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abumbyanyothername

(2,711 posts)
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 07:41 PM Oct 2012

538 has a 2.6% chance

that Obama carries at least one state that he did not in 2008.

So which would it be? AZ? or GA?

I guess the next most likely candidate is TX.

Maybe I am overlooking WV. Maybe MO.

I dunno.

Suppose you had unlimited money and a real cushion, where would you suggest expanding the map?

19 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
538 has a 2.6% chance (Original Post) abumbyanyothername Oct 2012 OP
Texas, even though most here think I am nuts graham4anything Oct 2012 #1
TX is getting closer - AZ will be first. nt TBF Oct 2012 #10
When the hell freezes over and pigs fly. LisaL Oct 2012 #15
I think AZ. The Latino vote is heavily undervalued. And they LOVE our President. Raster Oct 2012 #2
+1 hrmjustin Oct 2012 #4
And I might add there are a shitload of decent, rational Arizonans that are... Raster Oct 2012 #7
I agree, target AZ; for the very reasons you wrote about , Raster. DonViejo Oct 2012 #9
Latino Decisions says it could be AZ TroyD Oct 2012 #3
And I sincerely hope the Latino vote can turn Arizona BLUE! Raster Oct 2012 #11
Not Georgia. nt onehandle Oct 2012 #5
AZ and MO. Dawson Leery Oct 2012 #6
A 2.6% chance isn't worth spending any money on. stopbush Oct 2012 #8
Arizona. n/t GallopingGhost Oct 2012 #12
Arizona and also have him campaign with and for Carmona gopiscrap Oct 2012 #13
Arizona Vogon_Glory Oct 2012 #14
Wind power? Ebadlun Oct 2012 #16
I believe President Obama has a stronger chance in Arizona now than in NC. tarheelsunc Oct 2012 #17
I pick AZ. LisaL Oct 2012 #18
I know this is going to sound pestimistic, but none davidpdx Oct 2012 #19

Raster

(20,998 posts)
7. And I might add there are a shitload of decent, rational Arizonans that are...
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 07:45 PM
Oct 2012

...sick to fucking death of the Teabillies and what they've done to my home state.

Raster

(20,998 posts)
11. And I sincerely hope the Latino vote can turn Arizona BLUE!
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 08:01 PM
Oct 2012

It is a crime, and I do mean crime, the way the Maricopa Teabillies and their dipshit posse have disrespected the Arizona Latino population. Arizona has a WONDERFUL, RICH LATINO HERITAGE. They were there long before the miscreants that have streamed in from beyond.

It's time to take Arizona BLUE and kick the racist, bigoted horse's ass TO THE CURB!

stopbush

(24,396 posts)
8. A 2.6% chance isn't worth spending any money on.
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 07:53 PM
Oct 2012

Better to spend that money on GOTV in a state with lots of electoral votes.

Vogon_Glory

(9,118 posts)
14. Arizona
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:02 PM
Oct 2012

I think it's likely that President Obama will carry Arizona. The bigots and the politicians that cater to them have treated Arizona Latinos badly enough that they got angry enough that they're likely to turn out in larger numbers than they ever did before.

Kicking Latinos around is an old habit of right-wingers and using the right-wing dog-whistle "illegal" to describe anyone of Latino descent who lives in the US was a very useful political tool for right-wing politicians on the make for many years.

There comes a problem, though. Demography. When the numbers of Hispanics rises above a certain percentage AND those Latinos feel angry enough to strike back, a lot of those bigots are likely to find themselves being thrown out of office.

This has already happened in California, and Russell Pearce's defeat, although clearly not a victory for Arizona liberals, seems to have given Arizona Hispanics the hope that change is possible. And since they're neither as apathetic or as complacent as their Texas counterparts, I daresay some Arizona pols are in for an unpleasant (but well-deserved) surprise by Wednesday, November 7th.

Ebadlun

(336 posts)
16. Wind power?
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:06 PM
Oct 2012

This probably isn't relevant this cycle, but it seems to be the case in Iowa that jobs related to wind farms have made it harder for the GOP to peddle their anti-environment schtick. Now if wind becomes a truly huge industry in Texas, might this, in addition to the Latino vote, hasten the tip?

tarheelsunc

(2,117 posts)
17. I believe President Obama has a stronger chance in Arizona now than in NC.
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 11:10 PM
Oct 2012

It was within 10 points in 2008 and that included the McCain factor. If the Hispanic vote this time around is at a high level, Obama has a good chance. The Republican party is digging their own grave there with their extremist immigration policies.

davidpdx

(22,000 posts)
19. I know this is going to sound pestimistic, but none
Tue Oct 16, 2012, 09:05 AM
Oct 2012

Judging form the 538 and Huffington Post, I don't see one that could flip (I know a recent poll in Arizona was close, but I don't buy it). We need to make sure Florida and Ohio don't flip. Ohio looks good now, but Florida is close. I strongly believe we'll lose Indiana and North Carolina which is 24 EVs. There is no unlimited budget because we need to be putting resources into the states we need to keep.

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