we join GOTV forces the last weekend. My wife has been at "the office" the last 3 nights - I do weekend canvassing.

Trust me there are PROS at the Kaine office (experienced from around the country) and the volunteers are pouring in.

Seems like a bit of a head fake by Plouffe to me.

Obama and Biden were both here last week. The First Lady will be here on Friday.

and Arizona will be in play for Obama because of his huge advantage with women and Hispanics.

And, of those, "Romney advisers believe that only one, Wisconsin, is even theoretically winnable" by Romney.

I guess I could have read that myself...

NC is a day-by-day thing.

last week there was a poll that had Obama up by 6 in VA by NBC or CBS, one or the other.

frankly I am amazed we weren't tossed long ago. Our Governor candidate is down by double digits. I know he hasn't given up though as we still are seeing plenty of ads.

are doing a fantastic job in NC. GOTV is our only hope here. Unfortunately, the enthusiasm for Obama among NC college students is considerably less than four years ago and that might spell the difference.

what happen??? did I miss a new poll???

Ohio, NV, IA and NH assure that. Everything else is gravy.

just to be safe.

And then VA, FL in the next tier.

then NC

Hard to say what internal polls show.

The only two states that are really close are VA and CO. Everything else has at least a 60% chance of being carried by whomever it's leaning toward, but VA only has a 52.6% chance of going to Romney, and CO only has a 50.7% chance of going Romney (next-closest state is NV, 62.6% likelihood for Obama).

So I can see cirling the wagons, but not giving up on VA and CO, especially given how well their recent fundraising has gone.

WI is the next most winnable state. VA is close. Kaine could help there. CO is equally close.

Do we have a better shot at NC or FL considering the older population of FL? NC is just as close.

Once those four states are secured - statistically - Team Obama will go after WI, VA, FL and CO. Maybe NC.

I'm not privy to the internal polling, but I'd reason like this: We need a +6% to be secure - that's too big a lead for vote theft to work - a flip of 7% in the polls will raise questions.

Once the 270 (wagons) are safe, let the cavalry loose (extra states).

At least two of those states will go Obama, regardless.

There was nothing that "became clear". The author pulled that out of his ass. Let's see what was said:

And I agree with everything you say.

to update or delete.

I knew it was close but I thought Obama led by a few points. Not surprised about Virginia. I'm in Williamsburg but VA dies not feel like it will turn blue again. Sucks..

Read my post. Not only is the conclusion drawn here completely wrong, but later in the article it actually says that Dems think Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are in the bag.

Obama was heading towards landslide win with both states in his pocket, but NC was shaky.

Both are Republican leaning but Obama had a very good chance to win those states. He gave those up when he took a shit on himself 1st debate.

1st debate sealed those as losses to me. I just don't think we take those states anymore. Not necessary for 270 but still a blow if you wanted a landslide.

Surprised on VA. Thought demographics and high Dem support in DC corridor would be helpful but it's also possible debate fucked that up too.

If we win VA or FL, it's over. If Romney wins both, we are in for a nail biter.

He is here in Fairfax County Friday for a rally...

The Kaine operation alone is formidable. They are just laser focused on those other states.

It's a lie.

If the election is held today, I think Romney sweeps the South.

The south is where the needle moved the most after the first debate. It seemed people who were on the fence or leaning Romney jumped onto the bandwagon. And although Obama won last night, I don't think it was enough to knock those gains off.

I dont think Obama is giving up on these states, but I dont think you will see them make a serious effort to defend them. Florida especially is an extremely expensive state to campaign in. And Obama does not need Florida if he can win Ohio.

Apparently North vs South is still alive and well.

Just depends on Obama's own Internals. What are they telling him? Candidate Internals usually are more accurate than any other polls since they dictate $$$ spent and strategy going forward.

IF they really are focusing on just OH, Iowa, NH, and NV then it tells me there might be a serious concern in other states.

Lets not forget, yes we need Obama to win...but what we REALLY need is a mandate win so we can get stuff done next time around We really want to avoid a 271 Electoral Vote because that just leaves room for the GOP to say "you barely won, there's no mandate".

Ya I know winning is the name of the game for now and that should be job one, but we still need to have an effort in other places to try and get to 300 EV.