My prediction is that President Obama will get a 4 to 6 point bump from the debate the other night. At first I thought the result was not so bad for RMoney but after watching the news for a day I changed my mind. He really did a lot to piss off women voters in that debate. The Libya debacle was also pretty devastating and will only be hammered more if he brings it up Monday.

first started posting here regularly, people raved about Nate and his numbers (how accurate he was last time). However, after the first debate he jumped in the middle so fast your head would spin. Oh and he claimed Romney would only get a 2 point bump and that it was already subsiding. Not...Romney is still up. Then last night he was on tv admitting that Romney will probably keep those people.

So you're right, you shouldn't rely on him. He's doing what everyone else is... trying to use math and other science-y stuff to calculate probabilities. He's probably adding some guess work, and the best you can hope for is that he's completely unbiased in his process. But he can still be completely wrong at any given time. Furthermore, it seems he's relying on the pollsters for a lot of his numbers, and we know not all of them are unbiased.

Oh crap, I haven't checked the 538 page this hour! BRB!

Especially considering how far he was up a month ago. I realize a day or week are a lifetime at this point in the campaign, but still. I'm far too nervous for comfort.

up and up and up!

plus a Senate and House that's willing to work with him.