it's a rightwing myth that Reagan only won at the debate
He was leading earlier than that.

and Mondale and Dukakis and Bob Dole and Barry Goldwater and George McGovern also thought they were coming back and the laugh was on them.

Correct?

I was running around doing housework (like dishes, HA) so was listening, not watching.

...that five-point lead is just the guest's opinion. Current poll composites give Obama a 1.3-point lead -- and that's likely to drop or even vanish with tomorrow's PPP numbers already admitted to be very good for Romney. Leads that small have been overcome before. Tomorrow's debate, plus the work we put into the campaign from now on, may prove decisive.

the 1.3 is in SOME national polls that include rightwing ones that have been repudiated

I'm confused. I didn't know PPP was about to release another Ohio poll. Has the race shifted that much since their last poll?

left to fall!

and though they say he can win elsewhere, that would mean he would win Ohio if he swept.
It ain't happning.

in my mind. I trust Obama completely and I think they have a game plan to win as big as possible. But yeah OH+NV = done. This just shows the power of narrative - people just refuse to see how difficult it is for Romney to win. Dems say they are reality-based but still just accept whatever they're told and then decide to cry or...shout (with hesitation and lots of cautionary remarks). So easy to sucker into doom and gloom and worry. Arithmetic. Romney is not going to win Ohio. Not going to happen. And it doesn't matter if Obama is 5pts ahead there or .5pt ahead (onoz, they will steal!!!!) a win is a win and that is too much ground for Romney to make up in a state that hates his guts, even when the rest of the country saw a bounce.

He also has to pull out Virginia or he is hosed.

the debate tomorrow will likely be decisive.

if the 10/3 Obama shows up and gives a repeat performance, Romney will likely win in 3 weeks.

If Obama recovers and wins or even has a draw, then he's in good shape.

But he can't afford another loss.

If Obama lays as egg, he is done, as are the rest of us. If he wins or fights his way to a tie, we win. I do think Romney will fade in the end, he has a tendency to do that. People just do not like him. There is something about him that irritates people. The odds of him blowing it at the town hall are good, especially if someone asks him a nasty question. I hope Candy does not get to pick the questions they pose to him.