they said that Obama had a better second day of polling than the first, so they may still be doing some polling.

came right over to see some breakdown, when will these be released? tomorrow?

Official Numbers in Iowa seem almost insurmountable for Romney.

Yet...I am getting nervous about that state.

By that I mean don't take anything for granted. The GOP vote/election stealing machine is poised to strike.

Or he'll lose the election. He can win the election without Ohio if he takes:

CO, WI, MI, MN, NH, NM, NV and Iowa. But he needs both those states.

The states Gore and Kerry both won amount to 242 electoral votes. Add in Florida's 29, and he's up to 271.

Are your calculations based on the new Electoral Vote numbers? Because the Electoral Votes of some of the states have changed since 2008.

There has been greater population growth in the red states than there has been in the blue states (with some exceptions).

But while some of the states that Obama may win this year have gained extra Electoral Votes (eg. Nevada), some like Texas, have gained more.

So when doing Electoral College calculations, it is important to specify whether they are based on the 2012 numbers, or the 2008 numbers.

By comparison, the Gore/Kerry states used to be worth 248 electoral votes, and Florida used to be worth 27. Now they are 242 and 29, respectively.

While the red states gained.

So in a close election, that can make a difference.

TEXAS has gained a number of electoral votes in recent years while CALIFORNIA has remained at 55.

I don't know how you guys hang on every single one

another glance at the state of the race, albeit some better representations of what's going on than others.

So if the new numbers are similar we are in good shape.

If he's already back to where he was then, he's in good shape.

A lot of those gains came from disappointed Republicans and right leaning indies.

Romney's not losing those now after the 1st debate. They smell blood and now believe they can win.

This is why the 1st debate was damaging for Obama. Romney firmed up his support and it's unlikely to come down. We should not be expecting significant reversals in the polls.

PPP is saying they aren't seeing much of a debate bump for Obama tonight, and Nate Silver seems cautious in not expecting Obama to go much higher than a (+2) National lead.

As Jeff Greenfield said today, although Obama performed well in the 2nd debate, the 1st debate may still remain the most important because it allowed Romney to increase his level of support and present him as the agent of change in this election and an alternative to Obama.

We may also not be able to get back some of the women voters who Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg said went to Romney after the first debate.

We are still looking at a tighter race than we had prior to the first debate.

So that's why hard work and taking nothing for granted must be the order of the day.

The 1st debate was just horrendous, not only from a performance standpoint but for what it allowed Romney to do, which was basically erase the entire summer and September.

Smart take from Steve Singiser from Kos on this:

Time to concede now and save everyone a lot of trouble.



That was sarcasm, by the way.

I thought at the time what it would serve to do would be pull the leaners to him. I underestimated how many there were, but I think you are right that they were his votes to have all along and are not going back.

I HOPE we continue to see some drawback toward the president, but I also don't think his great performance will be as impactful as the first debate was for Romney.

Either reveal the results or don't. It's one thing to say, "Hey, we have polls at XX:YY AM tomorrow. Check it out!". The way PPP is doing this is sensationalism at best.

I have come to absolutely despise twitter in terms of political discourse. It's incredibly destructive. It takes soundbite culture to a new extreme. It's an ideal outlet for lazy politicians (and useless pundits) in this era. Most of them do nothing anyways.

Many of their Tweets are unprofessional, and they get very upset if you question their results and will often block people who do.

annoying than the wingnuts... don't blame them.

but there's so much polling going on now that it's difficult to even know who's professional and who's a biased or partisan hack. How do you separate the wheat from the chaff?

Much of it corresponds with the rise of the internet as a news source and the media's need to push the horse race narrative. But part of it is also this obvious and evident need for so many of us to get something to quantitatively assess how our side is doing. I don't remember any electoral vote projection sites in '00, but the internet, at least in terms of political coverage was really in its infancy. I know electoral-vote.com and a few others were around in '04. I don't remember when RCP got its start. And then of course, there was Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight, four years ago.

if they haven't changed (or, say, expanded by just one point), then that's still reason to be cautiously optimistic.

its the status quo, and since obama has been up in all those polls, it means he is still up.

The fact that it mentions there's been no swing back towards Obama suggests that Romney's boost is alive and well. Reading between the lines, an Obama lead of 1 - 3% would be a fantastic result in these polls.