,313 posts)

10. But .. but .. that's what they'd paid for, they're just

Reply to GallopingGhost (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 05:30 PM

Oct 2012

doing their job

That's capitalism.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)

9. It's an old poll started

Reply to TroyD (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 05:29 PM

Oct 2012

the day after the debate, Oct. 5, with a margin of error of 4 to 6 points. It's also flawed.

Nate:

Looking at breakouts of "swing states" from national polls is just dumb when there are dozens of actual swing state polls out every week.

http://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight

Obama pollster Joel Benenson calls the method used to identify likely voters flawed. "In the last election, Gallup's registered voter model — not its likely voter model — was a much more accurate predictor, with their likely model missing the mark in 2010 by 9 points right before the election," Benenson says. "That explains why Gallup's results are way out of line with a dozen recent swing state polls that show the president with a double-digit lead among women."

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/10/15/swing-states-poll-women-voters-romney-obama/1634791/

Maximumnegro

(1,134 posts)

16. The O team is data driven to a fault if they

Reply to ProSense (Reply #9)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 05:45 PM

Oct 2012

say Gallup is being bogus then I believe it 100%.

fugop

(1,828 posts)

12. On the other hand...

Reply to TroyD (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 05:33 PM

Oct 2012

Rasmussen's daily swing state tracking poll has Obama pulling into a tie with Mitt after being down for six days straight. So it's more recent than the Gallup one.

But as others have noted, I have no idea what the methodology is in these polls that lump a bunch of states together. Do they weight them somehow?

Who knows? But Ras swing tracking has a trendline at least.

fujiyama

(15,185 posts)

21. Grouping swing states together is stupid

Reply to fugop (Reply #12)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 01:11 AM

Oct 2012

Especially when you have two big prizes like OH and FL, and some as small as NH...

Maximumnegro

(1,134 posts)

14. Why does Gallup concern you as opposed to the ABC/Wapo poll?

Reply to TroyD (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 05:42 PM

Oct 2012

What does Gallup have going for it that the ABC doesn't.

Maximumnegro

(1,134 posts)

15. If the Obama campaign is challenging

Reply to TroyD (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 05:43 PM

Oct 2012

the Gallup results that means Gallup is wrong. The O campaign is straightforward to a fault.

Tree-Hugger

(3,370 posts)

2. And he'll keep gaining. n/t

Reply to lucabrasi (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 05:14 PM

Oct 2012

flamingdem

(39,313 posts)

11. Up to 66.0%

Reply to lucabrasi (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 05:32 PM

Oct 2012

Nate Silver ?@fivethirtyeight

Obama up a tick in our forecast. 66.0% to win Electoral College, vs. 63.3% yesterday. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com

courseofhistory

(801 posts)

13. Let's keep it goin UP!!! n/t

Reply to lucabrasi (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 05:35 PM

Oct 2012

Cosmocat

(14,564 posts)

17. the numbers are the numbers

Reply to lucabrasi (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 07:03 PM

Oct 2012

it seems pretty sure the bleeding has stopped, at least that Romney's momentum has been stopped, and there does seem to be some momentum moving toward BO again.

just amazing how quickly the gains that BO took so long to build were erased.

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