Do we care what the other side thinks about polling and swing states?

** I'm not sure I know how to translate or filter what they write anyway. I read earlier in the day that Romney feels some confidence about Iowa from their side.

Obama’s New Firewall: Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada
By Jim Geraghty
October 17, 2012 5:05 P.M.

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/330793/obamas-new-firewall-ohio-iowa-new-hampshire-and-nevada


Major Garrett, writing in National Journal:

What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.

It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling.

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Chalk one up for Suffolk University Political Research Center’s David Paleologos, which said they would stop polling North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida last week.

Fascinatingly, the description of Plouffe’s comments puts New Hampshire in the “firewall” pile, when the last three polls have Romney up by 4 (ARG) a tie (Suffolk) and Obama ahead by 1 (Rasmussen).

UPDATE: The Obama campaign is “absolutely not” giving up on those states, traveling press secretary Jen Psaki said today

========= here's another take on Iowa.

Hints of an Obama Edge In Iowa

Tiny Iowa is worth just six electoral votes, but it’s surprisingly important to the electoral math. Iowa holds the keys to Colorado: if Obama lost Iowa, then a victory in Colorado wouldn’t get him over the top without winning another tipping point state, like Ohio or Virginia. If Obama lost Wisconsin but won Ohio, a win in Iowa (as well as Nevada and New Hampshire) could make up for lost ground. And victory in Iowa would be enough to reelect Obama if he also won Ohio and Wisconsin.

Unfortunately, the Hawkeye State hasn’t received much attention from the pollsters, making it harder to judge than most states. Back in the spring, NBC moved Iowa to “Lean Romney” based on insider sources, but there weren’t enough polls to confirm whether Romney held an advantage. The state's history suggested that Obama might have an edge in a close race, but demographics pointed toward possible vulnerability for the president. By the summer, Iowa was back in the toss-up column and NBC moved Iowa to “Lean Obama” after the DNC. But the polls didn’t necessarily back up that determination, either. In September, a simple average showed Iowa near the national average, although a closer look hinted at a larger Obama advantage commensurate with his lead in Nevada or Ohio.