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Bernie can still win the nomination. He just needs to win all the rest by 72%. (Original Post) RealAmericanDem Mar 2016 OP
Post removed Post removed Mar 2016 #1
That's a tall order. Actually, it's a VERY TALL order ... NurseJackie Mar 2016 #2
I think the number is 59% bobbobbins01 Mar 2016 #3
You are correct. nt Lucky Luciano Mar 2016 #4
Yup. Adrahil Mar 2016 #5
re: "even if she just gets the ones from the states she won" thesquanderer Mar 2016 #11
The rationale is simply because.... Adrahil Mar 2016 #14
Post removed Post removed Mar 2016 #6
Foggy, can't you ask nicely? Nitram Mar 2016 #7
I can, but not always. morningfog Mar 2016 #8
Try these links and then factor in the supers. RealAmericanDem Mar 2016 #9
So the number is 58%. morningfog Mar 2016 #10
Almost half the pledged delegates stayed with Hillary to the end in '08. RealAmericanDem Mar 2016 #12
Are the States in the same order? DemRace Mar 2016 #16
Yes, they are not a monolithic body, but collectively they are not fools. morningfog Mar 2016 #18
You are correct DemRace Mar 2016 #17
May as well pencil in NY at about 60-40 to Hillary firebrand80 Mar 2016 #13
DemRace.com has it at 58% - Link inside... DemRace Mar 2016 #15
58% is the correct number jcgoldie Mar 2016 #20
Bernie can definitely win cosmicone Mar 2016 #19

Response to RealAmericanDem (Original post)

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
2. That's a tall order. Actually, it's a VERY TALL order ...
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 08:23 AM
Mar 2016

... it would be unlikely to happen on its own, and now that it's clear that HILLARY will be our nominee, the money that supports his campaign will begin to dwindle away.

Go, Hillary! We love you!


 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
5. Yup.
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 08:43 AM
Mar 2016

Having said that, unless something catastrophic happens, she will get the lion's share of supers, even if she just gets the ones from the states she won, so the "real" number is probably somewhere in the 61% range. But winning 59% will be hard enough. He needs to win consistently and big from here on out. He can't just score big in little states, he needs big wins in NY, NJ, PA AND CA. And he will lose some states coming up, so that makes the task all the harder.

thesquanderer

(11,990 posts)
11. re: "even if she just gets the ones from the states she won"
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 09:08 AM
Mar 2016

There is zero difference in the status of super delegates between states she has won and states she has not. They are all exactly equally flexible in their vote at the convention. They simply do not count as "fixed" for anyone until the day of the convention.

You can count them all to get a subjective sense of her support within the party, or count none of them to count her actual competitive delegate status, but there is no rationale to count some but not others (i.e. count ones in states that she won versus ones in states she lost, or count those in states which have voted but not in states that have not voted).

 

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)
14. The rationale is simply because....
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 09:25 AM
Mar 2016

many Sanders supporters have argued that the SD's should vote the way their state does. But you are right, and the SD's can vote however they want. In fact, I think she will get MORE than just the ones from the states she won.

Response to RealAmericanDem (Original post)

RealAmericanDem

(221 posts)
9. Try these links and then factor in the supers.
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 08:56 AM
Mar 2016

to win a majority in pledged delegates, he needs to win 58 percent of those remaining.


http://www.vox.com/2016/3/15/11243398/bernie-sanders-election-results-2016-winning
______________

Yes the supers can switch sides but you would need almost all to do this to make a difference. If just half switch it takes it from 72% to about 62%.
 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
10. So the number is 58%.
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 08:58 AM
Mar 2016

The supers will follow the pledged delegate winner.

Even 58% is nearly impossible.

RealAmericanDem

(221 posts)
12. Almost half the pledged delegates stayed with Hillary to the end in '08.
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 09:13 AM
Mar 2016

Here is a link showing where the delegates stood when Obama won the nomination in '08.

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegates/
 

morningfog

(18,115 posts)
18. Yes, they are not a monolithic body, but collectively they are not fools.
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 09:54 AM
Mar 2016

Look, 58% is all but insurmountable at this point. But, that is the reality of what it would take.

jcgoldie

(11,631 posts)
20. 58% is the correct number
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 10:03 AM
Mar 2016

...but it means he has to win every state (or at least the average state) by 16 percentage points going forward. Think that's possible in NY or CA or PA... I do not.

 

cosmicone

(11,014 posts)
19. Bernie can definitely win
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 09:57 AM
Mar 2016

All he has to do is win CA, NJ and NY with 86% of the vote. Other states wouldn't matter.

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