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Project New America: Obama leads in Nevada by 7
Wed, 10/17/2012
jon ralston
President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 7 percentage points in Nevada, according to a new survey by Democratic pollster Lisa Grove taken this week.
The poll, for Project New America, found Obama up 50-43, a few points larger than today's Rasmussen Reports poll (with a bizarre sample) that showed 50-47, Obama.
Republicans may discount the survey because of its Democratic trappings. But I have seen the instrument, the party/gender weighting looks right and Grove has done work in Nevada before.
The poll actually has a low Hispanic sample, which is very ominous for the GOP. My guess: Based on the Democratic registration surge and other data I have seen, a 6- or 7-point lead for the president makes sense -- at least now.
The poll, for Project New America, found Obama up 50-43, a few points larger than today's Rasmussen Reports poll (with a bizarre sample) that showed 50-47, Obama.
Republicans may discount the survey because of its Democratic trappings. But I have seen the instrument, the party/gender weighting looks right and Grove has done work in Nevada before.
The poll actually has a low Hispanic sample, which is very ominous for the GOP. My guess: Based on the Democratic registration surge and other data I have seen, a 6- or 7-point lead for the president makes sense -- at least now.
More:
http://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/new-poll-shows-obama-leads-nevada-7
http://www.ralstonreports.com/sites/default/files/PNA%20Nevada%20Memo%20%2810-17%29.pdf
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