2016 Postmortem

Skwmom

(12,685 posts) Tue Mar 15, 2016, 09:00 PM Mar 2016

Ohio Primary Results?

I finally found the official site and noted most of the counties seemed to have a sixty some to 30 some split for Bernie with 0% reporting. Where these absentees?

https://vote.ohio.gov/

7 replies

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Ohio Primary Results? (Original Post) Skwmom Mar 2016 OP

I wish I knew! Ino Mar 2016 #1

It just seemed odd that in the overwhelming majority of the counties with zero precincts reporting Skwmom Mar 2016 #7

the whole state only has 9% reporting.... smiley Mar 2016 #2

That's what I'd like to know! Luciferous Mar 2016 #3

Because data analysts are smart... brooklynite Mar 2016 #4

Do you really want an answer? Godhumor Mar 2016 #5

NYT link now has 25% reporting BumRushDaShow Mar 2016 #6

Ino

(3,366 posts)

1. I wish I knew!

Reply to Skwmom (Original post)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 09:09 PM

Mar 2016

There are counties like that all over Ohio ... 0% reporting, but she's ahead by thousands of votes?

Also St. Louis County, MO... 0% reporting, but she's 3K+ votes ahead?
http://graphics.latimes.com/election-2016-missouri-results/

WTH is going on?!

Skwmom

(12,685 posts)

7. It just seemed odd that in the overwhelming majority of the counties with zero precincts reporting

Reply to Ino (Reply #1)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 10:43 PM

Mar 2016

it was a 60 something to 30 something percent. In fact it didn't seem like there were many that didn't have that allocation.

smiley

(1,432 posts)

2. the whole state only has 9% reporting....

Reply to Skwmom (Original post)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 09:18 PM

Mar 2016

How do they declare someone a winner with only that small percentage of the vote in?

Luciferous

(6,082 posts)

3. That's what I'd like to know!

Reply to smiley (Reply #2)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 09:24 PM

Mar 2016

brooklynite

(94,598 posts)

4. Because data analysts are smart...

Reply to smiley (Reply #2)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 09:25 PM

Mar 2016

...and can infer results from key precincts.

Godhumor

(6,437 posts)

5. Do you really want an answer?

Reply to smiley (Reply #2)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 09:27 PM

Mar 2016

I can make a post on statistical inference for races, but it will be lengthy and time consuming to write.

The short answer is that key demographics, returns, observable trends and some exit polling can lead to a very high confidence level on how the race will ultimately play out.

BumRushDaShow

(129,104 posts)

6. NYT link now has 25% reporting

Reply to smiley (Reply #2)

Tue Mar 15, 2016, 09:35 PM

Mar 2016

and 60/39% Clinton.

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results

They often do that if they are seeing a strong trend in favor of one candidate in the early tallies -usually coming from the least populated areas, where the urban areas won't be reporting until much later... And since those urban areas are already considered a "given" for a particular candidate, then this is often enough to call the whole thing early. However if the early tallies are consistently running close, then they'll wait.

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