52-45??????

have been good polling days for Obama. The horse race is 7-days.

I understand it's a 7 day average, but that's a huge lead. This isn't looking good.

I used to give wooldog the benefit of the doubt. Like his or favorite president , George Bush, "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, won't get fooled again."

yes because I don't cherrypick favorable polls like you do

I'm not the one that focuses exclusively on Gallup and ignores the dozens of state and national polls available.

Why would you make a ridiculous assumption like that?

I look at every poll that's published.

from a Dkos poster:

What pollster in 2008 found John McCain with a 10 point lead? This was the only pollster to find McCain EVER leading by more than 4.

*Who was the only pollster in October of 2004 to find Bush with an 8 point lead (on October 16th)

*What pollster in 2000 showed Al Gore with a 1 point lead on October 24th, and George Bush with a 13 point lead on october 27th?

*What pollster showed a Clinton lead going from 9 points to 25 points in 1996 in FOUR DAYS?

*What pollster showed the Generic Ballot in 2010 as +15 - 3 more than anyone else and 8 points off the final result.

Take a wild guess...

Fix their methodologies. What gives?

Im still incredibly disappointed in these numbers.

.

Yes, exactly. Carl Rove just said that no candidate has ever won after trailing in the GAllup by so much at this point in the election.

Their results then and their results now are untethered from reality.

I thought Gallup is a respectable poll. There is no way in hell Romney is up by 7 and attracting 52% of the vote! Not even Rasmussen has had Romney at 50%.

ended up being about even (or was it Gore by 0.5% or something). So add around 9.5% to the current gap and you have Obama winning populare vote by about 2%, which is what Nate Silver has had all along.

They were just as wrong in 1980 until they made a last minute correction and got it partially right.

Has an incumbent ever been this far behind, with so little time left and won?

but Obama's not this far behind! Do you really think Gallup is right and every other pollster is wrong?

but it's still unnerving. The polls have definitely shown a strong movement TO Romney. We just aren't sure of the extent of it. The national polls that show O ahead are the non traditional polls that I never put much stock in before, IDB, Rand, etc. Can't change because they're giving me the result I like now

What about Rueters and GWU? Those have given Obama a small lead. Even Rasmussen has a close race. Gallup is clearly an outlier.

Furthermore, the state polls don't show evidence of Romney winning. If Romney starts leading in Ohio, then it's time to get nervous.

Next

10/18-20/00

Gore 40
Bush 51
Polled 718LV

See the link provided to you previously http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2gen1.htm

with a medium sample size.

They use a difft methodology now (7 day sample with a very large sample size). Might be an apples to oranges comparison.

Gore showed a more rapid improvement after that...takes longer with a 7 day screen.

What compelling information below, leads you to believe you have a valid point about Gallup's accuracy?

Note Gore is the first column, Bush the second.


10/18-20/00 # 40 51 1 4 4 718LV
10/17-19/00 # 40 50 - 4 6 702LV
10/16-18/00 # 39 49 - 5 7 706LV
10/15-17/00 # 42 48 - 4 6 LV???
10/14-16/00 # 44 47 - 3 6 728LV
10/13-15/00 # 44 47 1 3 5 756LV
10/12-14/00 # 43 48 1 2 6 727LV
10/11-13/00 # 44 48 1 2 5 687LV

Maybe he made up ground quickly? Maybe there was a big news event (Bushs DUI) that came out and changed the race and caused support to migrate to Gore.

The fact that Gore slightly won the popular vote in 2000 doesn't mean that Gallup's snapshot of the race on Oct 20, showing Bush ahead was wrong.

I take it the other polls were more accurate then and now, as well? You're free to believe that Gallup was an accurate snapshot if you wish. I believe the evidence points in another direction.

Do yo have an agenda here, beyond supporting the President? Kinda seem to.

anyone who doesn't fall in line with automatically thinking that Gallup is wrong now that they're posting results we don't like (when these same posters have been citing it routinely this election season) has a right wing agenda.

Skinner has my personal info, he can check my registration and voting record and donation history. I don't need to prove anything to you.

they have been QUITE WRONG in the past.

for most were off, who would have ever thunk that Gore would have won the popular vote

.

look better for Obama this year than for Gore in 2000? Obviously a race similar to 2000 would be WAY too close for comfort.

But you don't have to take my word for it. You can look for yourself.

just being lazy.

It's obvious I'm biased. That's why I want my facts to be checked and verified.

Since it is on a 3 day roll that part of the poll could be picking up an improvement for President Obama, while the whacky results from the 7 day roll have yet to bleed out of the sample..

2000 is weird though as ALL national polls seemed to be off. Looking at the national polls that year, you would have thought Gore has 0 chance of winning the popular vote.

But the approve/disapprove is among all adults. Who knows what it would be when the approve/disapprove is filtered to registered voters and then filtered further to likely voters.

This is just another election cycle along with 1980 and 2004 where Gallup is getting it wrong.

The Main Page says:

Romney - 52

Obama - 45

pay attention to the 3-day numbers--the job numbers. It could mean the last three days have seen a bump for Obama.

Your probally right and when they get into the last 3 days the numbers should change.

On a side note i would advise everyone not to trn on any cable news shows since they will be going on and on about Gallup's 7 point lead for Romney.

How could Obama be trending up if they show him down 6 yesterday and down 7 today? It doesn't matter that that is a 7 day tracking. The bottom line is the final day of the poll swung for Romney.

I don't know. I just hope Gallup is way off here.

So he had to have improved in both yesterday. In other words more registered voters said they were going to vote for Obama yesterday than the day before. The variable is the LV screen used by Gallup. A 1% change is an additional 27 likely voters over the previous day. There is an element of randomness in these polls.

Glad you're here - and we need you! We can't afford to let this slip away!!!






Now get to work.

Hang in there.

worse and worse. is the debate results going to kick in?

Look at the breakdowns

LV model aready as bullsh*t. Others have shown they are off every election with the LV (look above for 2000 example). This is a genuine batshit poll and they have a history of that.

What pollster in 2008 found John McCain with a 10 point lead? This was the only pollster to find McCain EVER leading by more than 4.
*Who was the only pollster in October of 2004 to find Bush with an 8 point lead (on October 16th)
*What pollster in 2000 showed Al Gore with a 1 point lead on October 24th, and George Bush with a 13 point lead on october 27th?
*What pollster showed a Clinton lead going from 9 points to 25 points in 1996 in FOUR DAYS?
*What pollster showed the Generic Ballot in 2010 as +15 - 3 more than anyone else and 8 points off the final result.

ill be happier to see a national poll come out with better results.

Obama has a 50 percent approval rating yet lose to romey 48 to 47 among registered voters and 52 to 45 among likely voters.
That would mean Obama would lose all the swing states Is Romeny was up by 7.

approval rating has a 3 day window.
race numbers have a 7 day window.

So, all this could mean is that there is a couple of very bad days in the 4 first days of the 7 days window.

Romney had a huge outlier on one of the last 7 days, this is evident because as the older days drop off he is still gaining...once that day or days drop off you will see a swing back..

so why validate? Obama's pollsters have already come out against their LV model, citing their RV as historically being the more accurate predictor. Others have shown their LV to be wacked as well. Even if you look at the breakdown, Obama only +4 in the East? Riiiight. and +22 in the South would mean more then just running up red states, it would mean Florida completely red, NC, and VA gone. Not ied. Blood red. Look there is just no amount of 7 day rolling etc that remotely explains how implausible their poll is.

Explaining why Obama is at 50% Approval (which usually means a President is re-elected) whereas their Tracking Poll contradicts that?

would be all red by now. No wonder O campaign slammed Gallup. This is not even plausible.

The only people who believe the Gallup Poll reflects a larger reality are either trolls or idiots.

Is that while it may be inaccurate, it is the most famous pollster among the general public and will get a lot of attention.

The media will also keep referencing it, and it is keeping Romney above Obama in many of the National Averages at RCP and TPM.

about the media. Obama cares about the ground game, that's where the election is.

If they think he is losing? Will they bother to vote? They might say forget it since Romney is so far ahead.

Obama supporters are voting early and often. Do you really think one polling firm will prevent people from voting?

and many people want to vote for a winner.

Like this: Alex Yudelson ?@AlexYudelson
At this rate, Mitt Romney will be the first candidate to have a 20 point Gallup lead and still lose the election.

Wouldn't surprise me.

They need to stop oversampling the deep south, they're starting to lose credibility.

HOW in hell is Rob-me up amongst and gaining with LV +7 when The President's approval numbers are gaining traction with a 50+1 number? Has Obama's debate numbers kicked in? Has the Biden debate performance kicked in?

SOMETHING'S most definitely WRONG with Gallup's polling. I'm definitely NOT a mathematician, but these Gallup numbers just DON'T jibe IMHO unless Gallup is over-sampling Southern voters AGAIN by +22 points.

I was hoping Romney would at least go down one. I guess he has proved to the public that he is an acceptable alternative. So sick of the highs and lows of this campaign season. I'm afraid the state numbers will start going against Obama once the public starts viewing Romney as the winner per the media's narrative. it does not matter is Gallup is right or wrong. the voters just here that he is winning. This sucks! Stupid @ss voters.

Gallup stopped being the standard ages ago. There are so many polls out there these days and all of them contradict this.

7 points is not mathematically possible with the state polling coming out from tons of other pollsters. Obama is also almost always ahead in registered voters in other polls. I will just look at their RV's for now on. 48% to 47% seems reasonable.

Here is what they ask to determine likely voters:

1. How much thought have you given to the upcoming election for president -- quite a lot, some, or only a little?

1 Quite a lot

2 Some

3 Only a little

4 None (vol.)

5 Don't know

6 Refused

2. Do you happen to know where people who live in your neighborhood go to vote?

1 Yes, any response given

2 No

3 Don't know

4 Refused

3. Have you ever voted in your precinct or election district?

1 Yes, any response given

2 No

3 Don't know

4 Refused

4. How often would you say you vote -- always, nearly always, part of the time, or seldom?

1 Always

2 Nearly always

3 Part of the time

4 Seldom

5 Never (vol.)

6 Don't know

7 Refused

5. Do you, yourself, plan to vote in the election this November, or not?

1 Yes

2 No

3 Don't know

4 Refused

6. How certain are you that you will vote -- [READ 1-3]?

1 Absolutely certain

2 Fairly certain, or

3 Not certain

4 DON'T KNOW

5 REFUSED

7. Thinking back to the elections held for Congress in November 2006, did things come up that kept you from voting, or did you happen to vote?

1 Yes, voted

2 No, did not vote

3 DON'T KNOW

4 REFUSED

Note: (vol.) = Volunteered response

that really counts takes place on election day. Polls go up and go down and disagree with each other and I expect that to continue. Lets work for President Obama as hard as we can. That's a better use of our energy than obsessing over each and every new poll that comes out.

With early voting going in some key "swing" states. I believe polls like these are meant to energize one group and demoralize the other; not working. Yes folks, people just love the job Obama is doing, yet they are going to vote for the other guy. Puleeze. GOTV.

The state poll are showing a different story.


Ohio
Rasmussen Reports
Obama 49, Romney 48
Obama +1


Ohio
SurveyUSA
Obama 45, Romney 42
Obama +3


Michigan
LE&A/Denno Research
Obama 44, Romney 41
Obama +3



North Carolina
Rasmussen Reports
Romney 52, Obama 46
Romney +6



Minnesota
KSTP/SurveyUSA
Obama 50, Romney 40
Obama +10



Connecticut
Hartford Courant/UConn
Obama 51, Romney 37
Obama +14


Wisconsin
Marquette University
Obama 49, Romney 48
Obama +1



New Hampshire
Rasmussen Reports
Obama 50, Romney 49
Obama +1



Nevada
LVRJ/SurveyUSA
Obama 48, Romney 45
Obama +3



Nevada
Rasmussen Reports
Obama 50, Romney 47
Obama +3



Montana
Rasmussen Reports
Romney 53, Obama 45
Romney +8



New Jersey
Neighborhood Research (R)
Obama 48, Romney 41
Obama +7



Connecticut
Siena
Obama 53, Romney 38
Obama +15



Washington
Rasmussen Reports
Obama 55, Romney 42
Obama +13

the post debate bounce is factored in.

A poll, using Gallup methodologies, has Romney up by 11! Give me a break!

Meanwhile, a new Politico poll has Obama up by 1. Obama may or may not be up by 1, but the race is at least close. There is no way he is trailing by 11 in VA, no way he is trailing by 7 nationally, and no way he is losing the electoral college right now!

Thanks.

College. But I do think there is some evidence that the race has tightened somewhat in the past two weeks. But having said that, Jim Messina recently said that the Obama campaign had expected the race to tighten and they have been planning for that all along. So let's not panic and lets keep working for all Democrats on the ballot.

Obama is winning every other region by about 5 points and still leads the EC, but Robme is only leading in Gallup because of his 22 point lead among Southern voters. I can't believe they even showed this crap on Martin Bashir today without at least breaking it down like this.