doesn't give early vote count based on their poll 'have you already voted' 'if so, for who?' I have to wonder why they don't?

And you cannot even get their crosstabs without paying for them. Scott Rasmussen must be raking in the big bucks from desperate conservatives. Rasmussen is showing that Mitt still is not ahead. Ohio looks good for Obama. Mitt would need to be way ahead in current polling to win Ohio.

Only a one point advantage His numbers make no fucking sense voting is going on right now in Ohio and democrats are LEADING in early voting one point from Ras means he might be leading by 3 or 4 points

But keep in mind that the swing states haven't changed as much as the rest of the country after the first debate. There's so much activity there, the debates are only a small part of the political media storm.

The fact that there hasn't been any movement away from Obama (in a state where other recent polls suggest Ras has always been on the low side of Obama's lead) is a very positive sign in this vital state.

Romney has to win around 51.5% of remaining voters in that state.

As for the current polls, I think any reputable polling firm accounts for the early voting so those people hoping to add on to the President's lead in any current poll by saying "ya but we also have the early voters who already voted for us" are outta luck

I have been touch with some people (can't say who, but WH people, you'll have to take my word on this), who say they have by no means given up on either VA or FL, and very much expect (as of 10/17) to pull both states out.

Now we're waiting for the debate bump and for the President's lead to widen

Are they ever correct? I don't care if they show Obama ahead, like right now, or behind, they are an extremely shitty polling firm.

Ras is always a few points off, almost always favoring the Republican.

they were only going to let 10,000 in but ended up letting 14,000 in but from what I heard walking back to the car many, many, many, more were turned away We got Ohio but we still need boots on the ground here If you live in a solid red states and you are able to come help us canvass or go online to barackobama.com click on volunteer, pick make calls, choose Ohio, and get to work help us we need you

i based it on an expected voting total of 5.7M.

some reports of Ohio say 20% have early voted, but more recent reports suggest its more like 10% so I put the early voting mark at 15% as a compromise. of that I gave 57% to Obama and 38% to Romney (most recent data of early vote).

so with 85% of the vote yet to be cast I came up with Romney basically needing 51.5% or so (maybe just a smidgen under) to pull out the win in that state.

if early voting was indeed just 10% (which I think is a more realistic number) then Romney would need to break the 50% barrier and if he does that he wins. (of course all this is assuming 3rd party doesn't pick up more than 1.5% of the vote).

It looks like Romney hasn't been able to overtake Obama in OHIO (although Obama is still not back up to the level of support he had before the first debate).

What's unfortunate/odd is that Romney went up a point in their National Tracking Poll today.