2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHRC did get 57% of Democratic vote. Sanders pulled ahead with "independents"
... I wonder how many "independents" were Republicans for Bernie..
http://www.dailynewsbin.com/opinion/hillary-clinton-won-57-of-michigan-democrats-but-independents-took-it-for-bernie-sanders/24060/
Bernie Sanders won the Michigan democratic primary by receiving fifty percent of the vote, while his opponent Hillary Clinton received just forty-eight of the vote. Pollsters and analysts have been scrambling to figure out why their predictions, which said Hillary would win the state by around fifteen percent, turned out to be so wrong. But one key detail fully explains why they were off by such a large margin: she won the democratic vote handily, but he dominated with independents.
It turns out Hillary Clinton received 57% of the votes of Michigan democrats, with Bernie Sanders receiving just 41% according to CNN. In other words, her sixteen percent margin of victory with democrats was right in line with what the pollsters predicted. But because Michigan is an open primary which allows people of any stripe to vote in either the democratic or republican primary, large numbers of independents voted on the democratic site and seventy-one percent of them voted for Bernie.
That alone was enough to erase what would have been a sixteen point blowout victory for Hillary, and instead it handed Bernie a two point victory. The rules in Michigan allowed it; there was no cheating or fraud involved. But it does force us to look at the Michigan upset in a different light. What it means is that the pollsters werent actually wrong about democrats and none of those democrats changed their minds.
So while Bernie has to be feeling good that his persistent effort at getting non-democrats to turn out for him in Michigan paid off, the numbers tell us that he wasnt able to change the minds of any democrats over the past weeks. Michigan democrats still voted for Hillary in as much of a blowout margin as they spent the past few months telling us they would in the polls.
In other words, Bernie isnt changing anything in the democratic race. Hes merely supplementing his vote total with the support of outsiders, in the states where the law allows for it. Unfortunately for him, only seven of the nations twenty-nine remaining states have open primaries, and most of those seven have at least some provisions making it harder for independents to vote in the primary than Michigan does. In other words, this isnt the start of a trend for Sanders, but rather the culmination of a one-trick pony type of strategy he employed.
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daleanime
(17,796 posts)'Recoverin'?
Recoverin_Republican
(218 posts)know their propaganda machine will tear him to pieces. And I do know something about the Republican base: they are highly susceptible to the GOP disinformation machine. The GOP will have them believing Bernie will build a Kremlin on the Potomac and confiscate their 'wealth' - all those pickup trucks (along with the foundation blocks)!
Cavallo
(348 posts)Baobab
(4,667 posts)in the primaries too. is that what you mean, I hear its happening again, this time for Hillary. After all, she's a neoliberal too.
The GOP "hatred" of Obama is fake. .
giftedgirl77
(4,713 posts)Baobab
(4,667 posts)All the right wingers tried to say the surge was for Hillary..
But it was really for Obama.
Thats how they do things these days.
merrily
(45,251 posts)The Republican propaganda machine will attack any Democrat with a shot at the Presidency. It's a non issue.
They couldn't ask for a more corporate friendly candidate.
fun n serious
(4,451 posts)fun n serious
(4,451 posts)liberal_at_heart
(12,081 posts)will become irrelevant.
Cavallo
(348 posts)bklyncowgirl
(7,960 posts)There are people who could have gone for the Trumpler and instead felt the Bern. Not a bad thing in my humble opinion.
gcomeau
(5,764 posts)monicaangela
(1,508 posts)let him find out slowly.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Even in the crucial state of Ohio, which Obama won in spite of Romney winning the independent vote in that state by 10 points.
fun n serious
(4,451 posts)We are not a small collective. Who needs who?
gcomeau
(5,764 posts)...that Democrats won't vote in numbers for the Democratic nominee if it's Sanders compared to Independents not voting in numbers for Clinton if she's the nominee?
Because that would be remarkably delusional.
fun n serious
(4,451 posts)Fairgo
(1,571 posts)Most of the "recovering" republicans feel most comfortable with the far right wing of the party. Closest to their comfort zone.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Also, reports that many Flint residents were turned away because they ran out of ballots.
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)Must have been chaos there!
BlueMTexpat
(15,369 posts)on DU, I would wonder more about this.
Flint Polling Places Ran Out Of Ballots, Turned Voters Away http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2016/03/08/3757998/michigan-ballots-shortage/
Even with independents voting for Bernie and even if "skulduggery," Hillary didn't lose by all that much in MI.
No matter how much the online echo chamber of social media may wish otherwise, Hillary has strong and solid support throughout the country. She has this support in real life. The incessant derision towards and debasement of Hillary by some on Democratic websites that only serve to amplify GOPer TPs has Republicans chuckling gleefully as they watch self-styled "Democrats" tear the strongest Dem candidate to shreds.
Even after MI, Hillary is still in the lead by 1.6 million+ in popular votes and >200 delegates. These are hardly the signs of a losing campaign.
Cavallo
(348 posts)Showing up now with the biggest banksters on wall street behind her got exactly what is expected - half the Dems to reject her as the 1% candidate.
It's 2016 and the 1% is considered our greatest threat. They are behind everything we associate as bad - climate change and trade pacs included.
The DNC is in grave danger of splitting it's base just like the RNC when their base realized they were supporting a party that was supporting the 1% and not them.
GOP. Ha. We're fighting the Tea Party. The GOP got vacated when they didn't support their base and instead went for the 1%.
That 1% thingy is a really big deal. I can't believe there are people missing it. I mean, it's the great Democratic divide this year...
It's what the ENTIRE election is about across all parties. But here's the Democratic party:
Hillary = Putocracy (we can prove this by her super pac)
Bernie = People (we can prove this by his lack of super pac)
DNC = Plutocracy (we can prove this by their super delegates literally being lobbyists in many cases)
You seem to have completely overlooked it in your post.
Why would people vote for Hillary when 75% of the entire country doesn't want the 1% plutocrats in charge anymore?
Welcome to the 25% of America. The other 75% of us can't guess how you're missing what this entire election is about. I mean the republicans rejected their plutocrat - Jeb Bush, almost unanimously. How on earth can there be half the Dems voting for ours - Hillary...
BlueMTexpat
(15,369 posts)In fact.
But she lost to President Obama, who managed to save this country from totally going under. She wants to continue what he began and make improvements.
If so many people do NOT want Hillary, why is her popular vote tally higher than any candidate running in either party and 1.6 million+ more than Bernie's?
Or do real votes count nothing?
Cavallo
(348 posts)would never vote for him because of it.
Again, it isn't that she is unlikeable, it's what is standing behind her paying for her presidential run.
And it's that she is a war hawk.
Don't get me wrong, she may get my vote regardless - to stop Trump.
I voted for Obama both times. I watched Hillary while she was in the Senate and she kept going against the Dems. Her and Pelosi had this great lip service then doing the opposite routine that went on for years. You could count on them to always cave at the last minute to appease the republicans and throw away more food stamp funding, or anything they could find that would hurt the poor and support the military industrial complex.
thesquanderer
(11,990 posts)...only makes sense if there is no competitive contest on your own side (i.e. there's an incumbent, or your party's nomination is pretty much wrapped up), or you really don't care who your own party puts up. None of those things are likely to be true for Republicans so far this year.
Non-Dems who chose to vote for Bernie in the primary probably did so because they sincerely want to be able to vote for Bernie in November. So I'd say it's actually an encouraging sign. Even for Hillary, somewhat, if she becomes the nominee, since it's evidence of how unhappy many non-Dems are with the available choices on the other side. Though it would be tougher for Hillary because her negatives outside the Dem base are so high, so some of these "crossover" votes may have a harder time making the choice, or may just stay home.
Cavallo
(348 posts)femmedem
(8,203 posts)and disillusioned with politics. I am proud to support a candidate who inspires them to vote in a primary. Most of the ones I know have traditional Democratic values, but have come to believe that the Democratic Party is too far to the right, too incrementalist, and too corrupted by money to act boldly on their behalf.
I live in a closed primary state, and I have to admit that I was always skeptical of open primaries out of fear of nominating someone who didn't represent Democratic values. This primary has caused me to change my mind.
liberal_at_heart
(12,081 posts)Once I started seeing my kids suffer directly from how much both the Republicans and Democrats were messing up the country I left the party. Race to the Top and Common Core were the last straws for me. Also the fact that the Democrats are too afraid to talk about raising taxes. Then they cave to tax cuts for the rich and cuts to social services. I have friends who just lost SSI and my son will be filing for SSI soon and I'm not very confident he will get anything because of the cuts they have made. I am now a proud Independent and will only vote for politicians who have enough courage to talk about raising taxes and say no to cutting social services.
femmedem
(8,203 posts)I joined our local Democratic Town Committee (as did a fair number of other strongly liberal people) in order to push our DTC to the left. At our next meeting we'll be arguing on behalf of Bernie Sanders, and (best case scenario) preventing the DTC from endorsing Hillary in advance of our primary.
But I can also understand leaving the Democratic party if they don't give you a reason to vote for them. In an open primary state, it would be more tempting.
liberal_at_heart
(12,081 posts)Lucinda
(31,170 posts)Jitter65
(3,089 posts)to those who just want to cause problems for party candidates they don't like.
The last thing you want to do when picking a nominee for the general election is ask the people you critically need to vote for that nominee in the general election for their input!
Also, my idiot company needs to stop asking customers what they want. "Market Research" Pfft. Just let us engineers build whatever we want! Customers don't work here,, why do they get a say in anything?
</sarcasm>
merrily
(45,251 posts)damonm
(2,655 posts)Of a group that comprises 29% of the electorate.
AKA: 16.3%. Added to the pathetic 29% she pulled among the independents who comprise 46% of the electorate, or 13.34%.
Those numbers do NOT add up well for Hillary in the general.
monicaangela
(1,508 posts)PRINCETON, NJ -- Forty-two percent of Americans, on average, identified as political independents in 2013, the highest Gallup has measured since it began conducting interviews by telephone 25 years ago. Meanwhile, Republican identification fell to 25%, the lowest over that time span. At 31%, Democratic identification is unchanged from the last four years but down from 36% in 2008.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/166763/record-high-americans-identify-independents.aspx
TM99
(8,352 posts)than the GOP and Democratic registered ones combined.
And they split down the middle pretty evenly supporting rightist and leftist politicians.
Furthermore, closed primary states still allow for voter registration months before the actual primary so many independents have re-registered as Democrats in order to vote. I have done so in Arizona and helped to push the drive to measure many, many more.
This new meme that all independents who voted for Sanders are 'closet Republicans' is just flat out bullshit. The meme that states that closed primaries are somehow markededly different than open primaries is also flat out bullshit. It does not comport to the facts as they stand.
Finally, Daily News Bin is another site like Blue Nation Review which were set up last summer with ties to the Clinton campaign. This is not a legit news site but rather a propaganda arm of the Clinton Machine.
thesquanderer
(11,990 posts)The polls did not just poll Dems. Most, if not all of them polled people who were likely to vote in the Democratic primary, including independents who so identified themselves.
arcane1
(38,613 posts)Clinton lost. Get over it.
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)will be voting for Sanders in the General also. He is bring people over to his side. Something Clinton can't do.
azurnoir
(45,850 posts)the article the OP is based on is listed as opinion and contains no link to CNN, something reputable sources do when they're quoting another source-operation chaos indeed
appalachiablue
(41,146 posts)Jester Messiah
(4,711 posts)So maybe you should go with a candidate that doesn't send them rushing for the exits?
MellowDem
(5,018 posts)As we already know most Democrats identify as moderate or conservative, many liberal independents are likely to be inspired by Bernie and vote for him, cause the Democratic Party, as a moderate Conservative party, doesn't inspire them much.
Ruby the Liberal
(26,219 posts)If only the General were democrats-only, aye?
liberal_at_heart
(12,081 posts)argument.
tblue37
(65,408 posts)Dem2
(8,168 posts)This is just an excuse for crappy polling. All the pollster has to do is ask which primary are you going to vote in - Democratic or Republican?
I have never registered to either party and I have voted in both Democratic and Republican primaries as I see fit. There are good reasons, for instance when your candidate is unopposed, to vote in the other party's primary.
So just to be clear, I am registered as independent and yet I have never voted for a republican. I don't count taking a Republican ballot when the Democrat was running unopposed. It did feel dirty though. The only trick is one must re register as independent after participating in a primary, or one is automatically registered to the party of the ballot one chose.
ConsiderThis_2016
(274 posts)Kalidurga
(14,177 posts)Recursion
(56,582 posts)Number23
(24,544 posts)And the fact that this is allowed to continue is incredible. She won 57% of Democrats and still lost in a Dem primary. This is insane.
Samantha
(9,314 posts)just this year. About 3,500 had re-registered as Republicans and the rest registered as Democrats. That alone should tell the Democratic party SOMETHING. Early in this election season, I posted that Bernie was carrying 51 percent of the Independents as well as some Republicans (he generally gets 25 percent of the Republican votes when he runs in Vermont). He has a huge crossover appeal that I don't think Clinton has, and this will make a difference in the General Election.
But the question is I knew about this mix early on, why didn't people who do polling as their profession know it? Sometimes it really is not all about the "math"; the human factor is just as important, and at this moment in time nobody can really predict the outcome that accurately.
Sam
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)Okay so. To recap.
Hillary Clinton and her supporters absolutely under any circumstances do not want nor need the votes of the left of the party.
Nor do they want Independent voters who caucus and vote with us
And they very certainly do not want any crossover appeal from Republicans.
Best of luck in the general election with this plan, guys.
beedle
(1,235 posts)Of course the establishment candidate of the Democratic party would get the most support of the people who register as Democratic.
The Democratic party (and the Republican party) have been shrinking for years, as people on both sides who are sick and tired of the establishment candidates passing legislation written by big banks and corporate lobbyists.
Independents are now almost 50% of the registered voters. Most of the Democrats who would vote for Bernie were fed up long ago and left to become independent (or never joined a party at all because they saw how corrupt the party system was.)
Hillary's natural constituency is the Democratic party, just as 'scum' is the natural constituency of a barrel of evaporated water ... her constituency is the part of the party that weren't driven (evaporated) out in disgust. There's a lake full of pure water down the road, but the Democratic party is bragging how the majority of the people who still 'drink from the scum filled barrel of water' support Hillary.
A shrinking Democratic party, that supports and votes for the establishment candidate is not something to brag about. It should be looked at and invoke shame for the people who remain members, and disgust from the rest of the progressive world.
The really big problem is, is that under the current Washington system you can not realistically be elected president unless you are part of one of the two parties. That's why Bernie had to run as a Democratic party member, and why there are still true progressives, with iron stomachs, still in the party fighting from within the ranks.
I'm sure DU is not the place to be saying this, but DU should be about supporting democratic principles, and not about supporting some organization devoted to corporations and rich lobbyists, whose only connection to democracy, freedom, and justice is that they have the word 'Democratic' in their title.
Roland99
(53,342 posts)Dems will vote for him, plus he'll pull in large numbers of Independents.
The same can't be said going the other way.