2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumBernie can still win the nomination. He just needs to win all the rest by 72%.
Yes, it's tough math but, but It can be done.
Response to RealAmericanDem (Original post)
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NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... it would be unlikely to happen on its own, and now that it's clear that HILLARY will be our nominee, the money that supports his campaign will begin to dwindle away.
Go, Hillary! We love you!
bobbobbins01
(1,681 posts)Your number would be with super delegates. I may be wrong though.
Lucky Luciano
(11,257 posts)Having said that, unless something catastrophic happens, she will get the lion's share of supers, even if she just gets the ones from the states she won, so the "real" number is probably somewhere in the 61% range. But winning 59% will be hard enough. He needs to win consistently and big from here on out. He can't just score big in little states, he needs big wins in NY, NJ, PA AND CA. And he will lose some states coming up, so that makes the task all the harder.
thesquanderer
(11,990 posts)There is zero difference in the status of super delegates between states she has won and states she has not. They are all exactly equally flexible in their vote at the convention. They simply do not count as "fixed" for anyone until the day of the convention.
You can count them all to get a subjective sense of her support within the party, or count none of them to count her actual competitive delegate status, but there is no rationale to count some but not others (i.e. count ones in states that she won versus ones in states she lost, or count those in states which have voted but not in states that have not voted).
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)many Sanders supporters have argued that the SD's should vote the way their state does. But you are right, and the SD's can vote however they want. In fact, I think she will get MORE than just the ones from the states she won.
Response to RealAmericanDem (Original post)
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Nitram
(22,822 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)RealAmericanDem
(221 posts)to win a majority in pledged delegates, he needs to win 58 percent of those remaining.
http://www.vox.com/2016/3/15/11243398/bernie-sanders-election-results-2016-winning
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Yes the supers can switch sides but you would need almost all to do this to make a difference. If just half switch it takes it from 72% to about 62%.
morningfog
(18,115 posts)The supers will follow the pledged delegate winner.
Even 58% is nearly impossible.
RealAmericanDem
(221 posts)Here is a link showing where the delegates stood when Obama won the nomination in '08.
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegates/
DemRace
(28 posts)morningfog
(18,115 posts)Look, 58% is all but insurmountable at this point. But, that is the reality of what it would take.
DemRace
(28 posts)firebrand80
(2,760 posts)DemRace
(28 posts)jcgoldie
(11,631 posts)...but it means he has to win every state (or at least the average state) by 16 percentage points going forward. Think that's possible in NY or CA or PA... I do not.
cosmicone
(11,014 posts)All he has to do is win CA, NJ and NY with 86% of the vote. Other states wouldn't matter.