2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumA look at delegates by region.
**First a disclaimer. I am not in any way implying states will follow what the region they're in has already done. Every state is it's own entity. This is just to illustrate what has been done in the primary and what's left to go.
I decided to do a breakdown on delegates by region to see what we've done and what we've got left. The country is divided into 4 regions and a non-state group. To define the regions I went by the census bureau's definition. The 4 regions are Northeast, Midwest, South, and West. The number in parenthesis is total pledged delegates for state. Asterisk before state means they have already voted.
Northeast - *Maine (25), *New Hampshire (24), *Vermont (16), *Massachusetts (91), New Jersey (126), New York (247), Pennsylvania (189), Rhode Island (24), Connecticut (55)
Midwest - Wisconsin (86), *Michigan (130), Illinois (156), Indiana (83), Ohio (143), North Dakota (18), South Dakota (20), *Nebraska (25), *Kansas (33), *Minnesota (77), *Iowa (44), Missouri (71)
South - Delaware (21), Maryland (95), *Virginia (95), West Virginia (29), North Carolina (107), *South Carolina (53), *Georgia (102), Florida (214), Kentucky (55), *Tennessee (67), *Mississippi (36), *Alabama (53), *Oklahoma (38), *Texas (222), *Arkansas (32), *Louisiana (51)
West - Idaho (23), Montana (21), Wyoming (14), *Nevada (35), Utah (33), *Colorado (66), Arizona (75), New Mexico (34), Alaska (16), Washington (101), Oregon (61), California (475), Hawaii (25)
Non-States - *American Samoa (6), Democrats Abroad (13), North Marianas (6), Guam (7), Virgin Islands (7), Puerto Rico (60), District of Columbia (20).
*Technically DC is considered part of the south region by the census bureau, but I included it in the non-states as it's not actually a state. That shifts 20 delegates away from the south region to non-states.
Pledged Delegates
There are 4051 pledged delegates. 1,315 have already been pledged (32.5% of total). 766 have gone to Hillary. 549 have gone to Bernie. There are 2,736 pledged delegates to go (67.5% of total). A candidate has to gain a total of 2383 delegates (pledged and un-pledged) to clinch the nomination.
Hillary needs 1,617 (59.1%) of the remaining 2,736 pledged delegates to clinch without super delegates. She needs 1,260 (46% of remaining) more delegates to end with the most pledged delegates.
Bernie needs 1,834 (67%) of the remaining 2,736 pledged delegates to clinch without super delegates. He needs 1,477 (54% of remaining) more delegates to end with the most pledged delegates.
Breakdown by region
Northeast - The northeast has a total of 797 delegates to pledge. It has already pledged 156 (19.5%). Which means it has 641 (80.4%) left to pledge. All remaining states are closed or semi-closed primaries. Of the 156 pledged delegates, Hillary has gained 64 and Bernie has gained 92 which gives Bernie a difference of +28 delegates.
Midwest - The midwest has a total of 886 delegates to pledge. It has already pledged 309 (34.9%). Which means it has 577 (64.1%) left to pledge. All remaining states are open or semi-open primaries. Of the 309 pledged delegates, Hillary has gained 137 and Bernie has gained 174 which gives Bernie a difference of +39 delegates.
South - The south has a total of 1270 delegates to pledge. It has already pledged 749 (59.0%). Which means it has 521 (41.0%) left to pledge. All remaining states are closed or semi-closed primaries. Of the 749 pledged delegates, Hillary has gained 518 and Bernie has gained 231 which gives Hillary a difference of +287 delegates.
West - The west has a total of 979 delegates to pledge. It has already pledged 101 (10.3%). Which means it has 878 (89.7%) left to pledge. The remaining states are a mixture of open and closed primaries and caucuses. Of the 101 pledged delegates, Hillary has gained 48 and Bernie has gained 53 which gives Bernie a difference of +5 delegates.
Non-States - The non-states have a total of 119 delegates to pledge. It has already pledged 6 (5.0%). Which means it has 113 (95.0%) left to pledge. The remaining states are closed primaries and caucuses, except Puerto Rico which is open primary. Of the 6 pledged delegates, Hillary has gained 4 and Bernie has gained 2 which gives Hillary a difference of +2 delegates.
South vs non-South - Hillary has done her damage in the south. Giving her a +287 delegate boost. However it only has 521 (19.0%) of the remaining delegates left. The non-south states have been much better for Bernie, He has only picked up +72 delegates outside the south. However these regions account for 2096 (76.2%) of the remaining delegates. The non-states make up the remaining 113 (4.1%) of delegates outstanding. The primary is far from over.
sources:
States by region -census.gov
Delegate totals -wikipedia
Cheese Sandwich
(9,086 posts)We can win!
Gregorian
(23,867 posts)Today I was hoping that Bernie would rack up the democrats abroad. I expect it, for some unknown reason.
Right now is an interesting point in the race. Everything, even external things like Nancy Reagan dying. Just like the universal gears of time being engaged.