2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumAfter Tuesday Hillary will "realistically" be the nominee
Last edited Sat Mar 19, 2016, 04:00 AM - Edit history (1)
If the polls hold up (which they likely will) she will win by a 20-30 point margin, securing her nomination for the Democratic presidential candidate. After AZ and if she does indeed win by that big of a margin Sanders' chances are realistically over. Then we can finally begin campaign for the American people and against fascism and hate from Herr Trump.
RobertEarl
(13,685 posts)The convention will be official and gawd damn lets hope it's Bernie! Keep working for Bernie!!
Solid Snake1
(95 posts)But one must be realistic, if the above mentioned vote happens and favors Clinton by over 20 points there is no realistic way for Sanders to come back. He would literally need to win every single remaining by 70-30 margins, and in NY and CA alone thats not going to happen, let alone winning by 2 a point margin.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)Your opinions on what I "must" do is frankly irrelevant to what I will do.
Solid Snake1
(95 posts)No one is saying you can't. But don't act all surprised when Hillary is secures the nomination at the convention.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)It will not affect how I vote in the general.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)I'm bored with this type if stuff. I wonder if I put the words 'cant win' in my trashcan if I can stop seeing these threads. Or I can just trash them as they come up. Just... We should stop replying.
JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)thesquanderer
(12,018 posts)technically, not true.
First, the current figure is 58-42. Arizona has 75 delegates. Even if Hillary wins them by a 60-40 margin, Bernie falls behind by only 15 delegates, which is not enough to shift 58-42 to 70-30.
Second, whatever the figure actually its, he does not "literally need to win every single remaining" contest by that margin, since (a) a bigger win in one state means he can afford a smaller one in another state of the same size, and (b) a bigger win in a state with more delegates can more than offset poorer showings in states with fewer delegates.
Do I think Bernie can pull this off? Not likely. But your numbers are off.
Viva_La_Revolution
(28,791 posts)Not till the convention puppy
Solid Snake1
(95 posts)Call me a noob I'm really not. But thats beside the point.
Response to Solid Snake1 (Reply #4)
PonyUp This message was self-deleted by its author.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)You may also want to look up the word "securing".
You go on though. One reason I've contributed to DU all these years is it's the absolute best fun you can have on the internet while fully clothed.
You go on with your hard, snaky self... and keep what's important firmly in hand. Never worry; the back and forth only serves to intensify the satisfaction you'll feel when you finally cross the finish line and experience that happy ending.
Oh, and keep a box of Kleenex handy.
Solid Snake1
(95 posts)Care to explain how Bernie will secure 60% in every single remaining state? You do realize he needs at least that much to overtake Hillary in delegates right? And NY alone is looking to be a slaughter in favor of Hillary.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)and cross that finish line to a happy ending.
And I forgot something: Get the Kleenex that's infused with hand lotion. Soothing... mmmmm. You'll need it.
angstlessk
(11,862 posts)What really matters is the GE...will she win?
Bernie would win hands down, but Hillary? One can only hope!
ebayfool
(3,411 posts)That whoosh was the sound of somethin' flying straight over somebody's head!
Viva_La_Revolution
(28,791 posts)Show em how we do it old school CP!
kath
(10,565 posts)I see what you did there.
closeupready
(29,503 posts)Response to Solid Snake1 (Original post)
Cheese Sandwich This message was self-deleted by its author.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)I think that maybe there are just so many of them, I am gonna stop reading any of them.
If we wanna focus on the general, we can. I'm gonna give it a rest on the it's all over stuff. It ends when it ends and we know what we know. Let them keep fighting and we will too.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)bravenak
(34,648 posts)cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)Tomorrow's another day. It's gonna be beautiful, sunny, and about 65 degrees. I'm at 7,000 feet so I'm above the smog of L.A. WAY above it.
There are so many stars in my sky that it looks green sometimes. Looking at the sky through binoculars has made childhood friends who come to visit get all misty and shit. More stars up there than they've ever imagined, or been able to see from down at sea level in So. Cal.
You're cool and what makes you coolest is you're a challenge. I can never win. That's what makes interacting with you even more fun.
Don't hate me... I bet I'm more like you than you could ever know.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)You are in my hometown so I cant hate you. Unless you hate my Lakers....
I bet we do have a bunch in common. And you ain't no slouch in the won't let a mf win department, yourself. Respect.
cherokeeprogressive
(24,853 posts)Me, I'm Dodger fan first and foremost though. Baseball was my game. Batted almost .400 in high school until I smoked my first blunt (we didn't call them "blunts" then) and it was all downhill from there.
Props.
bravenak
(34,648 posts)I was BORN on Kareem and Magic.
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)I'll be trashing GDP sometime tomorrow, myself. Keeping it up tonight just 'cause I got fuck-else to do, i guess.
...Shit, it's late on a Friday night and I got fuck-else to do than read shit like this. I gotta start sniffing glue or some other socially-acceptable activity.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Solid Snake1
(95 posts)perhaps "officially" was a bad choice of words. She will realistically be the future nominee.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)As currently written, the title is both inaccurate and what we call "flamebait".
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)Anyway in my view it was March 15, and I hope things go well for her on Tuesday, but I suspect there will be just enough good news for Bernie to justify limping to the next contest, and on and on. I think we all know that it would far better if he suspended his campaign and hit the road as a surrogate, but we also know that as long as he keeps getting his stocking filled by anonymous elves he won't. So we're more or less stuck with him.
Zira
(1,054 posts)She can't be pres. Upwards of 30% of the Bernie supporters are polling that they won't cross over and vote for Hillary.
We're losing the under 30's and the left leaning dems over this as well as the general election.
The Republicans understand how Trump can't win because their own Republicans have over 30% that won't vote for him no matter what.
They are talking non stop about the RNC picking their own candidate to run that isn't even in the primaries. I'll google the word they are using for it.
The DNC needs to do the same or lose the election. having over 50% of Dems vote for Hillary while 30% refuse means it is not possible for a Democratic candidate to win the presidency. They have to pull that war hawk out or lose.
I'll go find the word for it...
"Contested Convention" is the word. It's how the RNC is talking about replacing Trump because he divides the party and can't get elected because 30% of the party refuses to vote for him. The stories have been on the Huffington post for this all week.
Solid Snake1
(95 posts)There is no way 30% will vote for Trump. I hear this stuff every election.
djean111
(14,255 posts)What I am hearing from the newly energized - by Bernie - is that they won't bother making a choice between the two, because neither one means to do well by them or this country. The boogeyman bromide does not work there.
And all the dismissive and dripping with scorn declarations of say hello to president whoever are just pointless blathering. They don't care what you think, and you don't care what they think, really. You just feel entitled to tell them what to do.
They are the ones who would have to die in a stupid egotistical war, they are the ones who have to pay high college costs, crushing interest on the loans, and then find out that between the TPP and the TTIP, among other "trade" treaties, there is no job go to anyway. They inherit the land and water poisoned by fracking so the 1% could extract profits. That's just a start.
So I wouldn't be too smug. There won't be any "falling obediently in line" this time - because the new voters were never in line in the first damned place.
corkhead
(6,119 posts)If you are correct then voters will have a choice between yet another establishment, status-quo candidate - or flipping over the table.
"Realistically", given Madame Secretary's unfavorables, don't be surprised that a plurality of voters will choose option 2.
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)She is the only candidate whi has more votes than Trump.
You can speculate that his or that will happen, but the fact is that is Sanders can't get the votes he needs.
If we get to the convention with Hillary ahead by millions of votes, and ahead in delegates (which is the most likely scenario) and hand the nomination to Sanders, that would be a real coronation
I can't believe a Democrat is willing to have the votes of the majority invalidated.
Bassomar
(58 posts)You are rooting for a corporatist warmonger, who will sell you out for a six pack and pack of menthols
Zira
(1,054 posts)Because 30%+ of the Dems refusing to vote for her, she isn't viable in the general election any more than Donald Trump is with the Republicans. The RNC already figured out they can't run him because they will lose the GE. That's why they are talking about a contested election where they replace their horse with someone they believe can win.The DNC needs to wake up to that being the same case with HRC. The RNC is making a move to unify their voters. The DNC will lose to a unified RNC if they don't do the same.
From what I'm reading, we'll end up with president ryan if the DNC doesn't do soemthing to unify. The articles about ryan turning the RNC down if they elect him for their candidate, got obliterated when he said he wouldn't run but would accept the nomination. I know the current articles say he wont accept it now but they're all over the place. The point is, the RNC is desperately trying to find a candidate that can unify their voters and they've already mathematically realized it isn't trump. The DNC needs to wake up. Hillary cannot unify - too many won't vote for her because of their conscience since she's a war hawk and plutocrat among so much more - pro tpp, pro keystone xl, pro fracking, and the list goes on and on.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Millennials will flock to Clinton as will Indies. You really should try to keep up.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)Like Herr Trump and his beer hall followers are just going to allow him and them to have their votes stolen and discounted. As Herr Trump said there will be riots if that occurred and there is no reason in the world not to believe him.
Herr Trump destroyed the GOP...Oh, he destroyed FOX NEWS too...
Scootaloo
(25,699 posts)With the west Virginia primary still to go, she'd probably hold out for a bag of Red Man.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Bassomar
(58 posts)HIllary is corrupt politician and the fact that you refuse to see that it's troublesome. So keep pushing and voting for Politicians that will continue to push the party to the right, it will allow for faster rise of a labor party. It will at least be more representative of progressives than the sham the dem party has become today. Honestly can't stand belonging to a party and people who will defend kissinger/contra/corruption/citizen united/wars. So you are wrong, we are all losing.
elleng
(131,735 posts)and we could not begin a campaign for the American people in those circumstances.
desmiller
(747 posts)Telling us that "No He can't" is an absolute mortal sin to us Bernies. Your previous post and this one are giving us a bad itch. You should change your name to Solid Snake Oil because that's what you're trying to sell us, and it's not working. Welcome to my naughty list, and I encourage my Bernie brothers and sisters-of arms to do the same. Welcome to DU, and it was nice knowing you.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)One of the 99
(2,280 posts)Depaysement
(1,835 posts)So we don't vote for Clinton.
Ho-hum, no time for scum.
Hiraeth
(4,805 posts)IF wishes were fast trains we'd all take a ride.
Bjornsdotter
(6,123 posts)....vote for a nominee at the convention. That is when we have a candidate for tbe GE. Then we have no need for
".......".