Your title scared me and I thought I was going to see a Romney lead. If the race is even tied in Florida, that is good news for the president as he doesn't really need FL.

I love your posts WI but lets cut to the chase here.

reason.

The fact that Newsmax/Zogby polls have not been the most popular or accurate in the past.

WI DEM, you might want to put the numbers in your title.

thanks for your advice though.

Don't look for it on 538.com, though -- Nate won't list Zogby polls.

Newsmax and Zogby. But if it allows the media narrative to change then I'm all for that.

Are Newsmax and Zogby Dem leaning? Or are the polls not scientific enough?

...Zogby lost a lot of credibility in 2004, when, on the morning of the election, he confidently predicted a Kerry popular-vote victory by a comfortable margin. (And, despite the corruption in Ohio that probably cost us an EV victory, it's undeniable that Bush wound up winning the popular vote by several percent.)

I think winning Florida is improtant, just as important as Ohio. I've been stressing over FL, OH and PA for months now.

As NV or IA even. Ohio is clearly most important. PA is pretty much in the bag for Obama. If the president wins PA, OH, and WI, then he only needs ONE of the following states:

NV, IA, CO, VA, or FL. Nevada is just as likely as Ohio for the president.

Winning FL would guarantee re-election for Obama but it's not as important as Ohio.

Nevada and Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan, are holding up nicely for the President.

Obama can afford a loss there, so I understand that argument. However, winning it will be the end of Romney. It is by far the largest swing state. We are going to win the Senate seat there. There is every reason to think that we can win there for the Presidency, and doing so will end the election. Florida is the ultimate firewall.

Yes, PA, OH, WI and one of NV, IA, CO and VA will do it. But Florida by itself almost does it alone (assuming PA and WI are wins). It's too many electoral votes to deem not important. And, this tidbit today is important:

and Ohio has had the President in the lead consistently for a month. Florida would be nice, but the beauty of Obama's position in the race is, we don't HAVE to win Florida.

Spot on, that is. Just look at the trends.

So Nate silver includes Gravis in his forecast BUT won't include Zogby?

Seems to me that if you exclude one then you should exclude the other, OR if you include one then you should include the other.

They are both as bad as each other, so why does Nate Silver include only Gravis?

...they're also not very reliable, and Nate and Zogby have been feuding for years. It's been official 538 policy for a long time that Zogby polls are to be ignored.

The Tampa markets (like Pinellas County) will be really decisive in Florida. But look for Duval County (Jacksonville). President Barack Obama came close to flipping it in 2008. (George W. Bush carried Duval County by R+16.16. John McCain was reduced there by R+1.90.) More than 400,000 votes were cast in that county, in 2008, and Jacksonville (the county seat) is still the No. 1 most-populous city in the state of Florida. It Mitt Romney sends the margins dramatically north for his Romney/Ryan ticket, that's how he'd flip the state. If the Duval County margin for 2012 is comparable to 2008 (even if there is a GOP uptick), that would help Obama to retain carriage of Florida. (And, therefore, he would nationally win re-election for the Democratic ticket of Obama/Biden.)