I didn't know either.

It seems there is still some erosion in support for Obama in the swing states.

That's why it's too soon to declare Romney's bounce over.

Obama needs to knock it out of the park tomorrow night so we can get back the momentum, particularly with women voters!

And the M$M would declare it "even".

Town hall debates is one of Obama's best - because he connects, and Rmoney will be nothing but disconnect and full of derision.

...I think it's premature to assume Romney will be bad. The guy's a trained salesman, and knows how to smooth-talk an audience, as long as it's simply delivering pre-scripted answers to political "frequently-asked questions." Where he gets in trouble ("corporations are people, my friend&quot is dealing with follow-up -- but I don't think there's any of that in this debate.

Do you know what the date range for PPP poll is?

Same for the women voter remark, what is this based on?

It's our only hope!

They're either wrong at the state level or wrong at the national level. Take your pick. They say Obama's numbers are the most pessimistic we've seen to date ... that means it's got to be a bigger deficit than 3 or 4 points, which Romney has led in some polls post-debate. If that's the case, Obama is not winning the electoral college. Let's assume the PPP numbers put him at six-points behind (reasonable) ... a deficit like that will bleed over into every swing state and most likely lose him Ohio, Colorado, Iowa and other swing states.

I'm not saying this will happen, of course, just pointing out that it's almost mathematically impossible for Obama to lead by five in Ohio and trail by six or so nationally. Even Kerry, who was within two-points of Bush in Ohio still only lost the popular vote by 2.6%. If he had lost the popular vote by a wider margin, Ohio would've shifted and had he won the popular vote by six-points, he would've won Ohio by a sizable margin.

Ultimately, my point is that for PPP to reconcile this poll, they've got to dismiss their state polls that show Obama up five in Ohio. It's just impossible for Obama to lose the popular vote by 4-6 points and win Ohio by five. It just isn't going to happen. So, which poll is wrong?

... that means it's got to be a bigger deficit than 3 or 4 points, which Romney has led in some polls post-debate.

Whether it's 3 or 4 points ... Obama is not winning Ohio by five and losing the popular vote by 4. So, they're either throwing their state polls under the bus or they're admitting right out of the gate this national poll shouldn't be taken seriously.

I go back to 2004. Yes, had Kerry won Ohio, he would've not had enough to win the popular vote. However, his deficit in the popular vote was only 2.4 points and his deficit in Ohio was only two-points. That margin is razor thin and Bush wouldn't have won Ohio if Kerry won the popular vote by 4 points.

It's all relative.

I don't think he said "to date." It seems that he's saying the PPP poll with be the most pessimistic of the week, as compared to other national polls. Who knows, we'll see.

Either the national or state. Obama isn't winning Ohio by five points and losing the popular vote by three or four. If he wins Ohio by five, the worst he would do is pull a Gore/Bush and lose the popular vote by less than a percentage point.

NBC all had OH up what 3-6pts? Even wack ass Ras was +1. So I bet on their national being out of whack.

He gets OH and NV and he's home free (WI ain't goin' nowhere).

...if you take into account timing and methodology.

Kos has already explained how the national poll works: it runs Thursday through Sunday, with them calling from a list of random numbers until they get at least 1,000 likely voters. If they call a number and no one answers, they call it again every day of the polling cycle until they get an answer and/or have reached their 1,000 quota. What this means is that their national poll is going to be "front-loaded" -- if enough respondents took the call on Thursday to give them 1,000 LVs, the poll would stop right there. More commonly, what it means is that there are a lot of responses on Thursday, a large number on Friday, a smaller number on Saturday, and only the last stragglers on Sunday (according to last week's poll, 85% of responses came from Thursday or Friday).

The state poll was apparently a two-day affair (Friday-Saturday). I don't know their methodology in this poll, but it doesn't appear to have been front-loaded. I base this on their tweet from Friday night, saying that the result was almost even, and a later tweet on Saturday saying their results were much more favorable to Obama the second day. Since the end result was O+5, it would appear impossible for the poll to be front-loaded with a solid Romney day on Friday, or the overall result would have been far closer to a tie.

So, putting those together, there's reason to believe that a lot of their national poll was taken on Thursday (mostly before the VP debate) and Friday (which, if results mirrored their Ohio poll, was a good day for Romney), and much less later on. Since we saw, after the first debate, that the polls took a day or so to reflect a Romney bounce (his big gains came primarily in results reported on the Saturday morning after that debate), it's not impossible that a Biden counter-bounce might not have shown up in strength this week until Saturday polling. If you went from a good Romney day on Thursday, a dead-heat on Friday, a good Obama day on Saturday (and ??? on Sunday), it's quite possible to see a scenario where the national poll was front-loaded with Thursday votes, with poll responses tailing down through the weekend, just as Obama's strength was beginning to assert itself, while a non-front-loaded state poll that didn't interview on Thursday would catch a lot more Saturday, pro-Obama results driven by a "Biden bounce."

I would only observe that this scenario might make sense if tomorrow's result is only R+3. An R+4 or more result would be much harder to reconcile with either state or other national polls, and would look increasingly like a true outlier, something that I don't think can be said about PPP's Ohio poll, which, while it may be a little more optimistic than some others taken of the state at the same time, is still pretty much in line with the rest of them.

They've got a new draught out.

That said, let us not forget that Kerry did not lose Ohio, or did he lose the popular vote. Ohio was stolen and about 3 million Democratic votes "went missing" in one form of another.

The great danger is that the election will be close enough in a swing state to be stolen again.

As long as Obama is up 5 points - 4 may be good enough now, since folk are alerted - it becomes difficult to steal the state. Less than that, and funny numbers can be overlooked by the media, for a price. (Remember how shocked one anchor was when Gingrich said Romney is a liar?)

that: (1) the national polls have been bad; but (2) the state polls have not been as bad.

Simple as that.

They're not included in any daily averages for a reason.

...and give them extra emphasis, because PPP is normally a Democratic-leaning poll.

Reading the tea-leaves, Kos's "by far" is in relation to a chart of current poll results posted just above the comment in the article. That chart's most-favorable Romney numbers were from Rasmussen, with R+1. I would assume the "by far" means the results will be R+3 or R+4, and hopefully not R+5 or higher. Either way, look for the corporate media to give it heavy play tomorrow, to emphasize the narrative that the President is going to need a "knockout blow" in tomorrow night's debate, or else his campaign is finished.

I think PPP is going to prove one of its polls wrong. They say Obama is up 5 in Ohio ... if that's the case, he isn't trailing by more than two points nationally. It is almost impossible for Obama to win Ohio by five and lose the popular vote ... let alone by a margin like that. So, either Obama is losing Ohio, and that poll is wrong, or their national number is wrong. Take your pick. PPP is losing credibility with shit like this.

Even Rasmussen has Obama ahead by one. Obama has an advantage in Ohio.

National polls will fluctuate with who you poll. PPP is a good poller but even they have crap polls now and then (I never bought the Claire McCaskill down by 10 poll either).

Simply average the PPP national poll to the others and it is still a close race for the popular vote. Reuters has Obama ahead, Wash Post has him ahead, IBC/Tipp has him tied. I wouldn't let it bother me. It is probably Obama down by 3 or 4 which is out of line with the other polls right now and therefore an outlier.

PPP is better at state level polling. It is a robo poller too.

They were one of the best state-by-state pollsters in 2008 and during the primaries. CNN and NBC both found Obama up in the 5-point range in Ohio, and, please correct me if I'm wrong, PPP has never been known too well for accurate national polling. They usually lie toward the outer edges of the polling spectrum, either painting a rosy picture for Obama or for Romney.

Expect to see Romney up 2-3 in their national poll tomorrow.

It is not like ABC/Wash Post that has been doing this for years and years. Plus, I barely heard of this poll. It is like Research 2000. It is done for Daily Kos. That poll only got recognition when it turned out to be fake polling. It is like saying Newsmak's poll with Zogby is more important then any of the daily trackers and well known national polls.

The only people who "don't take PPP seriously" do so because they think they lean too far left (or manufacture polls to drive a position).

They're not included in any daily averages for a reason.

Um... because they haven't run one for awhile?

For the record - like them or not - they have been one of the most accurate pollsters out there since their inception.

Tens of millions will watch the rematch.

I think he is a lock in OH, NV, IA. Now he's going to begin sweeping the board. Sorry but I refuse to underestimate the guy.

LOL scratch that - he just needs OH and NV. I ain't worried.

Polls this year are like old jokes about the weather: don't like it? Wait five minutes and it will change.

Seems like a constant flow of polls, some with Obama up, some Romney, but at this point, I'm starting to glaze over...and I'm a poll freak. What's it like for the average American?

...has given us a "pre-emptive" warning of upcoming negative PPP numbers as soon as he got them, ahead of their official release time of Tuesday morning. I assume you're not claiming Kos is a Republican troll???

i firmly believe his ego got in his way in the first debate

he has a true disdain for Romney and felt he was above him

nm

For all the reasons Debate #1 was <insert adjective> this has got to be the lamest of the lame.

Your post was too stupid to report as disruptive.

You are too dumb to shit.

LOL.

ugh

Elections go up, they go down. Right now, the tide is rising.

My friend. And I mean that most sincerely.

or the sucky PPP national poll out tomorrow. I like PPP for their state polls, I'm not yet convinced that they are good nationally. I guess the election will tell. BTW, any poll that doesn't include cell phones isn't as credible as it should be.

That will be our saving grace this year! Romney can't gain any traction there.

...as Princeton Elections Consortium has pointed out, Romney can still win without Ohio if he picks up both Nevada and Wisconsin.

At this point, the polling would suggest Obama ahead in both, but within the margin of error. More to the point, if PPP's national poll is on-target (and, it would follow, practically everyone else is wrong), and there unaccountably turns out to be a Romney lead of 4 or 5, then a number of other states that seem to be "lean Democratic" would suddenly be unsafe. With that much of a national lead, it wouldn't surprise me to see not only Wisconsin, but states like Iowa and Pennsylvania slip to the Republicans. But that assumes, as I said before, that PPP is right and every other poll (and, most especially, ABC/WaPo, which has scarcely been Democratic-friendly this cycle) is wrong...including the Gallup and Rasmussen trackers, which show much smaller Romney LV leads (and, in Gallup's case, puts Obama ahead among RVs).

the scenario as it currently stands into something else.

Personally, I'd rather be prepared than have the news come as a complete shock, like the Pew poll after the first debate.

Is the Obama campaign running ads countering R's ghastly ads concering the deficit in midwest swing states?

Such as the ad that features a woman and an infant, warning her that the deficit will harm her child and future generations?

It's total b.s., of course. As Krugman has explained ad nauseum, the deficit is really a non-issue.

But, gullible folks apparently do not realize this. So, the campaign needs to address this issue and allay fears.

And while they're at it, explain to voters that Romney has no right to even mention deficits, since he left Mass. with a large one, due to his profligate spending.

And, he of course will either drastically increase the dedficit with his intent to cut taxes for the wealthy and increase military spending, or he will drastically slash medicaid, medicare, social security, and all middle class tax deductions, Pell grants, etc.

They built it, they want to increase it with uncosted tax cuts and military spending.

But they have also turned it into a campaign issue and are running
ads with it, trying to shift blame to Dems. They are trying to make it into a huge campaign issue.

My question is to anyone with info on the Obama campaign and its ads in swing states.

....and it wasn't?

Last reading was 47 to 49.

How many of us couldn't sleep last Friday night when PPP teased that their Ohio numbers looked really tight?
I take Kos's manipulative little teaser as nothing more than an attempt to drive traffic to his site. Silver does the same thing. Today's tweet and statement in kos's post is just vague enough to give people the vapors but nothing concrete to hang on to. Personally, I think it can be interpreted thus: The national kos/ppp poll will be depressing in comparison to state ppp polls and anything coming out after tomorrow's debate. Seriously, guys. The way we're carrying on, I would actually be comfortable betting that at least 25% of us will have a coronary before November 6th.

How about a facebook update teasing a tweet teasing a blog entry suggesting that an ongoing poll is interesting.



Some people here done lost they shit.

I'm not going to stain my underwear over a robocaller even if they have a (D) after their poll...

He's fired up his conservative base in the south, mountain west, and heartland, that's why the national numbers are moving in his direction nationally. He's not gaining anything among swing-state moderates.

PPP hasn't spoken about tomorrow, from what I can tell? I think the KOS post is referring to the past PPP numbers?

The articile seems to be referring to polling that has already occurred - not forward looking.

Who even knows when this poll was taken and what it measured. Even the best polls have bad days.