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JaneyVee

(19,877 posts)
Thu Mar 10, 2016, 07:03 PM Mar 2016

Current pledged delegate count: Hillary +221

Last edited Sat Mar 12, 2016, 05:28 PM - Edit history (1)

Gotta love when a "good night for Bernie" still results in Hillary winning more delegates and popular vote than Bernie. With Dems allocating delegates evenly, this means Bernie will have to win 55% of all remaining delegates in every state, plus the superdels. Nearly impossible.



Forward 2016!

UPDATED: Hillary won 4 additional delegates overnight in Northern Mariana Islands.

32 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Current pledged delegate count: Hillary +221 (Original Post) JaneyVee Mar 2016 OP
Apparently Bernie was able to net 4 delegates out of Michigan, but Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #1
And that's only the 2nd time Bernie... JaneyVee Mar 2016 #2
He won't win... TTUBatfan2008 Mar 2016 #14
I agree. JaneyVee Mar 2016 #19
Bernie has done very well Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #20
+1 rock Mar 2016 #25
Well said. Number23 Mar 2016 #29
Hill needs to wrap this thing up so the President and First Lady can oasis Mar 2016 #3
Trump already pivoted to the GE JaneyVee Mar 2016 #5
No she needs to wrap it up Gwhittey Mar 2016 #10
Are they still around? oasis Mar 2016 #13
Ah math! How I love thee. Lucinda Mar 2016 #4
She could lose the next 15 by close margins and still win. JaneyVee Mar 2016 #6
I don't think your 65% is correct. This online delegate calculator gives some insight. DemRace Mar 2016 #7
Sorry, meant 55%. Tiny buttons on this phone. JaneyVee Mar 2016 #16
54%. He needs to win 54%. Fearless Mar 2016 #8
I edited. JaneyVee Mar 2016 #24
Keeping in mind that the primary schedule was set up Ferd Berfel Mar 2016 #9
Not primary schedule Gwhittey Mar 2016 #12
Uh no it wasnt. It was set up far in advance. JaneyVee Mar 2016 #17
of course they never knew she was running at that time Ferd Berfel Mar 2016 #21
You made the claim. JaneyVee Mar 2016 #26
A ludicrous claim CorkySt.Clair Mar 2016 #31
No, it wasn't. Beacool Mar 2016 #22
I can't wait to see Trump cry. Clinton is going to hand him his ass. nt. NCTraveler Mar 2016 #11
The Michigan MIRACLE SCantiGOP Mar 2016 #15
Both are true... TTUBatfan2008 Mar 2016 #18
Of course, it was also "nearly impossible" that he would win Michigan! DLnyc Mar 2016 #23
hooray for team Hillary jeepers Mar 2016 #27
She should be quite happy with things continuing just as they have been Number23 Mar 2016 #28
Some people here have suggested that MI indicates Sanders will take everything on 3/15... brooklynite Mar 2016 #30
Kick for update. JaneyVee Mar 2016 #32
 

Cali_Democrat

(30,439 posts)
1. Apparently Bernie was able to net 4 delegates out of Michigan, but
Thu Mar 10, 2016, 07:05 PM
Mar 2016

Hillary was able to net 28 out of Mississippi.

So a good night for Bernie is actually a loss.

That's kinda sad.

 

JaneyVee

(19,877 posts)
2. And that's only the 2nd time Bernie...
Thu Mar 10, 2016, 07:09 PM
Mar 2016

Reached his delegate target. He needed 67 and Hillary only needed 63 and they both reached their targets. Hillary has overperformed her delegate targets in every state except VT. Bernie only met his target in VT and MI and never exceeded it yet.

TTUBatfan2008

(3,623 posts)
14. He won't win...
Thu Mar 10, 2016, 07:28 PM
Mar 2016

...but he's doing a hell of a lot better than HRC or anyone else expected him to. Nothing sad about a guy going from 5% in the polls to actually winning quite a few states.

 

JaneyVee

(19,877 posts)
19. I agree.
Thu Mar 10, 2016, 07:38 PM
Mar 2016

And his win in MI actually gave me a sigh of relief knowing that if by some miracle he is our nominee we may still be able to defeat Trump. Although personally I believe would beat Bernie. Americans seem to like xenophobia, big walls, and low taxes. Bernie would be painted as a tax raising amnesty lover.

oasis

(49,389 posts)
3. Hill needs to wrap this thing up so the President and First Lady can
Thu Mar 10, 2016, 07:11 PM
Mar 2016

begin campaigning with her. A clean sweep next Tuesday should get her closer to that call from the White House.

DemRace

(28 posts)
7. I don't think your 65% is correct. This online delegate calculator gives some insight.
Thu Mar 10, 2016, 07:17 PM
Mar 2016
http://DemRace.com I think he needs just under 54% to have a majority of pledged delegates. So Sanders would need to get 8% more delegates than Clinton for the rest of the race.

Ferd Berfel

(3,687 posts)
9. Keeping in mind that the primary schedule was set up
Thu Mar 10, 2016, 07:20 PM
Mar 2016

By


to favor Hillary early on..... I'll wait a while before I get too bet out of shape

 

Gwhittey

(1,377 posts)
12. Not primary schedule
Thu Mar 10, 2016, 07:24 PM
Mar 2016

But the debate schedule was. The primary schedule was done back a bit to favor a centrist more like Clinton. DWS had nothing to do with this one at least.

 

JaneyVee

(19,877 posts)
17. Uh no it wasnt. It was set up far in advance.
Thu Mar 10, 2016, 07:34 PM
Mar 2016

You might be thinking of debate schedule, which all campaigns work on and agree to.

 

CorkySt.Clair

(1,507 posts)
31. A ludicrous claim
Fri Mar 11, 2016, 12:15 AM
Mar 2016

The poster is saying that 50 separate state party organizations coalesced around Hillary 2 years ago -- in secrecy -- to develop a plan for her to beat an unknown opponent by gaming the primary schedule.






Beacool

(30,250 posts)
22. No, it wasn't.
Thu Mar 10, 2016, 07:51 PM
Mar 2016

You must mean the debate schedule, not the primary schedule. Sanders hadn't even announced he was running for president when the primary schedule was made public.

SCantiGOP

(13,871 posts)
15. The Michigan MIRACLE
Thu Mar 10, 2016, 07:30 PM
Mar 2016

In dozens of threads on DU (most with allcaps and a lot of WOW WOW WOWs) I have read about the "Michigan Miracle."

Look at the numbers: Sanders got 67 delegates, for a net gain of 4.
On that same night in Mississippi Clinton had a net gain of 28.
In Texas alone, she had netted an additional 74 delegates.

I hate to use math to diminish groundless optimism, but reality has a way of doing that.

TTUBatfan2008

(3,623 posts)
18. Both are true...
Thu Mar 10, 2016, 07:35 PM
Mar 2016

...he did pull a miracle. Every prediction was that he would lose Michigan by double digits at a minimum and 20+ seemed likely. Nate Silver predicted a 22.5% win for Clinton and said she had more than 99% chance overall to win the state.

But it's also true that Sanders got destroyed in Mississippi and the proportional system means that the "win" in Michigan was pretty much a tie (similar to the Iowa win for Hillary). Adds up to a pretty big delegate loss for Sanders on the evening, though it could have been a heck of a lot worse if you look at all those Michigan polls.

DLnyc

(2,479 posts)
23. Of course, it was also "nearly impossible" that he would win Michigan!
Thu Mar 10, 2016, 07:52 PM
Mar 2016

So we'll see. Objectively, I would say the race for a majority of the pledged delegates is too close to call at this point.

jeepers

(314 posts)
27. hooray for team Hillary
Thu Mar 10, 2016, 10:18 PM
Mar 2016

I am sure the super delegates will be thrilled with her nine state 450 delegate win in those southern states that we haven't got a chance in hell of getting even 1 electoral vote from. If not, surely those three squeakers in the blue states will make them forget those 9 blue states that other guy soundly beat you in.

Number23

(24,544 posts)
28. She should be quite happy with things continuing just as they have been
Thu Mar 10, 2016, 10:46 PM
Mar 2016

Sanders wins tiny, rural, fairly homogenous states or ones with open primaries that allow independents and Republicans to vote.

Hillary wins huge, diverse states whose primaries are closed to only Democrats. She's got a pretty strong winning strategy right now.

brooklynite

(94,598 posts)
30. Some people here have suggested that MI indicates Sanders will take everything on 3/15...
Thu Mar 10, 2016, 11:36 PM
Mar 2016

...except that taking everything isn't enough. Even if it happens (which I still think is unlikely), he has to win by LARGE margins to offset Clinton's existing delegate balance. Winning MI with 49.8% isn't a sign of a significant voter shift.

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