Let’s start by looking at a swing state that is not in play. Michigan, a state in which Romney would have undoubtedly liked to mount a serious challenge, was abandoned by the McCain campaign in 2008. The Obama campaign has deftly pushed the perception that its administration has saved the auto industry in Detroit. Given that in the latest Rasmussen Poll has Romney trailing by 7 points, even the most adamant Romney supporter would have a hard time arguing the campaign is really competing in the state.

Looking at the broader picture, Real Clear Politics currently puts 10 swing states in play for the 2012 Presidential Election. Excluding Michigan, the states (in order of electoral size) are Florida (27), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Nevada, (6), Iowa (6) and New Hampshire (4).

273towin.com is a very useful site that shows electoral maps for all U.S. Presidential elections, as well as providing an interactive map that predicts the electoral college for the 2012 election. If the October 15 polls become a reality in the forty non-swing states, Obama holds a 217 to 191 edge over Romney in the Electoral College, thus leaving 130 electoral votes from the remaining ten swing states up for grabs.

273towin.com also has the latest polling for then ten swing states listed above. If the election were held today, and those polling numbers became a reality, President Obama would defeat Mitt Romney 270 to 268 in what would be the closest presidential election ever. Even with the ever-changing polls, the intricacies of the Electoral College, and the unpredictability of elections in the United States, where is Mitt Romney going to get the votes necessary to drastically change the outcome of this electoral map
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Yet, given the state of the electoral map, the current volume of polls, the remaining political issues facing his campaign, and the path that was forced on him since the Reagan era, it is difficult to imagine a Romney victory. The fact is, in this election, the results are not about what is fair, possible, or even right, but rather what the numbers gap says is almost certain.