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Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:03 AM Mar 2016

Hillary's a regional candidate who appeals to the Evangelical South. Sanders wins everywhere else!

Hillary is winning in the Evangelical South states. These 13 states compose one of the most anti-Progressive regions in the US (the Evangelical South is the region that is least supportive of reproductive health liberties, collective bargaining rights, GLBT equality, etc.). Hillary has so far put together a clean sweep of these states because the Clintons rose to power in the Evangelical South, which is ideologically inclined against the Progressive message of Sanders.

BUT SANDERS HAS WON 9 OUT OF 12 STATES IN THE REST OF AMERICA!

Even if Hillary is preferred in the 13 Evangelical South states, Hillary is weaker than dishwater outside of the Evangelical South. What evidence is there that Hillary has the sort of appeal beyond the Evangelical South that gives her any hope of winning a general election?

This is a problem we need to discuss before we consider her as a nominee.

Look at the data behind Sanders' 9 generally big wins versus Clinton's 3 narrow wins outside the Evangelical South:

Iowa - Clinton won by 0.3% in a dirty, close race (closest in Iowa's history)

New Hampshire - Sanders won by a wide 22.4% margin

Nevada - Clinton won by 5.3% in a narrower win than her win over Obama in 2008

Colorado - Sanders won by a wide 18.5% margin

Massachusetts - Clinton won dirty by a very narrow 1.4% margin

Minnesota - Sanders won by a wide 23.2% margin

Oklahoma - Sanders won by a wide 10.4% margin

Vermont - Sanders won by a wide 72.5% margin

Kansas - Sanders won by a wide 35.4% margin

Nebraska - Sanders won by a wide 14.2% margin

Maine - Sanders won by a wide 28.8% margin

Michigan - Sanders won by a narrow 2% margin

In a year when the Republican race is setting turnout records, all of Hillary's wins have come in states where Democratic turnout is way down.

In contrast, Sanders has won setting turnout records in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska (which had a huge turnout despite switching from a primary in 2008 to a caucus in 2016), Maine, and Michigan.

How many states does Hillary have to lose outside of the Evangelical South and how many races she can win with anemic turnout before we can have an adult discussion about the implications of these results for her electability prospects?
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Hillary's a regional candidate who appeals to the Evangelical South. Sanders wins everywhere else! (Original Post) Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 OP
Didn't Sanders win Democrats abroad too? Vote2016 Mar 2016 #1
Yep. Big time. nt Lorien Mar 2016 #3
Yes, and that made me wonder angstlessk Mar 2016 #5
He's winning the provisional ballot 69.05% to 30.95% but the mail in ballots have not be counted yet Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #13
thanks Vote2016 Mar 2016 #15
March 15 will probably be good for Hillary, then we hope Sanders goes for the win. merrily Mar 2016 #2
Hillary won 21 states in 2008. Sanders will easily pass that total (probably by April or early May) Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #10
Her completely fake "I Love Jesus Just Like You" song and dance doesn't play in Peoria. mhatrw Mar 2016 #4
Preach it brother! RobertEarl Mar 2016 #6
With the exception of the States that she took in dirty "wins", Lorien Mar 2016 #7
How would she do in the southern states in a GE? Downwinder Mar 2016 #8
Terrible. HooptieWagon Mar 2016 #9
Arkansas might be close but she'd lose the other 12 Evangelical South states. Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #11
I will be curious to see... TTUBatfan2008 Mar 2016 #21
Hillary loses to Whoever Republican marions ghost Mar 2016 #17
Down south she runs as a Christian identity candidate. Identity politics taken to an extreme. Cheese Sandwich Mar 2016 #12
I suspect this is correct marions ghost Mar 2016 #18
Her 3-part Southern appeal: 1. She talks about God and church a lot in the South; 2. she's Arkansas Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #20
I think we've all suffered enough from politicians marions ghost Mar 2016 #22
Great post thanks. Recd and bookmarked. nt Zorra Mar 2016 #14
kick! Vote2016 Mar 2016 #16
K&R marions ghost Mar 2016 #19
K & R AzDar Mar 2016 #23
kick & rec Vote2016 Mar 2016 #24

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
10. Hillary won 21 states in 2008. Sanders will easily pass that total (probably by April or early May)
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:32 AM
Mar 2016

By April 9, Sanders should be close in delegate count, and if Sanders has the momentum at that time, he should pass her on (or before) June 6.

Lorien

(31,935 posts)
7. With the exception of the States that she took in dirty "wins",
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:17 AM
Mar 2016

Every State HRC has will be taken by a Republican in the general. No HRC supporter has explained how she'll get around that.

TTUBatfan2008

(3,623 posts)
21. I will be curious to see...
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:18 PM
Mar 2016

...how Arkansas goes in the general election if/when Hillary is the nominee. The Clintons have deep ties there of course, but they also have a lot of baggage and that state is generally very conservative. I tend to think it would be a single digit loss.

marions ghost

(19,841 posts)
17. Hillary loses to Whoever Republican
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 09:35 AM
Mar 2016

and especially against Trump. South is big for tRump.

I'm down South.

 

Cheese Sandwich

(9,086 posts)
12. Down south she runs as a Christian identity candidate. Identity politics taken to an extreme.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:35 AM
Mar 2016

There's no substance. It's vote for me because I read the bible every day.

marions ghost

(19,841 posts)
18. I suspect this is correct
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 09:37 AM
Mar 2016

I can't explain her appeal in the South any other way.

"Christian Identity Candidate" -- yep.

Good snow job, Hillary.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
20. Her 3-part Southern appeal: 1. She talks about God and church a lot in the South; 2. she's Arkansas
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:13 PM
Mar 2016

royalty as the former first lady to Bill Clinton; 3. She's not very progressive and that's a good match for the not-very-progressive South.

I'm not one to question other people's religious beliefs so I take Hillary 100% at her word, but I suspect that she professes her sincerely held religious beliefs more during a 30 minute stump speech in Mississippi that she expresses those same beliefs over the course of a year's worth of conversations with her closest confidant, Huma Abedin.

I totally and completely accept that Hillary's beliefs are genuine (more credit than she gave Obama in 2008), but I don't think she wears those beliefs on her sleeve to the same extent when she's not making stump speeches in front of church-going crowds.

I like that Sanders' stump speeches (on the topic of religion or otherwise) are basically the same issues he'd be discussing with you if you got the seat next to him on a long flight and engaged him in a real conversation.

marions ghost

(19,841 posts)
22. I think we've all suffered enough from politicians
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:50 PM
Mar 2016

who work their personal religious affiliations in order to get elected. I don't think Jesus is smiling on Hillary or anyone else doing it.

But she comes from the school of "whatever it takes" so I'm not surprised.

Right, the conservatism of the South is also a factor.

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