Newsflash for Mitt: The recovery’s not so sluggish

It's understandable that Romney's painting a grim picture of the economy, but the numbers don't quite bear him out

BY JARED BERNSTEIN, ON THE ECONOMY

The challenger will always try to talk down the economy. Even back in 1996, when jobs, growth, and even middle-class incomes were really taking off, candidate Bob Dole was trying to convince everyone that things were bad and getting worse.

It is, of course, a much closer call now, but still, I doubt that Gov. Romney’s assault on the recovery in last night’s debate resonated as much as he’d like it to. And I think Greg Sargent is right here: team Obama should continue to push back on this point, particularly regarding housing, which didn’t come up at all last night.

All three major home price indices are up and the 30-year mortgage rate is at an all-time low. This combination of home price appreciation and low rates has allowed more homeowners to refinance, lowering average annual mortgage payments by around $2,200. Housing starts got a big pop this AM, hitting their strongest stride since 2008, and while the monthly data are volatile, there are signs that the inventory overhang in housing is much diminished.

Last month, auto sales hit a four year high, with annualized sales just below 15 million, the highest sales count March 2008. Since GM and Chrysler have emerged from their government-structured bankruptcy, the industry’s added almost 250,000 jobs.

Unemployment, 10% three years ago, is 7.8%–still too high, but moving in the right direction. Mitt’s got a point re the depressed labor force participation rate, but he’s all stuff and malarkey if he really thinks that explains all, or even half, of the progress on unemployment. Employment growth accelerated notably in the third quarter of the year relative to the second (see first figure here). Still, despite the momentum, the jobless rate is too high to boost workers’ bargaining power and you can see that in paychecks.

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http://www.salon.com/2012/10/17/newsflash_for_mitt_the_recoverys_not_so_sluggish/