OCTOBER 17, 2012

A new poll shows that with less than three weeks to go in the race for Florida’s 9th Congressional District, former congressman Alan Grayson (D-Orlando) now leads Todd Long (R-Winter Park) by 15 points: Grayson 56%, Long 41%.

Notably, Grayson enjoys an enormous 58% to 40% lead among voters who have already voted. (Two percent could not recall for which candidate they had voted.) This suggests that the Grayson campaign is benefiting from an “enthusiasm gap”; Grayson voters are more motivated to vote.

Among Hispanic voters, Grayson’s lead has now grown, to Grayson 66% vs. Long 27%. Hispanic voters are shunning Long because of Long’s promise to prohibit Spanish in the courts, schools and public hospitals, and to bring the racist Arizona Law to Central Florida.

Unusually among candidates this year, Grayson has moved to a solid favorable view with the voters, enjoying a net favorable rating of 14 points (53% favorable, 39% unfavorable). Among Hispanics, Grayson has an incredible net favorable rating of 44 points (67% favorable, 23% unfavorable). In contrast, reports of Todd Long’s abusive misconduct clearly have taken their toll: Long has a net favorable rating of zero.

Notably, 24.6% of the interviews for this poll were conducted in Spanish, according to the respondent’s preference. Certain other polls in this race were conducted in English only, yielding highly unreliable and inaccurate results.

The poll was conducted on Oct. 11-12, 2012, among likely FL-9 voters. There were 487 respondents, and the margin of error was 4.5%. Among the respondents, 43% were Democrats, and 28% were Republicans, reflecting the registration in the district. The poll was conducted by Gravis Marketing, a Central Florida polling firm.