Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 08:07 PM Mar 2016

ElectionProjection: Hillary in a landslide over Trump by 138 electoral votes.

ELECTORAL VOTES
Hillary Clinton* 338
Donald Trump* 200
Clinton +138

POPULAR VOTE
Hillary Clinton* 52.6%
Donald Trump* 46.4%
Clinton +6.2%



http://www.electionprojection.com/presidential-elections.php

Anyone who claims Trump is going to easily beat Hillary is either clueless or lying.

44 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
ElectionProjection: Hillary in a landslide over Trump by 138 electoral votes. (Original Post) DCBob Mar 2016 OP
New Mexico should be dark blue, and Colorado should be at least pale blue. DavidDvorkin Mar 2016 #1
Yeah, I think so too. DCBob Mar 2016 #6
+1 on Colorado big_dog Mar 2016 #17
And if you're giving NC TX should be pale pink. joshcryer Mar 2016 #24
Nope ChairmanAgnostic Mar 2016 #2
Yep DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #16
There are a lot of weak dem and mod dem states woolldog Mar 2016 #3
True but she has alot wiggle room. DCBob Mar 2016 #9
The Problem with a contested convention.. speaktruthtopower Mar 2016 #4
That is a good point. DCBob Mar 2016 #5
She'll win Arkansas ucrdem Mar 2016 #7
Maybe but Arkansas has gone pretty red in most recent elections. DCBob Mar 2016 #8
They never let Gore forget he lost TN in 2000 ucrdem Mar 2016 #10
Good point.. DCBob Mar 2016 #12
Gore lost in TN because Karl Rove targeted that state to embarrass Gore Samantha Mar 2016 #22
Oh for God's sake ibegurpard Mar 2016 #19
How is Minnesota only mod blue? LW1977 Mar 2016 #11
I believe he is basing it on polling and past elections. DCBob Mar 2016 #13
I think it will be much closer than doc03 Mar 2016 #14
I know Republicans who will vote for Hillary. DCBob Mar 2016 #18
I wouldn't bet the farm on that if i were you. Trump has defied all logic since he doc03 Mar 2016 #20
The American electorate is stupid.. but not that stupid. DCBob Mar 2016 #36
FL, OH and PA tk2kewl Mar 2016 #15
Have to say NC shouldn't be rated the same as Ohio, PA and FL dsc Mar 2016 #21
Bernie polls better and has much better favorable ratings jfern Mar 2016 #23
NC could easily go pink Hiraeth Mar 2016 #25
Of note is Scott Elliott from Election Projection is a conservative. joshcryer Mar 2016 #26
He must not be too open about that. DCBob Mar 2016 #28
He has a Stop-Trump-o-Meter: joshcryer Mar 2016 #30
Yeah. He appears to be a straight shooter despite his personal politics. DCBob Mar 2016 #31
I see Texas coming in to play. joshcryer Mar 2016 #33
That would be lovely! DCBob Mar 2016 #34
K & R Iliyah Mar 2016 #27
Mahalo DCBob! Cha Mar 2016 #29
Hi Cha! DCBob Mar 2016 #32
She will win easily workinclasszero Mar 2016 #35
I think so too. DCBob Mar 2016 #40
Looking good but way too early to count votes. This projection gives the GOP PTB reason to ditch Persondem Mar 2016 #37
Well, the Bernie team is using the argument that he is only one that can beat Trump. DCBob Mar 2016 #38
I agree completely. nt Persondem Mar 2016 #39
I think it may be bigger in the end as all the people who have been marginalized beachbumbob Mar 2016 #41
Hillary by 138. Works for me. oasis Mar 2016 #42
NM should be a dark blue, AZ should be a light pink. I don't think Trump will win, either. AgadorSparticus Mar 2016 #43
Agreed. DCBob Mar 2016 #44

DavidDvorkin

(19,481 posts)
1. New Mexico should be dark blue, and Colorado should be at least pale blue.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 08:16 PM
Mar 2016

Last edited Thu Mar 17, 2016, 09:01 PM - Edit history (1)

 

woolldog

(8,791 posts)
3. There are a lot of weak dem and mod dem states
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 08:22 PM
Mar 2016

than solid Dem. A lot of GOP states are solid GOP.

Dems have a lot more states to defend. I think HRC can do it tho.

speaktruthtopower

(800 posts)
4. The Problem with a contested convention..
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 08:25 PM
Mar 2016

if Trump doesn't get it you could have a completely unexpected opponent after months of preparing for Trump.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
8. Maybe but Arkansas has gone pretty red in most recent elections.
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 08:37 PM
Mar 2016

It would be nice but we dont need it.

ucrdem

(15,512 posts)
10. They never let Gore forget he lost TN in 2000
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 08:43 PM
Mar 2016

and for that reason I think it's worth the effort. I've noticed that when the Clintons really think they need a win, they call in favors and get it. And AK would probably not be that hard for them.

p.s. meaning they get their surrogates out to beat the drum.

Anyway this is interesting

Samantha

(9,314 posts)
22. Gore lost in TN because Karl Rove targeted that state to embarrass Gore
Fri Mar 18, 2016, 01:13 AM
Mar 2016

Tennessee was a mini-Florida with much of the same type of election tampering going on. It was unbelievable.

Sam

doc03

(35,362 posts)
14. I think it will be much closer than
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 09:20 PM
Mar 2016

that. Trump is not going to be easy to beat. I know Democrats that are going to vote Trump.
Trade
Guns
Coal
Imigrants

doc03

(35,362 posts)
20. I wouldn't bet the farm on that if i were you. Trump has defied all logic since he
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 11:02 PM
Mar 2016

started, don't underestimate him.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
36. The American electorate is stupid.. but not that stupid.
Fri Mar 18, 2016, 08:54 AM
Mar 2016

That I will bet the farm on. Besides the farm wont be worth a dime if Trump somehow wins.

dsc

(52,166 posts)
21. Have to say NC shouldn't be rated the same as Ohio, PA and FL
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 11:54 PM
Mar 2016

meaning I think we are at least pink. I also think Colorado is likely light blue instead of pink.

jfern

(5,204 posts)
23. Bernie polls better and has much better favorable ratings
Fri Mar 18, 2016, 01:17 AM
Mar 2016

So it's safer with Bernie as the nominee

joshcryer

(62,276 posts)
26. Of note is Scott Elliott from Election Projection is a conservative.
Fri Mar 18, 2016, 01:46 AM
Mar 2016

And he backs the Stop Trump movement openly and publicly.

I think he, like a good 30% of conservative (moderate, pragmatic) Republicans won't vote for him.

joshcryer

(62,276 posts)
30. He has a Stop-Trump-o-Meter:
Fri Mar 18, 2016, 05:17 AM
Mar 2016

Read the blog: http://www.electionprojection.com/stop-trump-o-meter/

His About Me doesn't mention his conservatism explicitly (though just reading it is pretty clear): http://www.electionprojection.com/blogging-caesar/


But his Twitter does: https://twitter.com/bloggingcaesar

Not saying there's anything wrong with linking him here, he does projections like 538 (attempts to be neutral), just like electoral-vote.com (very liberal, very pro-Dem), and he called 2012 for Obama, while the Republicans were deskewing polls. He's just a conservative projector which appeals to the right wing.

I just think it's fascinating that he, a conservative, is terrified of Trump getting the nomination. Trump has a very low ceiling, which I think is like 40%, he's so screwed.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
31. Yeah. He appears to be a straight shooter despite his personal politics.
Fri Mar 18, 2016, 08:14 AM
Mar 2016

His projection is same as mine with the exception of Colorado.

 

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)
35. She will win easily
Fri Mar 18, 2016, 08:35 AM
Mar 2016

Trump is a dangerous unprincipled demagogue.

When the facts about this asshole are made clear in the fall only teabaggers will be voting for him

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
40. I think so too.
Fri Mar 18, 2016, 09:43 PM
Mar 2016

Trump has definitely defied all logic so far but the general is much different animal than the GOP primary.

Persondem

(1,936 posts)
37. Looking good but way too early to count votes. This projection gives the GOP PTB reason to ditch
Fri Mar 18, 2016, 08:56 AM
Mar 2016

Trump. Of course that would likely cause him to go rogue, run independent, and make it an even bigger Dem win.

I am hoping that TX can lose the dark red. With Trump bringing out the opposition Latino vote, the state could well tilt leftward enough to make such a difference.

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
38. Well, the Bernie team is using the argument that he is only one that can beat Trump.
Fri Mar 18, 2016, 08:58 AM
Mar 2016

This demonstrates that is a false narrative.

 

beachbumbob

(9,263 posts)
41. I think it may be bigger in the end as all the people who have been marginalized
Fri Mar 18, 2016, 11:20 PM
Mar 2016

By trump...by conservatives get off their butts and vote...

Latest Discussions»Retired Forums»2016 Postmortem»ElectionProjection: Hill...