2016 Postmortem

Yavin4

(35,438 posts) Tue Mar 8, 2016, 11:57 PM Mar 2016

The Pre-Michigan Polls were right. Those polls were of likely Dem voters.

From 538:

One result that has stayed consistent on the Democratic side is that self-identified independents are far more likely to vote for Sanders. The current exit poll estimate is that he is winning them in Michigan by a 70 percent to 28 percent margin. Clinton, on the other hand, leads among self-identified Democrats by 57 percent to 41 percent.

Although party registration doesn’t necessarily match identification, it gives you an idea that Sanders really benefits from open primaries.

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The Pre-Michigan Polls were right. Those polls were of likely Dem voters. (Original Post) Yavin4 Mar 2016 OP

Good. Independents are the swing voters democrattotheend Mar 2016 #1

I have a friend who is more Libertarian. PyaarRevolution Mar 2016 #6

Which is what people have been saying all along ibegurpard Mar 2016 #2

Failure in thought. Kittycat Mar 2016 #3

Hillary only wins Democratic Party loyalists. We need to win swing voters Cheese Sandwich Mar 2016 #4

Likely Voters doesn't include first time voters EmperorHasNoClothes Mar 2016 #5

I know independents on both sides marlakay Mar 2016 #7

democrattotheend

(11,605 posts)

1. Good. Independents are the swing voters

Reply to Yavin4 (Original post)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:00 AM

Mar 2016

And from anecdotal evidence, I know two libertarians whom one would expect to be the most opposed to Sanders based on his proposals to expand government and raise taxes. But one of the two said he would vote for Sanders, but not Clinton, over Trump, and the other is committed to voting Libertarian, as he always does, but says Sanders is more tolerable to him than Clinton or Trump. Obviously anecdotal, but I think Sanders is more appealing to at least some swing voters.

PyaarRevolution

(814 posts)

6. I have a friend who is more Libertarian.

Reply to democrattotheend (Reply #1)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:26 AM

Mar 2016

Who actually agrees with the tuition free college. She mentions that even a study by the Rand Corporation finds it's a net gain. That speaks volumes on what a benefit tuition free college can be.

ibegurpard

(16,685 posts)

2. Which is what people have been saying all along

Reply to Yavin4 (Original post)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:01 AM

Mar 2016

Hillary can only win hardcore Democrats. We advance her to the GE at our peril.

Kittycat

(10,493 posts)

3. Failure in thought.

Reply to Yavin4 (Original post)

Wed Mar 9, 2016, 12:03 AM

Mar 2016

People think these are people in the middle. I contend that they are one of four groups.

1. Middle
2. I didn't leave my party, my party left me
3. Independents that support (or caucus with, if it makes sense) Dems, greens, indies.
4. Batshit tea party people