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Donald Ian Rankin

(13,598 posts)
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 02:35 PM Mar 2016

If Sanders were going to outperform Clinton in the general, he would be doing so in the primary.

I've seen a lot of people claiming that Sanders would be more likely than Clinton to win the general election.

Almost exclusively, those people also believed that Sanders was going to win the primary, which should cast some doubt on their judgement, although some of them are now beginning to acknowledge that it is looking unlikely. But there's another, more important, reason not to accept that claim (actually, there are lots, but here's one: )

The narrative behind Bernie Sanders' claim to electability is that he can energise people, especially among the young, who want a more passionately left-wing government. He says that there are a lot of such people - enough to constitute a revolution - who have not voted in large numbers in the past, but would do for him.

The thing is that if this phenomenon were real, its effect would be more noticeable in the primary - where turnout is much lower, and left-wing views more widespread - than it will be in the general.

The primary electorate is more favourable to Sanders compared to Clinton than the general electorate will be. So if he has won the primary, it would not necessarily have proven that he were more electable (although it would be circumstantial evidence that he might be), but when she does, it will conclusively demonstrate that she is.

If Clinton can beat Sanders in the primary with a message tailored less specifically for the primary electorate, and more generally for the country as a whole, than his, it will prove that she is the candidate more likely to win the general.

32 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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If Sanders were going to outperform Clinton in the general, he would be doing so in the primary. (Original Post) Donald Ian Rankin Mar 2016 OP
Bernies beats everyone with independents, dont forget that. litlbilly Mar 2016 #1
Hillary herself says the smart thing is to wait until June. arcane1 Mar 2016 #2
Sorry, but the effect IS noticeable in open primaries. Lizzie Poppet Mar 2016 #3
yup ibegurpard Mar 2016 #12
After virtually tying all states last night, we are leading the revolution zappaman Mar 2016 #4
I see art, and not math, is your strong suit! Lucinda Mar 2016 #18
Only IL and MO were close leftynyc Mar 2016 #19
"Virtually" Ha! :-P There's that word again ... NurseJackie Mar 2016 #21
By this Logic NowSam Mar 2016 #5
The average Democratic voter thinks Hillary is more electable than Bernie Tom Rinaldo Mar 2016 #6
you are correct ibegurpard Mar 2016 #14
if Bernie had almost the entire MSM and the DNC behind him dana_b Mar 2016 #7
Not necessarily if a substantial number of Bernie supporters check out aikoaiko Mar 2016 #8
Some dem primaries Indies can't vote. HooptieWagon Mar 2016 #9
If the corporate media conglomerates had kept Bernie's face and message front and center along the Uncle Joe Mar 2016 #10
Most of Clinton's votes come from states that ALWAYS vote republican fbc Mar 2016 #11
I think you need to check your numbers. Donald Ian Rankin Mar 2016 #15
How would Bernie beat the Republicans while losing Florida, Virginia, and Ohio? geek tragedy Mar 2016 #24
That would only be true if they only allowed Democrats to vote in the General. pdsimdars Mar 2016 #13
Where would Hillary be right now if it weren't for Old Dixie? Impedimentus Mar 2016 #16
Not true at all. Hillary is not well liked among independents, who always decide elections. reformist2 Mar 2016 #17
Speaking as an independent DebDoo Mar 2016 #20
The electorate in a primary is nothing like the electorate in the general DefenseLawyer Mar 2016 #22
yeah, generally not credible for the loser to claim to be a better candidate nt geek tragedy Mar 2016 #23
How Bernie and Hillary fare against each other in a primary... thesquanderer Mar 2016 #25
He's Poised To Outperform Starting Next Week corbettkroehler Mar 2016 #26
We must also consider the anticipated Republican attacks. Jim Lane Mar 2016 #27
Right, Sanders = stifle the hate machine marions ghost Mar 2016 #29
K & R SunSeeker Mar 2016 #28
Well, that's obviously not necessarily true. Trump is outperforming in the GOP primaries Recursion Mar 2016 #30
assuming dems won't line up behind Sanders and that republicans will line up behind Trump magical thyme Mar 2016 #31
Nope, not at all jfern Mar 2016 #32
 

Lizzie Poppet

(10,164 posts)
3. Sorry, but the effect IS noticeable in open primaries.
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 02:40 PM
Mar 2016

Not in that he's winning them...but in the voting patterns of independents (40% of the electorate). Hillary tanks among independents, and that will depress turnout among more-liberal independents.

The primary electorate is more favorable to Sanders compared to Clinton than the general electorate will be.


I couldn't disagree more. The primary electorate is comprised, in most states, largely of "party faithful" types and AA voters. The perfect Clinton demographics...

NowSam

(1,252 posts)
5. By this Logic
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 02:43 PM
Mar 2016

Hillary is getting roughly half of Dems supporting her which is maybe 25% of the voters in the general. That's not good. She needs lots of Independents and Republicans to vote for her too but you know what, they seem to prefer the arrogant a$$, Trump. Why? Because he is completely real about who and what he is. He knows he is a pompous ass and he plays it up to the hilt. Hillary's hands are tied by her sponsors so she can't give a real consistent answer on anything because she isn't free to do so. She is bought and paid for and beholden to her sponsors and not to the people. Just my opinion (And lots of other people's)

Tom Rinaldo

(22,913 posts)
6. The average Democratic voter thinks Hillary is more electable than Bernie
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 02:49 PM
Mar 2016

That has always been the case. Many Sanders supporters think it is partially because she is so much better known (especially among Democrats) with high profile experience in the public eye for so long. Whatever the reason there has been a constant undercurrent throughout the campaign so far of some voters saying they prefer Bernie on the issues but thinking they should back Hillary because they fear a Republican win in November.

You may feel Hillary would be the stronger candidate yourself, I don't, but my point is that I know there are many primary voters who like Bernie more but went with Hillary because of her "experience" etc. in anticipation of the Fall. My position is that fear has kept some from supporting Bernie or he would be doing better than he has in the primaries. Those voters would certainly back him against the Republicans.

My concern is that Hillary is weaker among Independents, and they are a huge voting block.

ibegurpard

(16,685 posts)
14. you are correct
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 03:22 PM
Mar 2016

And much more diplomatic about it than i. Foolish lemming behavior is how I would describe it.

aikoaiko

(34,172 posts)
8. Not necessarily if a substantial number of Bernie supporters check out
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 03:03 PM
Mar 2016

HRC supporters are essentially party loyalists and will vote for who ever is the nominee, but they prefer HRC because she is a lot like Bill and Barack.

Bernie supporters are not necessarily party loyalists and a substantial portion may not show up.


 

HooptieWagon

(17,064 posts)
9. Some dem primaries Indies can't vote.
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 03:06 PM
Mar 2016

Whereas in the GE, not only do Indies vote, neither party can win without capturing a majority of Independants.

Uncle Joe

(58,367 posts)
10. If the corporate media conglomerates had kept Bernie's face and message front and center along the
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 03:08 PM
Mar 2016

lines of Trump, Democratic turnout would be much greater.

Instead they did their best to black out, demean and distort his message and record because they have an inherent conflict of interest in regards to Bernie's proposed policies.

The General Election is based on the entire nation, the vast majority of primaries have been held in the conservative South and this helped Hillary in tailoring a less progressive message.

Thanks for the thread, Donald Ian Rankin.

 

fbc

(1,668 posts)
11. Most of Clinton's votes come from states that ALWAYS vote republican
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 03:10 PM
Mar 2016

How does a primary candidate's performance in states like South Carolina mean anything in a general election?

Donald Ian Rankin

(13,598 posts)
15. I think you need to check your numbers.
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 03:27 PM
Mar 2016

States Clinton has won:

Iowa
Nevada
South Carolina
Alabama
American Samoa
Arkansas
Georgia
Massachusetts
Tennessee
Texas
Virginia
Louisiana
Mississippi
Northern Marianas
Florida
Illinois
Missouri
North Carolina
Ohio

State Sanders has won:

New Hampshire
Colorado
Minnesota
Oklahoma
Kansas
Nebraska
Maine
Michigan


How you classify states as red/blue/purple is debatable, but it's hard to argue that she hasn't won more states in all three categories. In particular, of the seven states politico lists as "swing" - Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Florida - Clinton has won 5, while Sanders has only won 2.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
24. How would Bernie beat the Republicans while losing Florida, Virginia, and Ohio?
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 06:00 PM
Mar 2016

Mind you--he not only lost those states, he got obliterated in two of them and merely whupped in the third.

 

pdsimdars

(6,007 posts)
13. That would only be true if they only allowed Democrats to vote in the General.
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 03:21 PM
Mar 2016

But that's not the case. Democrats are only 31% of the voters. The independents are over 40%. With Republicans making up the rest. So, about 70% are NOT Democrats. So, your argument makes no sense at all . . . just words on paper.
And EVERY poll shows Bernie doing much better than Clinton among Republicans and Independents. In Vermont he regularly got 20% of the Republican vote. Hillary can not do that.

DebDoo

(319 posts)
20. Speaking as an independent
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 04:05 PM
Mar 2016

Dislike is an understatement. Independents are independents for a reason - we like to make our own choices, and watching what the DNC has done to manipulate this primary angers us more than someone with democrat party loyalty can ever understand.

 

DefenseLawyer

(11,101 posts)
22. The electorate in a primary is nothing like the electorate in the general
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 05:33 PM
Mar 2016

Relatively speaking, a tiny percentage of people vote in party primaries. Even winning 100% of the Democrats who vote in the Mississippi primary, for example, would have absolute ZERO bearing on winning the general election. In every state, the percentage of people who participate in the primaries is too small to extrapolate much of anything about the general election.

thesquanderer

(11,990 posts)
25. How Bernie and Hillary fare against each other in a primary...
Wed Mar 16, 2016, 07:18 PM
Mar 2016

...has nothing to do with how either of them would fare against Trump.

Different opponent.

Different pool of voters.

No relevance whatsoever.

 

Jim Lane

(11,175 posts)
27. We must also consider the anticipated Republican attacks.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 01:44 AM
Mar 2016

I agree with the several comments upthread, that the single biggest flaw in your analysis is the two candidates' current respective strength among independents.

In addition, though, we have to take into account what's likely to happen in the campaign. Clinton supporters understand this perfectly well when they invoke the specter of Koch money funding ads attacking Sanders as a socialist. That's a valid point, but it works the other way, too. Sanders has not done a Trump-style attack on Clinton's integrity. Things will be different this fall. If the race is Trump versus Clinton, Trump won't be getting bogged down in issues about college tuition programs and Glass-Steagall and the like. He'll downplay policy and hit Clinton's weakest point, the widespread public mistrust of her. Expect to hear about emails and Clinton Foundation money and Bosnian sniper fire and on and on and on. Many of the people who've voted for Clinton in the primaries will be turned by this stuff and will vote against her in the general election.

Sanders, by contrast, doesn't offer Trump nearly so much fuel for his hate machine. It will be much harder for Trump to distract people from policy issues if he's facing Sanders.

marions ghost

(19,841 posts)
29. Right, Sanders = stifle the hate machine
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 06:40 AM
Mar 2016

"Sanders, by contrast, doesn't offer Trump nearly so much fuel for his hate machine. It will be much harder for Trump to distract people from policy issues if he's facing Sanders."

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

WHY don't people see this? In attracting the general public to the polls (esp the ones who don't tend to vote in primaries) --there is a stark contrast between Sanders and Trump.
Two clearly different directions. Both speaking to the "fed up" American voters.

With Hillary, not.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
30. Well, that's obviously not necessarily true. Trump is outperforming in the GOP primaries
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 06:58 AM
Mar 2016

and he'd do the worst of the R's in the general.

Our two candidates' performances in the general are strongly dependent on whom the GOP nominates. Clinton is stronger against Trump or Rubio; Sanders is stronger against Cruz or Kasich. But Kasich is our kryptonite in either case.

 

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)
31. assuming dems won't line up behind Sanders and that republicans will line up behind Trump
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 07:14 AM
Mar 2016

Despite the *fact* that Bernie draws republicans, not only in his home state but in matchups.

That's assuming a lot, especially considering how well Bernie does in matchup polls.

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