2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIf Sanders were going to outperform Clinton in the general, he would be doing so in the primary.
I've seen a lot of people claiming that Sanders would be more likely than Clinton to win the general election.
Almost exclusively, those people also believed that Sanders was going to win the primary, which should cast some doubt on their judgement, although some of them are now beginning to acknowledge that it is looking unlikely. But there's another, more important, reason not to accept that claim (actually, there are lots, but here's one: )
The narrative behind Bernie Sanders' claim to electability is that he can energise people, especially among the young, who want a more passionately left-wing government. He says that there are a lot of such people - enough to constitute a revolution - who have not voted in large numbers in the past, but would do for him.
The thing is that if this phenomenon were real, its effect would be more noticeable in the primary - where turnout is much lower, and left-wing views more widespread - than it will be in the general.
The primary electorate is more favourable to Sanders compared to Clinton than the general electorate will be. So if he has won the primary, it would not necessarily have proven that he were more electable (although it would be circumstantial evidence that he might be), but when she does, it will conclusively demonstrate that she is.
If Clinton can beat Sanders in the primary with a message tailored less specifically for the primary electorate, and more generally for the country as a whole, than his, it will prove that she is the candidate more likely to win the general.
litlbilly
(2,227 posts)arcane1
(38,613 posts)I agree.
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)Not in that he's winning them...but in the voting patterns of independents (40% of the electorate). Hillary tanks among independents, and that will depress turnout among more-liberal independents.
I couldn't disagree more. The primary electorate is comprised, in most states, largely of "party faithful" types and AA voters. The perfect Clinton demographics...
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)The ultimate confirmation bias.
zappaman
(20,606 posts)to the steps of the oligarchy!
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)Love the graphic.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)OH was a clear win and FL & NC were slaughters.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)NowSam
(1,252 posts)Hillary is getting roughly half of Dems supporting her which is maybe 25% of the voters in the general. That's not good. She needs lots of Independents and Republicans to vote for her too but you know what, they seem to prefer the arrogant a$$, Trump. Why? Because he is completely real about who and what he is. He knows he is a pompous ass and he plays it up to the hilt. Hillary's hands are tied by her sponsors so she can't give a real consistent answer on anything because she isn't free to do so. She is bought and paid for and beholden to her sponsors and not to the people. Just my opinion (And lots of other people's)
Tom Rinaldo
(22,913 posts)That has always been the case. Many Sanders supporters think it is partially because she is so much better known (especially among Democrats) with high profile experience in the public eye for so long. Whatever the reason there has been a constant undercurrent throughout the campaign so far of some voters saying they prefer Bernie on the issues but thinking they should back Hillary because they fear a Republican win in November.
You may feel Hillary would be the stronger candidate yourself, I don't, but my point is that I know there are many primary voters who like Bernie more but went with Hillary because of her "experience" etc. in anticipation of the Fall. My position is that fear has kept some from supporting Bernie or he would be doing better than he has in the primaries. Those voters would certainly back him against the Republicans.
My concern is that Hillary is weaker among Independents, and they are a huge voting block.
ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)And much more diplomatic about it than i. Foolish lemming behavior is how I would describe it.
dana_b
(11,546 posts)as well as the corporate backing & money like Hillary does, he'd be cleaning the floor with her.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511506463
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511506481
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1280146211
aikoaiko
(34,172 posts)HRC supporters are essentially party loyalists and will vote for who ever is the nominee, but they prefer HRC because she is a lot like Bill and Barack.
Bernie supporters are not necessarily party loyalists and a substantial portion may not show up.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)Whereas in the GE, not only do Indies vote, neither party can win without capturing a majority of Independants.
Uncle Joe
(58,367 posts)lines of Trump, Democratic turnout would be much greater.
Instead they did their best to black out, demean and distort his message and record because they have an inherent conflict of interest in regards to Bernie's proposed policies.
The General Election is based on the entire nation, the vast majority of primaries have been held in the conservative South and this helped Hillary in tailoring a less progressive message.
Thanks for the thread, Donald Ian Rankin.
fbc
(1,668 posts)How does a primary candidate's performance in states like South Carolina mean anything in a general election?
Donald Ian Rankin
(13,598 posts)States Clinton has won:
Iowa
Nevada
South Carolina
Alabama
American Samoa
Arkansas
Georgia
Massachusetts
Tennessee
Texas
Virginia
Louisiana
Mississippi
Northern Marianas
Florida
Illinois
Missouri
North Carolina
Ohio
State Sanders has won:
New Hampshire
Colorado
Minnesota
Oklahoma
Kansas
Nebraska
Maine
Michigan
How you classify states as red/blue/purple is debatable, but it's hard to argue that she hasn't won more states in all three categories. In particular, of the seven states politico lists as "swing" - Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Florida - Clinton has won 5, while Sanders has only won 2.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Mind you--he not only lost those states, he got obliterated in two of them and merely whupped in the third.
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)But that's not the case. Democrats are only 31% of the voters. The independents are over 40%. With Republicans making up the rest. So, about 70% are NOT Democrats. So, your argument makes no sense at all . . . just words on paper.
And EVERY poll shows Bernie doing much better than Clinton among Republicans and Independents. In Vermont he regularly got 20% of the Republican vote. Hillary can not do that.
Impedimentus
(898 posts)Your statement is devoid of demographic fact.
reformist2
(9,841 posts)DebDoo
(319 posts)Dislike is an understatement. Independents are independents for a reason - we like to make our own choices, and watching what the DNC has done to manipulate this primary angers us more than someone with democrat party loyalty can ever understand.
DefenseLawyer
(11,101 posts)Relatively speaking, a tiny percentage of people vote in party primaries. Even winning 100% of the Democrats who vote in the Mississippi primary, for example, would have absolute ZERO bearing on winning the general election. In every state, the percentage of people who participate in the primaries is too small to extrapolate much of anything about the general election.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)thesquanderer
(11,990 posts)...has nothing to do with how either of them would fare against Trump.
Different opponent.
Different pool of voters.
No relevance whatsoever.
corbettkroehler
(1,898 posts)Just you watch!
Jim Lane
(11,175 posts)I agree with the several comments upthread, that the single biggest flaw in your analysis is the two candidates' current respective strength among independents.
In addition, though, we have to take into account what's likely to happen in the campaign. Clinton supporters understand this perfectly well when they invoke the specter of Koch money funding ads attacking Sanders as a socialist. That's a valid point, but it works the other way, too. Sanders has not done a Trump-style attack on Clinton's integrity. Things will be different this fall. If the race is Trump versus Clinton, Trump won't be getting bogged down in issues about college tuition programs and Glass-Steagall and the like. He'll downplay policy and hit Clinton's weakest point, the widespread public mistrust of her. Expect to hear about emails and Clinton Foundation money and Bosnian sniper fire and on and on and on. Many of the people who've voted for Clinton in the primaries will be turned by this stuff and will vote against her in the general election.
Sanders, by contrast, doesn't offer Trump nearly so much fuel for his hate machine. It will be much harder for Trump to distract people from policy issues if he's facing Sanders.
marions ghost
(19,841 posts)"Sanders, by contrast, doesn't offer Trump nearly so much fuel for his hate machine. It will be much harder for Trump to distract people from policy issues if he's facing Sanders."
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
WHY don't people see this? In attracting the general public to the polls (esp the ones who don't tend to vote in primaries) --there is a stark contrast between Sanders and Trump.
Two clearly different directions. Both speaking to the "fed up" American voters.
With Hillary, not.
SunSeeker
(51,574 posts)Recursion
(56,582 posts)and he'd do the worst of the R's in the general.
Our two candidates' performances in the general are strongly dependent on whom the GOP nominates. Clinton is stronger against Trump or Rubio; Sanders is stronger against Cruz or Kasich. But Kasich is our kryptonite in either case.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)Despite the *fact* that Bernie draws republicans, not only in his home state but in matchups.
That's assuming a lot, especially considering how well Bernie does in matchup polls.