2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumCurrent pledged delegate count: Hillary +221
Last edited Sat Mar 12, 2016, 05:28 PM - Edit history (1)
Gotta love when a "good night for Bernie" still results in Hillary winning more delegates and popular vote than Bernie. With Dems allocating delegates evenly, this means Bernie will have to win 55% of all remaining delegates in every state, plus the superdels. Nearly impossible.
Forward 2016!
UPDATED: Hillary won 4 additional delegates overnight in Northern Mariana Islands.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Hillary was able to net 28 out of Mississippi.
So a good night for Bernie is actually a loss.
That's kinda sad.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Reached his delegate target. He needed 67 and Hillary only needed 63 and they both reached their targets. Hillary has overperformed her delegate targets in every state except VT. Bernie only met his target in VT and MI and never exceeded it yet.
TTUBatfan2008
(3,623 posts)...but he's doing a hell of a lot better than HRC or anyone else expected him to. Nothing sad about a guy going from 5% in the polls to actually winning quite a few states.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)And his win in MI actually gave me a sigh of relief knowing that if by some miracle he is our nominee we may still be able to defeat Trump. Although personally I believe would beat Bernie. Americans seem to like xenophobia, big walls, and low taxes. Bernie would be painted as a tax raising amnesty lover.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)We should all be proud of him.
He's a good guy.
I'll second that!
Number23
(24,544 posts)oasis
(49,389 posts)begin campaigning with her. A clean sweep next Tuesday should get her closer to that call from the White House.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)And he's only up by 99 delegates.
Gwhittey
(1,377 posts)Before Woodward and Bernstein publish their articles.
oasis
(49,389 posts)Hot of the press: Debate Recessgate.
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)DemRace
(28 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Will edit. Thanks for noticing.
Fearless
(18,421 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)By
to favor Hillary early on..... I'll wait a while before I get too bet out of shape
Gwhittey
(1,377 posts)But the debate schedule was. The primary schedule was done back a bit to favor a centrist more like Clinton. DWS had nothing to do with this one at least.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)You might be thinking of debate schedule, which all campaigns work on and agree to.
Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)I guess...
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)The poster is saying that 50 separate state party organizations coalesced around Hillary 2 years ago -- in secrecy -- to develop a plan for her to beat an unknown opponent by gaming the primary schedule.
Beacool
(30,250 posts)You must mean the debate schedule, not the primary schedule. Sanders hadn't even announced he was running for president when the primary schedule was made public.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)SCantiGOP
(13,871 posts)In dozens of threads on DU (most with allcaps and a lot of WOW WOW WOWs) I have read about the "Michigan Miracle."
Look at the numbers: Sanders got 67 delegates, for a net gain of 4.
On that same night in Mississippi Clinton had a net gain of 28.
In Texas alone, she had netted an additional 74 delegates.
I hate to use math to diminish groundless optimism, but reality has a way of doing that.
TTUBatfan2008
(3,623 posts)...he did pull a miracle. Every prediction was that he would lose Michigan by double digits at a minimum and 20+ seemed likely. Nate Silver predicted a 22.5% win for Clinton and said she had more than 99% chance overall to win the state.
But it's also true that Sanders got destroyed in Mississippi and the proportional system means that the "win" in Michigan was pretty much a tie (similar to the Iowa win for Hillary). Adds up to a pretty big delegate loss for Sanders on the evening, though it could have been a heck of a lot worse if you look at all those Michigan polls.
DLnyc
(2,479 posts)So we'll see. Objectively, I would say the race for a majority of the pledged delegates is too close to call at this point.
jeepers
(314 posts)I am sure the super delegates will be thrilled with her nine state 450 delegate win in those southern states that we haven't got a chance in hell of getting even 1 electoral vote from. If not, surely those three squeakers in the blue states will make them forget those 9 blue states that other guy soundly beat you in.
Number23
(24,544 posts)Sanders wins tiny, rural, fairly homogenous states or ones with open primaries that allow independents and Republicans to vote.
Hillary wins huge, diverse states whose primaries are closed to only Democrats. She's got a pretty strong winning strategy right now.
brooklynite
(94,598 posts)...except that taking everything isn't enough. Even if it happens (which I still think is unlikely), he has to win by LARGE margins to offset Clinton's existing delegate balance. Winning MI with 49.8% isn't a sign of a significant voter shift.