2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum"Is the South Distorting National Polling?" by Michael Tomasky at the Daily Beast
Is the South Distorting National Polling?by Michael Tomasky at the Daily Beast
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/10/17/is-the-south-distorting-national-polling.html
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Via Markos,I see this interesting regional cross-tab in the Gallup daily tracking, where Obama is down six points today: In the East, it's Obama +4. The Midwest, Obama +4. The West, Obama +6. And the South, Romney +22.
Any chance that's skewing the Gallup national number? Almost has to be, doesn't it? It's the limitation of national polls at this point, and I said this four years ago when Obama led them. It doesn't matter a whit how much Romney wins the Confederacy by (well, most of the Confederacy). Most of those states are ceded to him.
This isn't to gainsay the state polls showing it tight, like the new Wisconsin survey, which is troubling indeed from the Obama perspective. If he loses that state, he has big problems. Obviously, that polling was done before this debate. We'll start to see by the weekend whether this debate had any impact.
Anyway. The South. Those of you who go back to the Guardian days with me remember how I used to rant against the South. Haven't really made a habit of that here yet. But my feelings haven't changed. I still think we made a mistake taking them back. The only meaningful contribution they make is college football, and I'm sure that over time the USA and the CSA could have coexisted amicably enough that our teams could play each other with minimal border issues. What, Faulkner, you say? Bosh. He'd have moved to the USA!
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Firebirds01
(576 posts)I would have hanged every confederate officer. I would have punished the south so much that they would think of hell as a relief. Its a good thing I wasnt alive then. I had a relative (few generations back) take a Confederate bullet for this country. I have no (zero) tolerance for the confederacy, the confederate flag, or any other rebellious aspect of the south. I disagree with you on college football. They see their success in the BCS as a validation of Dixie secession and hating non-protestant whites.
Id write more but Ive been drinking and my thoughts would get me banned.
Mind your Uncle Sam, Johnny Reb. The Union Forever.
ComplimentarySwine
(515 posts)I imagine that a lot in the South wish that the Union hadn't taken them back, especially via the use of force.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)There is way too much attention placed on national polling. Its meaningless when we have a plethora of state polls.
WCGreen
(45,558 posts)But look at California where only 54% are coming in for Obama and then look at Texas where 60% are moving toward Romney...
What's keeping it close are the ten or so battle ground states.
Ford_Prefect
(7,901 posts)You are in danger of sounding like the guys I know whose image of southern states relies on re-runs of The Dukes of Hazzard, NASCAR racing, beer commercials and fishing shows. To guys like that southern voters are "Those People". Do us all a favor and get your head out of your butt.
It has always been a mistake to assume the character of all the people here is demonstrated entirely by those in power. There are many who would prefer other choices than the ones at the top of the ticket. Many who are tired of being told only to trust those who they go to church with. We have a news media system here that tends to paint the world as an advert for Wonder Bread. That does not mean that we don't know the difference between a horse and a Jackass.
The polls I read suggest that Mitt is going down and that he keeps digging the hole a little deeper each week. The real concern I have is that the polls won't matter when the votes are being counted. In a number of states very effective programs are underway to keep people from voting, to erroneously suggest that they don't have the right to vote, to erase their registration or to falsify it. In Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida and elsewhere there is real evidence that the vote may be flipped in the counting process. Those are situations that are not being discussed and certainly aren't reflected in any polling.