If Hillary wins big in those states, it's over.

If she doesn't or loses, then this thing will go the distance.

Maybe it's time you reassess your talking points? You've been yelping that one since April 30. it ain't coming true.

I'm not sure why you'd have a problem with that unless the only information you want to hear is lock-step support of Sanders.

Despite Michigan, it's still the math.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]A 90% chance of rain means the same as a 10% chance:
It might rain and it might not.[/center][/font][hr]

"He won't last to July!"
"He'll drop out by Christmas!"
"Clinton will sweep the early primaries, then he's done!"
"He's out after Super Tuesday!"
"Clinton's going to dominate MI, then he's toast!"
"Just you wait!"

Time and time again, all these predictions of Sanders' immediate political demise have been shown to be bogus. At some point, you've got to realize that it's less "prediction' and more "wishful thinking."

I don't know why anyone would have predicted that Sanders would drop out in 2015, well before Iowa. And given how much his campaign poured into Iowa and New Hampshire (Vermont's neighbor), predicting a Clinton sweep of the early primaries would have been silly.

Now, predicting that Clinton would have a large delegate lead after Super Tuesday and that it would be even larger after March 15 were/are perfectly reasonable predictions. Based on demographic and mathematical realities.

Clearly the Michigan result came as a shock to many, myself included. And if Clinton had won Michigan by a wide margin, it would have spelled disaster for Sanders (as it would indicate he has little chance in OH, MO, IL and PA, states with fairly similar demographics). But you can't lump together mindless, nonsensical predictions with what are reasonable predictions. Yes, sometimes those reasonable predictions end up being way off--such is life. That doesn't mean they always have been or always will be; it just means this isn't a perfect science.

These predictions are based on the notion that Sanders is a nonviable running a vanity campaign, and that Clinton can just step over him for landslide victories. Of course time and again, this assumption is shown to be false. Yet the predictions of immediate doom for the Sanders campaign persist. These predictions run counter to the information actually present.

I've said for months that I think the race will, for all intents and purposes, be over by mid-March. Michigan gives me pause, but I still think Sanders is likely to be in too great of a hole after the March 15 primaries. When you consider that he lost ground yesterday in spite of his monumental upset, you have to acknowledge that the delegate math is not his friend at this point.

If Sanders can pull off a couple of victories on March 15 (Ohio and Missouri, perhaps) and not lose a whole lot of ground that day, then his advantage in the states leading up to New York may force a reconsideration of his chances. For now, though, Michigan isn't enough.

I'm not talking Delegates. Obviously Clinton is ahead there at the moment. My annoyance is with the daily prediction o' doom. Just like... give it a rest, people, he's not going to Hindenburg, no matter how many voodoo dolls they tear up.

But talking about delegate math is reasonable and understandable, because that's what determines the nomination.

Those appear to be big ifs tonight. We'll see how it all plays out. I'm glad people are voting and getting their say. The more democrats voting & making their voices heard the better, imho. It sure is an interesting year.

Although this year is interesting as well.

Proportional allocation makes it a slow grind, but very exciting at the same time. It's tough to get out to a huge lead, but it's also tough to lose your lead.

I'm still fascinated by the Michigan polling. Off the top of my head, I can't recall a bigger discrepancy between the polls and the actual results.

because I was emotionally invested in Obama (and still feel that way). This year I don't feel as invested. I'm anxious about wanting to defeat republicans & win seats in Congress.

Yeah, Michigan polling was way off. I don't answer my phone if I don't recognize the number. I'll google an unknown number and if it's a robocall I block it. I suspect that's at least partly what's happening.

...is that some Obama supporters are very much anti-Clinton. Policy-wise, they're pretty darn similar. It's fair to say a Clinton Administration would be a lot like an Obama Administration.

A Sanders win in Florida or North Carolina seems too unlikely to consider it a bellwether, which is how I referred to Michigan in this thread. Likewise, New York and Maryland seem to favor Clinton too heavily to give them much consideration. Not that upsets in those states couldn't happen, mind you, but other states that are more iffy will be more telling. Ohio, Missouri and Illinois (along with Pennsylvania, which doesn't vote until April 26th) are, demographically-speaking, similar to Michigan. Illinois less so than those other 3. Wins in a few of those states are crucial for Sanders.

Michigan hit the pause button, but if Clinton wins all 5 March 15 primaries, Sanders won't be able to overcome the deficit.

Ohio and Illinois are the tossups because they're open. I think Ohio is the big one to watch. I suspect Hillary will eek out a win in Illinois. For Bernie Chicago is a brick wall that will be damn near impossible to breakthrough.

...are states that now seem to be more in play following the Michigan result. I suspect Clinton will win Illinois fairly comfortably, but Michigan was enough of a shock to give me pause.

The delegate math still favors Clinton in a big way, so Sanders really needs to win at least a couple of the March 15 contests and not get blown out in any of the 5.

like it to be over on the 15th. But Hillary has a problem. After the 15th, she's out of southern states with a large % of blacks. It won't be nearly as easy for her going forward.

25 states remain with black populations less than Michigan. 43% of the delegates determined by votes remain after the 15th. That's a much more level playing field demographically for Bernie.

I think Michigan spoke tonight and said "this isn't over".

Most of the states where Sanders is likely to win by a hefty margin have relatively few delegates (Washington, Wisconsin and Indiana are exceptions), and even in those states Clinton will win a proportion of the delegates. Sanders can't afford to lose badly on March 15 (Clinton winning, say, 60% of that day's delegates would be devastating).

If the Democratic Party had winner-take-all states, Sanders could more easily make up ground by pulling off more upset wins like he did in Michigan. But every primary/caucus is proportional, so Sanders will need multiple upset victories (in addition to winning those states he's expected to win). A delegate deficit of 200+ is more difficult to overcome than some probably realize. Kind of like when a sports team is behind in their division by 5 games with 20 games left--if that first place team (that's had a .600 winning percentage up to this point) goes 10-10 down the stretch, your team has to go 15-5 just to finish in a tie. A 5-game deficit doesn't sound like a lot until you realize what it truly means, mathematically.

We have nearly four times as much left -> 43% of the delegates left including 405 delegate California, Washington, Indiana, Maryland, Wisconsin, etc and each of those states has more delegates than all but four of the states Hillary has won. Hillary is in front and has to be favored but she's built a bunch of that lead on the strength of the southern black vote that heavily favored her and that's about to come to an end.

In the next 8 contests after March 15th, representing 321 delegates, the largest % of black vote they'll face is 6.5% in Wisconsin where Bernie is within 2% (effectively tied). Bernie could run the table on those states - with a bunch around Oklahoma & Kansas like areas.

If the other shoe drops on this email scandal, as many expect by May, and I do expect either Hillary and/or her staff to face charges because the law has clearly been broken, that could put Hillary away. Many were hoping to call for Bernie to withdraw on March 15th. Now I understand why: because that's when the demographic table gets turned.

No way should Bernie fold on March 15th. This is a long way from over.

386 pledged delegates over 9 contests, actually, since the results of the "Democrats abroad" primary (13 pledged delegates) will be released on March 21.

100 of those 386 come from Arizona and Hawaii. I would expect Clinton to do pretty well in those 2 states. I don't think either Wisconsin (86) or Washington (101) will be blowouts.

But let's just say Sanders wins 60% of those 386 pledged delegates, which I wouldn't bank on. Rounding up, that's 232 delegates. Clinton would pick up 154 delegates, giving us a difference of 78 delegates. In a race that could find Sanders down by 350+ heading into those 9 contests. With New York, Maryland and Pennsylvania being the 3 big prizes in April.

I'm not saying Sanders should drop out. Not at all. I'm just saying the math is against him.

As for the supposed "email scandal," I think it's truly much ado about nothing. There's no shoe to drop.

The 15th is a big day because it will deepen the hole he has to crawl out of. He's got the momentum of Michigan that he can hope to turn into reducing Mar 15th damage.

After that, like you say, he can take back something in the 9 contests that follow but that won't get him out of his hole.

The one area we disagree on is the emails. I do not see them going through all this effort and coming up empty handed. Laws were broken. They order Marines to fight to the death to protect this information. A slap on the wrist isn't going to cut it. Even if they try that or Obama pardons her or her staff, the GOP and some of the media will be all over it, telling voters the Obama admin protected her ... which will cost her support. I think she's going to pay a price beyond what she has no matter what. And she'll keep paying right through to the general election. There is no way she gets out of this scandal unscathed.

Whatever talk about Petraeus running for President there was, and on the GOP side, it was considerable, that talk died that day. He's washed up and finished.

Clintons director of the CIA agreed to plead guilty to a similar charge, for having classified information that wasn't marked classified on his home laptop. Bill Clinton pardoned him before the Justice Department prosecuted him. That case struck me as much more similar to Hillary's. And he didn't get away with it. Problem here is I don't think Obama can get away with pardoning Hillary because of the outcry during an election - the people will punish her if he does.

Neither Petraeus or Deutch did time in jail and I sincerely doubt Hillary or her staff would. But she'd get branded a criminal in many political discussions - leaving information exposed that Marines are supposed to give their life to protect. It's not going to go over well.

No matter how they try to resolve it, she is going to pay a price politically because she has told the American people it's all a GOP plot about nothing. When the facts come out, that isn't how it's going to play out in the eye of the public. Her other lies from her first press conference on this are going to get replayed - reminding people of her dishonesty around this. Those lies are not the fault of the GOP. Laws were broken - not the fault of the GOP. National security information was not protected that was Hillary's responsibility to protect - to keep all of us safe - again, not the fault of the GOP. Hillary will be perceived once again as not being honest about the seriousness of the situation to help her campaign while having exposed the safety of Americans.

It will cost her votes. There's no doubt in my mind. There is no way she comes off as a hero in this situation.

And we haven't even considered the stuff about subpoenas of the Clinton Foundation for what was happening with donors & weapons deals there .... That's also a situation she can only lose - there's no win in the cards of public perception for her there.

is hill will say or do anything to win. She is not who she appears to be in the window. I suggest you look to the mirror to see the real image.

But the more Clinton and similar Dems have to shift their rhetoric, the more pressure they'll face to be accountable to their rhetoric. And, slowly but surely, the Democratic Party can be made to shift leftward. That's always been my hope, having never believed Sanders could actually win the nomination. I don't think enough groundwork has been laid for us to move away from neoliberal Dems, but the Sanders campaign may start the movement in that direction. Provided people continue the struggle between elections, at the local level, as opposed to just waiting for the next presidential election cycle.

... he said Bernie has already won by changing the dialogue for the next 50 years at least. 15-,20-, 25-year olds are listening to Bernie. Bernie is doing a tremendous service to our country. But I'm still hoping he wins.

But surprises can happen, particularly in caucuses and open primaries. Still, Sanders's narrow victory in Michigan isn't sufficient to suddenly dismiss all polling data.

to post that kind of poll

They should ask if their phone still has a cord or if they actually went cordless when it was big in the 80's

they would use this poll numbers is insane.

100% of white people hate African Americans.



*poll taken at South Carolina Kind Karing Knights rally.

But I would not call her Heavy or even Fat. We can all be in better shape can't we.