2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum538 has a 2.6% chance
that Obama carries at least one state that he did not in 2008.
So which would it be? AZ? or GA?
I guess the next most likely candidate is TX.
Maybe I am overlooking WV. Maybe MO.
I dunno.
Suppose you had unlimited money and a real cushion, where would you suggest expanding the map?
graham4anything
(11,464 posts)TBF
(32,062 posts)LisaL
(44,973 posts)Raster
(20,998 posts)Raster
(20,998 posts)...sick to fucking death of the Teabillies and what they've done to my home state.
DonViejo
(60,536 posts)TroyD
(4,551 posts)They wrote an article about it last week.
Raster
(20,998 posts)It is a crime, and I do mean crime, the way the Maricopa Teabillies and their dipshit posse have disrespected the Arizona Latino population. Arizona has a WONDERFUL, RICH LATINO HERITAGE. They were there long before the miscreants that have streamed in from beyond.
It's time to take Arizona BLUE and kick the racist, bigoted horse's ass TO THE CURB!
onehandle
(51,122 posts)Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)stopbush
(24,396 posts)Better to spend that money on GOTV in a state with lots of electoral votes.
GallopingGhost
(2,404 posts)gopiscrap
(23,761 posts)Vogon_Glory
(9,118 posts)I think it's likely that President Obama will carry Arizona. The bigots and the politicians that cater to them have treated Arizona Latinos badly enough that they got angry enough that they're likely to turn out in larger numbers than they ever did before.
Kicking Latinos around is an old habit of right-wingers and using the right-wing dog-whistle "illegal" to describe anyone of Latino descent who lives in the US was a very useful political tool for right-wing politicians on the make for many years.
There comes a problem, though. Demography. When the numbers of Hispanics rises above a certain percentage AND those Latinos feel angry enough to strike back, a lot of those bigots are likely to find themselves being thrown out of office.
This has already happened in California, and Russell Pearce's defeat, although clearly not a victory for Arizona liberals, seems to have given Arizona Hispanics the hope that change is possible. And since they're neither as apathetic or as complacent as their Texas counterparts, I daresay some Arizona pols are in for an unpleasant (but well-deserved) surprise by Wednesday, November 7th.
Ebadlun
(336 posts)This probably isn't relevant this cycle, but it seems to be the case in Iowa that jobs related to wind farms have made it harder for the GOP to peddle their anti-environment schtick. Now if wind becomes a truly huge industry in Texas, might this, in addition to the Latino vote, hasten the tip?
tarheelsunc
(2,117 posts)It was within 10 points in 2008 and that included the McCain factor. If the Hispanic vote this time around is at a high level, Obama has a good chance. The Republican party is digging their own grave there with their extremist immigration policies.
LisaL
(44,973 posts)davidpdx
(22,000 posts)Judging form the 538 and Huffington Post, I don't see one that could flip (I know a recent poll in Arizona was close, but I don't buy it). We need to make sure Florida and Ohio don't flip. Ohio looks good now, but Florida is close. I strongly believe we'll lose Indiana and North Carolina which is 24 EVs. There is no unlimited budget because we need to be putting resources into the states we need to keep.