So a bit of an outlier in that regard...

Still, I think Bernie can do better in some closed primary states than has been predicted.

it's that Independents don't like her, but they like Sanders (nor do more than 25% of I's trust her yet many more than not trust him).

There are more Independents than there are members in either party.

I also agree that he can do better now in some closed primaries because a great many more Democrats than many thought only had supported her because they thought her more electable in the GE, a notion that is disappearing as fast as dry ice in a pot of boiling water.

So the issue continues to be the same as it has been: will her support erode quickly enough to make a difference? Because when all is said and done, the number of delegates will determine the primary.

-- Mal

What is her lead among Democrats anyway? I think it is closer than you may realize because of the seldom counted youth vote. Nonetheless, that is the only constituency where she holds anything but a really unfortunate disadvantage.

It appears quite clear that unless she loses the Primary, we lose the White House and it will cost us even more as rather than coattails, she is sporting "coat anchors".

The best thing that can happen is if those Democrats that prefer Sanders' policies yet still for reasons I believe have to do mostly with either disinformation or lack of information (thanks to our MSM and DWS) still think she is electable, if only they would move over to the one candidate that can not only win the General election, but have a positive effect on down ticket races as well, then we may do well as a country!.

Without those that only favor her because they buy the myth that she is the electable one in the General rather than the opposite, I believe she would then be the one with the lesser support within the party, it is far from too late for them to figure it out and save us from what would equate to a "John Birch Society" type of government rule brought on by her coat-anchors that will cost us in both the house and Senate as well as losing us the Presidency.

If you disagree, I doubt I could convince you, but all the evidence is there.

It will be close, but to save our government she must lose the primary or we shall all pay the price.

Out of 12 open primary states, Hillary has won 8 and Bernie has won 4.

Out of 8 closed primary states, Hillary has won 4 (counting the near tie in Iowa) and Bernie has won 4

Massachusetts is apparently "mixed" (neither open nor closed), whatever that means and Hillary squeaked out a win there too.

So I don't think the open/closed primary thing has any real bearing. Hillary supporters like to believe that Bernie only wins when independents have a vote, but that argument doesn't seem to hold any water.

to you.

I bet you didn't know I could sing did you?

Actually I can't let that lie stand because I really can't sing but since no one is home except me I can sing all I want and not worry with anyone laughing at me.

I hope your birthday continues through June!! lol..

upset outcomes in the morning ....reminds me of "Victory."

Recommended.

... if not unhoped-for. A number of pundits are having to adjust the vertical hold on their crystal balls after this one.

And Michigan has fewer "yeahbuts" than other states, where the showing of Mr Sanders has been written off as within expectations, because of the number of old white folks and students; and certainly fewer than where the showing of Mrs Clinton has been similarly attributed to strong support among AA voters. As with Minnesota, Michigan is closer to a "cross-section" of the U.S., and it is perhaps instructive that Mr Sanders has so strongly out-performed expectations in those two states.

I wonder how the Iowa caucus would go if it were held now, instead of first?

-- Mal

thought he could win.

:ROFL:

They take their blinders off, maybe they can have something useful to say again, other than how wrong they were.

If not.. then this is just a small bump in the road to Madam Nominee.

Iowa: virtual tie (Bernie beat polls by +5)
Colorado: Bernie win (+12)
Minnesota: Bernie win (+26!!)
Oklahoma: Bernie win (+11)
Nebraska: Bernie win (No polls)
Michigan: Bernie win (+24)

So, yeah, I think he can repeat in Illinois and Ohio. Oh, and Missouri too.

But I suspect Hillary will do fine in those states as well as in Florida and North Carolina.

It obviously incentivizes his campaign

So please, please keep diminishing his chances ahead. That seems to be the best predictor of a win for him

And by bigger margins than MI hopefully, so he can close the delegate gap.

I really wonder what level of polling has been done at the college/univ level. Rauner has made a point to come hard at breaking down funding, and in IL we just lost a veto override of Rauner's MAP funding bill. ote (thanks to two dems). It's a huge loss to low income students and our states colleges & universities. For many this will mean they won't be able to attend school, unless something changes fast.

http://m.sj-r.com/article/20160302/NEWS/160309906

have stopped registering voters on college campuses. That says a lot. It says they understand quite clearly where so much of his support comes from and they will do their best to shut down that support.

Says a 67 year old Bernie supporter.

I'm sure if Hillary does win the primary, they'll restart their registration drive in earnest.

They're really quite transparent, aren't they?

states in the south where it does us absolutely no good. It is all about electoral votes and most of the south is
irrelevant to the general election. Hillary is being punished for Bill's record that has devastated the auto and steel industry
and another thing is her stand on guns. I am looking for our best chance of beating Trump or Cruz. We have been
fed this bs for all these years that it would be a cakewalk for her but we are dealing with Trump now. When she faces
Trump he will just come right out and talk about Bill's blow job, NAFTA, TPP and Benghazi, he will rip her apart. I don't
think Sanders has much chance either but Trump can't pin any lies on him or any of Bill Clinton's record. Damn I wish we had someone else to chose from. As of now it looks like Trump or heaven help us Cruz will be the next President.

Hillary was on the road and meeting with lobbyists pushing every one of the policies Bill did. They were a team in every way.

she will own it when Trump gets done with her. I have never seen anything like this Trump can say or do anything
gets away with it and people believe him. Just like last night he gets on TV and talks about all the Trump products and
CNBC actually did the research and finds out all of it was a lie, but it doesn't matter to the nut jobs that support him.

She owns it.

When she ran for POTUS in 2008, she cited her 20+ years of experience which included First Lady of AK for 12 years (during which she was also a corporate lawyer for Walmart), FLOTUS for 8 years and US Senator for 7 years.

She is precisely part of the Clinton legacy because of their two-for-one mantra, and her reflected 8 years of experience derived from his administration and policies. She helped found the DLC and she supported: NAFTA, the Telecommunications Bill of 1996, Welfare Reform, and overturning Glass-Steagall. She and Bill kept Alan Greenspan at the Fed, placed the then Mr. Goldman Sucks himself Robert Reuben as head of Treasury and hired as financial advisor that abominable Wall Streeter Larry Summers (who lost $1.8 billion from Harvard's endowment!). Despite the TIME cover, that Clinton Triumvirate destroyed the economy for main street but saved Wall Street and especially Goldman-Sachs, their common bond. And they remain Billary's BFFs.



She could never have carpet bagged her way to the NY Senate seat had she not been FLOTUS. And even if she had chosen to disavow Bill's record, once in the Senate, what did she do... She voted aye for IWR, the Patriot Acts I & II and Bush's Bankruptcy Bill.

She can run, spin and confabulate, but she owns it all including her disastrous tenure at the State Department where she sold weapons to Saudi Arabia (home of bin laden and 15 out of 19 Sept 11th hijackers) and where her love of regime change left Honduras and Libya in shambles.

$Hillary's experience is largely derived from having married Bill; and her judgment when she has wielded power has been awful.

So she's not being punished for Bill's record; she's being punished for her own, and she has earned that punishment!

Something like one percent MORE votes than she'd need to "win" after all...

Not that I distrust a fellow Democrat.

Not that I distrust that particular Democrat.



Full disclosure? I freaking live in Illinois where corruption is a way of life in politics. Of COURSE I distrust politicians!




Laura

PRESIDENT
VOTE FOR 1
(WITH 219 OF 219 PRECINCTS COUNTED)
Hillary Clinton . . . . . . . . 31,284 51.71
Roque Rocky De La Fuente . . 39 .06
Martin J. O'Malley . . . . . . 85 .14
Bernie Sanders. . . . . . . . 28,117 46.48
Uncommitted. . . . . . . . . 946 1.56
WRITE-IN. . . . . . . . . .. 27 .04
Total . . . . . . . . . 60,498
Over Votes . . . . . . . . . 82
Under Votes . . . . . . . . . 43

On Edit: Mlive reporting 100%

Michigan presidential primary

Last updated: March 9, 2016, 11:20 a.m. EST

100% reporting
CANDIDATE PERCENT VOTES
Bernie Sanders 49.82% 595,073
Hillary Clinton 48.28% 576,723
Uncommitted 1.63% 19,434
Martin O'Malley 0.20% 2,337
Rocky De La Fuente 0.07% 863

would like, did the voter say "Trump or Bernie"?

Trump certainly gets his share of the far right crazies, but based on his wins he is definitely getting a large number of more moderate, but disenfranchised, people who might otherwise go to Bernie.

Conspiracy in plain view, or just plain manipulative?

She might be able to squeeze by The Donald, but Cruz would likely beat her! She's turned so many people off, thus leading to a 54% disapproval rating!

Hopefully Bernie voters notice that after Michigan.

it's statistics. kind of the opposite of regression to the mean.

She outperformed expectations all across the south to the effect that it will be extremely difficult for Sanders to catch up to her delegate totals. As he was "outperforming" his polls in Michigan by over 20 points she was doing the same in Mississippi. The effect was that even though he gained valuable momentum and press from his Michigan win without a doubt, she still surpassed her delegate targets for the night. He will need the polls in states going forward to be even more wrong than they were in Michigan to get back in the race.

and the polls have been off by 10% in her favor, then she will tie Sanders, as he only needs 53% - if the polls continue to discount all the 'other than' likely voters with cell phones.

Might want to get out a pencil and rework that math.

The south (and particularly AA voters in the south) is a Hillary's only universally strong area. Many or most states going forward favor Bernie. In other words, if Bernie continues to outperform the polls from here on out, the delegate count will only tighten. How much it will tighten and whether Bernie will overtake Hillary are the biggest questions at this point. Next Tuesday will give us a good indication of that.

But he needs to replicate the 70-30 margins that she had across the south in order to catch up. Where will he do that exactly outside of Vermont?

From here on out for him to win the nomination (superdelegates excluded). He didn't pull off that margin in Michigan but certainly seems to have more momentum now.

Florida... or Illinois... or Ohio just for starters...

Polls?

I'd love to see your math. Bernie needs 53% with approximately 60% of the delegates left. so...

I was wondering if any of these states are inside of Vermont:


New Hampshire - Sanders won by a wide 22.4% margin

Colorado - Sanders won by a wide 18.5% margin

Minnesota - Sanders won by a wide 23.2% margin

Oklahoma - Sanders won by a wide 10.4% margin

Vermont - Sanders won by a wide 72.5% margin

Kansas - Sanders won by a wide 35.4% margin

Nebraska - Sanders won by a wide 14.2% margin

Maine - Sanders won by a wide 28.8% margin

Michigan - Sanders won by a 2% margin

That he hasn't duplicated her margins when he's won so he's falling further behind in delegates.

And will win the presidency!

Anybody following that expected zero delegates