2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThere is NO "Hillary would still be better than Trump"
Why is this so impossible for Hillary fans to grasp?
FACT: Bernie won over 70% of Independents in Michigan. Nationally he leads Trump by double digits, EVEN WITH THE MEDIA BLACKOUT.
FACT: Independents don't get to vote in closed Primaries. A general election would be nothing like a primary in closed primary States.
FACT: Because of the media blackout, many people still don't know who Bernie is. They ALL know who Hillary is (as much as anyone can, since she changes that with the tides) and EVEN GIVEN THIS FACT, she's far from "walking away with it." She's losing major States to someone who isn't even known to a large swath of the electorate; which makes her an incredibly weak candidate. If Bernie were the nominee the press would be forced to pay attention to him, and he would experience a huge surge of supporters.
FACT: This is a year of deep anti-establishment sentiment. You cannot win against an anti-establishment candidate with the ultimate establishment candidate.
FACT:many Bernie supporters will not vote for Hillary in the general election, and no amount of personal attacks, shaming or scare tactics will change that. She is a right wing pro-establishment candidate; the right wing already has their candidate, and the establishment is extremely unpopular.
snagglepuss
(12,704 posts)Go Bernie GO
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)all they have to do is register as a dem primary voter.
The difficulty for many independents and new democrats is they often don't prepare by doing that a month or somewhat more in advance of the primary event coming to them.
If their interest is slow to develop or their loyalty to their unaffiliated status prevents them from following the rules for their state's primary they won't get to vote.
Lorien
(31,935 posts)many Americans don't spend much of any time online, other than to answer email and pay bills. Many people don't know that their States are closed primary States (I saw people being turned away at the polls that were unaware of this fact). They watch soaps or prime time entertainment, not cable "news" programs. As another DUer pointed out, the mainstream media loves Hillary in part because she would end net neutrality, which would benefit them hugely. But it's simply delusional, or wishful thinking, to believe that Hillary is our best bet against Trump.
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)maybe there's a lesson there...and I don't think it's that the media blacked out primary voting rules.
It seems a lot of blame could be scattered around and the places it lands will frequently be appropriate.
Doesn't the blame really fall on the state and local Dem party's black of information they didn't deem important enough to share?
Why didn't the state and local parties -buy- add time in appropriate viewing times to make known basic primary voting rules and deadlines? After all, the state and local parties really do know the rules because they are the ones that have helped establish them. And the local parties do know when Ridiculousness, the Kardashians, and America's Next Survivor are on the boob-tube.
I get that many people don't pay attention until the last moment. I get that challenge campaigns often fight to raise money and find time to campaign until the last weeks before a primary. And sometimes that means campaigning of one or more candidates doesn't get to a community until it's too late to register for a closed primary (think Florida)
That's unfortunate, but it's reality. I think that's a shame but I get it and I don't blame the media for not providing free public service announcements on primary voting rules and registration. I certainly don't blame the media anymore than I blame individuals, friends, networks of friends, and the political parties themselves.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)In CA you can vote in the Democratic primary as a declined to state
So far so good. The County... sent a note to all media on absentee votes, because there are dates you need to meet in order to get your new and shiny democratic ballot int he mail, if you do not, well you'd better wait until June 7 and go exchange it and vote that day.
Care to guess how many outlets ran that story locally?
I know of one..and that's it.
The TV should have had a story... on every channel, and for god sakes it was already mostly written.
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)Perhaps the most basic problem is one of getting turned on too late to important events.
Is that really only the fault of "the media blackout"? I think not, even though I know such late interest is a regular feature and should be anticipated by those involved in promoting elections...which seems like it could be a public service for the media to do, but which it doesn't seem required to do, anywhere in the US.
And media is hardly the only place to find information. There is always the internets. The tech savvy generation knows the internet contains everything. So individuals might think of going there.
On the internets there are Secretary of State websites that make these rules known
On the internets there are State party websites that make these rules known. And speaking of parties, why don't they buy ad-time or convince media to donate it, so that rules and deadlines to get registered get known?
And there is always social media. We're informed that younger generations spend much time and get most of their news from these places. That is great, except that the information that cycles among friends and twittermates is only as good as the information the friends and twitter mates run into. Maybe there is alo a role for friends to feel responsible for turning on friends to the rules of up-coming elections?
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)they run these announcements at the County News Center... but I pointed to a very concrete example. Ergo in my county it was technically up in TWO outlets, but media not telling people about these deadlines is quite common. And it has little to do with reporters but who owns the media and the fact that we have propaganda 24-7-365... the newsrooms are not conservative, the boardrooms are.
(By the way, this is to the great frustration of reporters and editors)
Political scientists know this about the American electorate. (why I do not intend to do interviews with candidates until we are six weeks out, otherwise we are all wasting our times, and has nothing to do with whether I like them or not), Americans do not pay attention until six weeks out.
In my humble opinion Americans have been trained not to care about politics. Ergo turnout is laughable Then the coverage is all about horse races... I have been following this race strictly from an analysis, numbers perspective, (Did I mention how much I hate math?) I have been accused of being for Sanders, (or Clinton away from DU)... hell, I had one person tell me I was for Trump (means I am doing my job right, seriously.If I am pissing everybody off... well I am doing it right.)
And I will be more than brutally honest. I do not care who your party nominates. I am a decline to state voter, I gave last to a campaign in 2008...and we try to remain as neutral as we can. But there is a major media bias. We even had a piece on it. It is quite scary actually, becuase I have seen a role reversal. These days I search foreign news to find out what is happening in the US... when I was growing up and Mexican media was controlled, we did the best we could to find about it with foreign (American) media.
http://reportingsandiego.com/2016/03/13/media-bias-and-public-perception/
And FAIR has a more recent piece on the NYT... and this is just a quick search of what is going on, and that is just NYT...
http://fair.org/home/nyt-works-hard-to-present-primary-race-as-more-boring-than-it-is/
As I said, I really could not care less who democrats nominate. I really give two shits about it. Trump is far more of a concern... but who the republican party (which is circling the drain) nominates will be examined for what it is. But what media is doing, both locally and nationally, the only thing that is put at risk is whatever remains of American democracy, which is on life support.
And yes, people accuse me... but I will push back on propaganda...
And I use a model of media that used to exist in the US before reagan, but went away particularly after the 1996 Telecom Act... I will say this, once the crisis is over, and the dust settles, history will not be kind to Bill Clinton.
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)nearly as much as I fear Trump supporters.
Trump can't do much without being enabled and back-stopped by Congress. Even with the executive stretched by Cheney to empower presidents to be national military leaders and by Obama to overcome intransigent obstruction of Congress, the president only gets to run rough-shod if Congress allows it.
Trump supporters electing representatives who would provide that empowerment scare me, because I believe they are willing to call for enabling Trump and electing reps and senators who would.
I don't fear Trump in the WH, but I fear my neighbors. They've elected Scott Walker, his legislative enablers and his state supreme court mafia.
Which is to say I don't fear Trump I fear a national movement by belligerent Know-Nothings. That movement has gone on for years in the Great Lakes states. At a national level, that movement gets multiple election cycles to bring about many Trump-like politicians. That's scary.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)will be to examine trumpism... which means way too many speeches to be read with a critical eye, starting with the campaign launch.
I have enough of a skeleton already of his ideology... but not enough for a good article. On a broader POV, Americans want a strong man... becuase they are frustrated. The rise of the strong man didi not shock me or surprise me. We as a nation, have been toying with fascism for over two decades.
dana_b
(11,546 posts)exactly and then there were cases in the open primaries, like Ohio, where the indys went for Kasich to punish Trump (weird but I almost understand).
I said it before and I will say it again - if Bernie had 1/4 of the backing of the DNC, the MSM and the name recognition of Clinton, he would be wiping the floor with her!!!
Lorien
(31,935 posts)At a toll booth plaza on the way to a Bernie rally last week the toll taker asked us "Who is this Bernie Sanders guy, and what is it about him that everyone likes so much??" It was impossible to give her much of an answer with a huge line of cars behind us, but suffice to say, many Americans have only just recently heard of him.
marions ghost
(19,841 posts)I am seeing that.
How could they know about Bernie?
The corporate media doesn't cover him.
oberliner
(58,724 posts)They will come out in force for Hillary. Having an opponent like Trump will be extra motivation.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)is because he's the subject of a media blackout. Subject him to a few months of rightwing attacks and his negatives will go up.
If Bernie Sanders was really such a game-changing candidate, he wouldn't be getting so soundly defeated by Hillary Clinton.
Most Bernie Sanders supporters are honest, principled people who know the stakes and will vote for Clinton because she's clearly a superior choice to Drumpf.
Every primary has sore losers who take their ball and go home. We had whiny, bitter PUMAs in 2008, I'm sure we'll have them in 2016. Threatening to be sore losers is not a legitimate argument to invalidate the results of elections.
And our side is a lot more united than the civil war going on inside the GOP.
bbrady42
(175 posts)I've been saying for a while now that Bernie supporters should be careful what they wish for in terms of the "media blackout." Do they really think the media is going to be fair once the start talking about Bernie?
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)firebrand80
(2,760 posts)I'm not sure where the OP is getting those numbers.
Also, "independents" that vote in a democratic primary aren't the same centrist, swing independents that we see in the GE anyway
LexVegas
(6,067 posts)rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)supporters. It's uphill but we will defeat the corrupt culture of Big Money in government.
LonePirate
(13,426 posts)rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)She said that Saddam Hussein was rebuilding his nuclear capabilities and was harboring al-qaeda. She often mispeaks.
Her actions to accept the benefits of Citizens United speak louder than her rhetoric about wanting to overturn it. Besides if she becomes president she won't need it anymore.
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)The peoples voice.
Additional Fact. The graphic in the op is the exact opposite of a fact. <- As polite as I could be.
Enrique
(27,461 posts)I'm pretty sure I disagree with it, but I can't figure out exactly what it means.
What does "there is no Hillary would be better than Trump". Of course Hillary would be better than Trump. So there is your "Hillary would be better than Trump", I just said it. So it's there. So I don't get what you're saying.
Lorien
(31,935 posts)but the facts don't support that assumption.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)gabeana
(3,166 posts)on you link,
of course Hillary is leading,
I don't get this doomsday scenarios
thanks for the link
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)I'm sure if one comes it will involve moving the goal posts.
ismnotwasm
(41,989 posts)I don't get it
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)Please. Sorry Sanders didn't win (and isn't going to win), but I assure you, Trump is not going to be President.
Lorien
(31,935 posts)you can't count on deep red States to choose Clinton OR Sanders over Trump.
MaggieD
(7,393 posts)We never win red states in the GE. Doesn't mean Trump will get elected anymore than Romney or McCain did.
Response to MaggieD (Reply #27)
Post removed
guillaumeb
(42,641 posts)And many states still actually have to vote. It would be nice if the corporate media would wait until the primaries are actually over. This "Clinton is the winner" meme is promoted by the media and the DNC to discourage "wasted votes" for Sanders.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Sanders there.
guillaumeb
(42,641 posts)I think the turnout in November will be critical. If Democratic voters are enthusiastic the GOP could lose the Senate and the Presidency. We all know this, but enthusiasm is the key.
Sanders is closest to my own politics, if more to the right than I am, and Clinton is much farther to the right than me, but I will vote for the Democratic nominee and work for that candidate.
And this presumes that Trump wins, rather than Cruz.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)We get focused on our own internal problems, but they're nothing compared to what's going on over there.
guillaumeb
(42,641 posts)The poison of racism and greed.
But how can any party that is opposed to the very concept of government expect to succeed on the long term? If the US had a real independent media the GOP inconsistencies and failures would be constantly covered.
Lorien
(31,935 posts)she's an extremely weak candidate.
guillaumeb
(42,641 posts)demwing
(16,916 posts)we should tell all Oathers to mind their own god damned business.
ebayfool
(3,411 posts)Lorien
(31,935 posts)who are they?
demwing
(16,916 posts)but really, I just made that word up.
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)No matter how the primaries turn out, my never used ignore box will be full.
pdsimdars
(6,007 posts)Which means they'll never "get it".
Maedhros
(10,007 posts)Hillary's supporters are against progressive policy, hence their rejection of Bernie Sanders. They don't look past that.
LonePirate
(13,426 posts)There are all sorts of progressive policies and degrees of progressiveness. There are plenty of progressive ideas out there that may not be progressive enough for you but are certainly progressive in their own right. Raising the minimum wage from $7.25 to $12 is a progressive policy stance. Raising it to $15 is simply a more progressive stance.
Also, repealing the Second Amendment is a highly progressive policy stance which I support that is to the left of Bernie. Does that mean Bernie is not a progressive for not supporting that?
grasswire
(50,130 posts)Where in hell did you read that?
LonePirate
(13,426 posts)grasswire
(50,130 posts)LonePirate
(13,426 posts)Beacool
(30,250 posts)Sanders may be attracting more Independents, but only a fool would equate Sanders with Trump. It's offensive to even consider that voting for one is the same as voting for the other. Trump is a vile man.
I have zero patience for people who feel that it's either Sanders or bust. That's a selfish and shortsighted view.
rhett o rick
(55,981 posts)Sanders can. Help us beat Trump.
onenote
(42,714 posts)Merely creating a photo and posting it on the Internet doesn't make what it says true.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/pres_general/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
CorkySt.Clair
(1,507 posts)We all know how that worked out for the country.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)Hillary will bring out the minorities in droves to stop Trump.
yardwork
(61,650 posts)Metric System
(6,048 posts)vote for Hillary just because their candidate isn't the nominee. The assumption behind the threat is that Hillary supporters would be OK with Bernie as the nominee. As we've seen in state after state, Democrats prefer Hillary over Bernie. So enough with the threats.
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)Hillary will beat trump hands down whether so called progressives can or will admit to....
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)still_one
(92,224 posts)What a bunch of sour grapes
MelSC
(256 posts)Count on it.
kennetha
(3,666 posts)Democrats don't have to win independents to win national elections, just hold our own. What we have to do is mobilize democrats and take our fair share of independents.
joshcryer
(62,276 posts)upaloopa
(11,417 posts)We need to get to work and win in November.
You're not helping anyone with that OP
still_one
(92,224 posts)beat Trump in a general election
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
This get so fu*king tiresome it is pathetic
Nothing of course should be taken for granted, and we still need to get out the vote. Very critical
upaloopa
(11,417 posts)still_one
(92,224 posts)election:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
If you don't want to vote for Hillary in the general election, then don't, but stop with the bullshit already
Blue_In_AK
(46,436 posts)Hillary will never, ever win in Alaska (and, yes, I know we're insignificant in the grand scheme of things), but Bernie might stand a chance. Our three little electoral votes might make a difference.
tokenlib
(4,186 posts)Once again they presume that Bernie's supporters will fall into line. They fail to grasp that so many are tired of enabling the Third Way/DLC/ New Dem establishment. They fail to grasp that people finally might respond to their usual cattle prod tactics and just say no. What is the price to discredit and fatally wound the Third Way establishment? Is possibly allowing Hillary to go down in flames in the hopes she will take her Third Way corporatists down with her worth the risks? The decision to fall in line is not so simple. At what point do we stop enabling these Wall Street corporate coddlers to nullify the interests of the many..to reinforce the power of the few???
We do not see Hillary and Bernie as so interchangeable...
so we will fight on....
it is understandable if people are unwilling/unable to understand why they are not liked/trusted etc
dana_b
(11,546 posts)over 130,000 posts and many declaring #BernieorBust
meh - but they don't care. As long as she BEATS Bernie, then they WIN!!
MadBadger
(24,089 posts)You've got polls? So Do I!
creeksneakers2
(7,473 posts)"cattle prod tactics."
rock
(13,218 posts)"Vote for Bernie, he can't beat Hillary, but he sure can beat Trump!"
themaguffin
(3,826 posts)Grow the fuck up.
MadBadger
(24,089 posts)MisterP
(23,730 posts)will let them out in August to command--safely behind the lines--Trump's inevitable defeat
onenote
(42,714 posts)The ones that are figments of his/her imagination?
BainsBane
(53,035 posts)Nobody is getting purged unless they're Trump-humping. . . In the meantime, let's all enjoy the fact that 2016 is shaping up to be a big year for progressives and a car wreck for conservatives.
PS. Fuck Donald Trump.
CTyankee
(63,912 posts)It is what it is.
Armstead
(47,803 posts)During a a post mortem on last night Democratic strategist Steve McMahon said something interesting. He he claims to be non-aligned but generally gives out conventional wisdom in favor of Clinton.
When asked why Bernie lost last night, McMahon said (slightly paraphrased) "Sanders has been largely unknown, but when he is able to spend time in a state in a one-on-one campaign, people get to know him and like him and he does well. But he was spread too thin with this round of primaries, and wasn't able to do that, and there wasn't a chance for voters to get to know him in those states."
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid