2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHow the were the Michigan polls THAT FREAKING WRONG?
Does this make sense to anyone else?
johnnyrocket
(1,773 posts)H was +18 on B.
This is the biggest polling upset *EVER*
anotherproletariat
(1,446 posts)showed it being this tight. Luckily the delegates are given proportionally. So Bernie will get bragging rights, but overall the Hillary delegate count will go up tonight compared to his.
Lorien
(31,935 posts)and they want to manipulate perceptions to kill Bernie's momentum.
TheCowsCameHome
(40,168 posts)This was gonna be a cakewalk.
Roland99
(53,342 posts)demmiblue
(36,850 posts)Roland99
(53,342 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)In 2008, MI and FL moved their primaries to earlier than the DNC allows. That caused the DNC to strip both states of their delegates. The DNC requested that the candidates remove their names from the ballots in those states.
Obama did. Clinton didn't quite manage to get around to it.
So yes, Clinton won....as the only one on the ballot.
(MI and FL got half their delegates back in a late-in-the-primary deal, when their delegates were not enough to swing the election)
demmiblue
(36,850 posts)Just an FYI.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Kucinich, Dodd and Gravel each didn't break 10%.
karynnj
(59,503 posts)compete. John Edwards announced he would comply with that and not file to be on the ballot - Obama followed suit. Only HRC was on the ballot.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)Silver remarked that it would be the biggest poll miss in modern primary history.... Or close to it. We'll have to see how it shakes out.
Right now the results are looking much closer to Silver's demographic model than the polls.
WillyT
(72,631 posts)dinkytron
(568 posts)DemRace
(28 posts)Juicy_Bellows
(2,427 posts)That's my take anyway.
Oilwellian
(12,647 posts)Over-polling of Democrats and under-polling the independents. He won their vote quite handsomely. Also, the youth vote isn't being counted in these polls and they vote overwhelmingly for Bernie. I'm so glad they can now see that the polls are bogus without their being counted, and to get out there and vote!
longship
(40,416 posts)And my cell phone often did not work well at home. Now it does okay, but I never get called by pollsters when my land line in CA would be called regularly.
I think that is the explanation of why polls stopped working. They are no longer polling the public.
marions ghost
(19,841 posts)--that sounds like it could have something to do with this all right.
Oilwellian
(12,647 posts)you also have to have a good sampling of the Independents. Bernie won their vote handsomely and I think that was underestimated as well.
marions ghost
(19,841 posts)demmiblue
(36,850 posts)Only a few counties have been fully counted.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Instead, it's going to be single-digits no matter which candidate wins.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)The alchemy in polling is coming up with a model of who will actually show up at the polls. That involves a significant amount of guesswork.
Apparently, the likely voter model being used in MI was very wrong.
Open primary states are more difficult. The polls have been missing younger voters, too.
jillan
(39,451 posts)Response to Ken Burch (Original post)
Lizzie Poppet This message was self-deleted by its author.
yardwork
(61,607 posts)Maybe the model didn't take independents into account?
JimDandy
(7,318 posts)Matariki
(18,775 posts)jwirr
(39,215 posts)the millennials.
Recursion
(56,582 posts)I'd assume that means everybody's turnout model was fundamentally broken; I have trouble believing a break this big happened from the debate.
Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)Hillary Clinton 51.9%
Bernie Sanders 46.9%
Among likely Dem voters
CincyDem
(6,357 posts)I thought I saw somewhere that she was on CNN (or MSNBC) implying that this would be much closer than the top line poll numbers. Speculation was that the campaign knew something in the internals that had them worried so they were out pre-working the media message, trying to lower expectations.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)I still have no idea where they got the poll that had it as 66%HRC-29%Bernie.
Oilwellian
(12,647 posts)Garbage In, Garbage Out.
I think Nate's claim to fame at 538 is aggregating polls data and doing analysis across all the polls. As I recall, other than analyzing the questions, he doesn't have anything to do with how the polls are being run.
I'm not ready to throw him under the bus. lol. I'd much rather have him calling the numbers than Rove and his merry band of election robbers.
FourScore
(9,704 posts)He said he wanted to bring all democrats to the polls. If that swould happen, he would win. Michigan had the biggest primary turnout in decades.
It's the beginning of the revolution!!!!!!!
ScreamingMeemie
(68,918 posts)There were a lot of us.
brooklynite
(94,541 posts)It happens.