the republican establishment advocating a brokered convention are actually hoping to put Mitt Romney on the top of their ticket.

Do you think it can really happen?

None of them want Trump or Cruz, that's for sure. A lot of it depends on who picks the delegates in each state. If the insiders have control over that, they will surely pick delegates that won't stick with either Trump or Cruz after the first ballot.

I would think Jeb, Christie, and Kasich would have a tough time making their case, as they were in the primaries and got flushed down the toilet. Ryan and Romney don't have that liability at least.

Of course, if Trump has 50% plus 1, it becomes a moot point. He is on a trajectory to get very close to that, but he really could come up about 50 delegates short. I doubt that Cruz will be within 300 delegates, so he won't have much of a case. The big question is assuming they arrive at the convention with Trump at 1200, Cruz at 900 and everybody else under 400, would the party really throw all of that out and put somebody like Mittens in?

I think they would, but it will be very interesting.

Of an excuse to go with kasich since he is technically still in the running.

he will have no case to make.

I guess the idea of Rubio dropping out is to help give Kasich a chance to win something.

Maybe it was Thom Hartmann who said the repubs are discovering that the base is failing to get excited about Mitt. (ya think?)

Then the other orange man, Bohner, suddenly came out of his stupor and said he thinks Paul Ryan should do it. Ryan's spokesperson quickly declined.

convention, they can opt to vote for a candidate different than the front runner, but it must be someone who actually ran in the primary. I suspect that might be one reason all of the ones who quit "suspended their campaign" instead of just quitting.

I will say this, if the Trumpster gets votes just shy of the 1237 and the elites try to take the nomination from him, all hell will break lose!

Not because Trump said there will be riots, but because his supporters have been loyal all throughout the primary campaign, and they're not shrinking violets! If after they throw their fits and accomplish nothing, they'll either stay home, vote for a libertarian or vote for the Dem, but they'll NEVER let the pub candidate win.

The rules say they have to vote for the person they represent on the first ballot. After that, anything goes, I believe.

I don't see a good outcome for Republicans from a brokered convention.

Curiosity on seeing just HOW the republicans will save themselves from themselves. I am also curious to see where they stand once the dust settles. And by dust, I mean ashes.

If Trump is the nominee I don't think he's the next President. If he goes into the convention with
a delegate lead and the party leaders deny him the nomination I think it ends ugly for them with
a very fractured base. Is there a candidate that Trump would endorse? (How much would it cost?)

Last edited Thu Mar 17, 2016, 12:16 AM - Edit history (1)

I read somewhere that he needs to have at least 35% of latino vote to have a chance. I will be surprised if he has even TWO latino votes. Minorities hate him. And rightfully so. He put up quite a racist wall between him and the latino vote. I am cautiously confident that it will be enough to keep him from the WH.

Option 1 - Keep Trump. They may be conceding the presidency, but at least you won't depress your turnout for down ballot elections. Although two terms of Dubya leads me to believe that being qualified for the job matters quite a bit less than the Republican establishment may think, and it will be an election of one polarizing figure against the other and it comes down to turnout, voter suppression, and all the other games they like to play.

Option 2 - Dump Trump. Lose thirty to forty percent of Republican voters who will turn on the Republican establishment in the form of the nominee AND down ballot races. Guaranteed losses up and down the ticket.

I don't see how they dump the guy who gets the most votes and survive as a party.

The general public has a rather short memory. But I agree with your assessment. It will be interesting to see how they handle it.

There would be too many pissed off Trump voters. Trump may go third ticket.