2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWill Hillary or Trump get more votes from those that voted against them in the primary?
Before last night I saw where Hillary had more total votes than Trump. That's a good thing, however more votes had been cast for republicans than for the democrats in the primary.
Trump needs to convince all those who voted for him and any of the 37 other repukes in the primary to vote for him in the General.
Hillary needs to convince all those who voted for her, Sanders, and O'Malley to vote for her in the General. She will also have to win over a fairly large number of people who didn't vote for any democrat in the primary. Can she convince enough of these "others" to win?
It's not about the base or party loyalists, but can Hillary pick up enough votes from average people?
I saw an average of polls that have Hillary up by 6 points and favored to win.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Hillary has more popular votes than any candidate running.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)between the conservatives and the rest of america can be clearly defined. I suspect hillary will name Julian Castro as her VP selection which will solidly give democrats the hispanic votes all over the country no matter who is on the conservative ticket. We can only hope its trump....he is so out of his element and his depth when it comes down to a political campaign as he can't stop himself from insulting any and every one......so no doubt in my mind....democrats will gain an great advantage.....and if the gop convention turns into a brawl...and a good chance it does....even more will go democratic...
Chan790
(20,176 posts)The person running in a 4/5-way race that has been drawing more total votes (between its 4/5 candidates) will get more support from former non-supporters than the person in a two-way race that has been drawing less total votes between its two candidates.
Skwmom
(12,685 posts)polls for him.
mikehiggins
(5,614 posts)Donnie Bob will stay his course. There will be no "pivoting" to the center or softening his message to appeal to a growing number of moderates and disaffected Dems. His people will stay his people up until the end, joined by those who want to back a "winner" and those who just absolutely and totally HATE Hillary.
HRC will have to "pivot" as the media and the pundits explain at every opportunity. In the process she will shed Progressives like a dog sheds its hair.
Will most Americans believe that Trump and Co are precursors of facism or worse? Nah. Not with the media doing their best to keep the image of "populism" going. The irony, among many, is that the media will be the first to feel the whip once Trump gets going.
Hari Seldon was right. You can't predict what individuals will do but you can see where the mob is heading. (Asimov reference)