makes me respect Nate a lot less.

He stated the facts.

And there are facts that make an iota of difference.

These snap polls are comforting, but what matters is the poll on Nov. 6 and to a lesser extent the polls on what voters say they will do on Nov. 6.

I think this debate will serve Obama well. But not because of the snap polls. I could see that he had better clarity and more command than Romney. I could also see that at points, especially when talking about the economy, Romney was more comfortable and his message had more clarity (than when Romney talked about other subjects).

I follow Nate not for his minute by minute reactions, but for his systematic aggregation of all the meaningful data into a predictive model. The Snap Polls do not matter to the predictive model and are, therefore, noise masquerading as statistics.

comment before November 6th?

I don't follow Nate for his tweets, but the fact that he mentioned all the snap polls, an a short, concise comment was informational. The 'consensus' is that Obama won the debate.

and Nate is a guy whose stock in trade is sorting through the chaff to the wheat.

And these snap polls are definitely chaff.

We know that Obama won the debate because we watched it. In the days to come we will see what effect this has.

to prognosticate. But, they do help with the narrative .. regardless of what 'we' know.

If not, someone send it to the dear boy so he can make his calculations.

Cha.

OWNAGE

DU.