2016 Postmortem

riversedge

(70,204 posts) Sat Mar 19, 2016, 02:24 PM Mar 2016

NewYork** Dem poll shows Clinton 71% with a wide lead over Sanders-only 23%

ECPS ?@EmersonPolling Mar 17

ECPS #NewYork Dem poll shows @HillaryClinton with a wide lead over @BernieSanders.
http://www.theecps.com/

LauraRoose ?@LauraRoose 15h15 hours ago

@anamariecox From Homeward Trails animal rescue, his name was Zack. Five years later, this Bernie says #ImWithHer.

Progressive Man and 72 others follow
Cornelia ?@PaladinCornelia 1h1 hour ago

#ImWithHer for #WAcaucus
She's not perfect (none of us are) but she's wise, experienced and has a good heart.

Mr. Weeks ?@MrDane1982 15h15 hours ago Bronx, NY

President Obama and Secretary Clinton #ImWithHer #ImWithThem

28 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

NewYork** Dem poll shows Clinton 71% with a wide lead over Sanders-only 23% (Original Post) riversedge Mar 2016 OP

it's all a nefarious plot to suppress the sanders vote lol nt msongs Mar 2016 #1

Bernie losing his home state? itsrobert Mar 2016 #2

Marco Rubernieo 72DejaVu Mar 2016 #4

Yes, Brooklyn knows Hillary is the person to take on Trump lewebley3 Mar 2016 #7

Well said riversedge Mar 2016 #23

But that's one of the states that favors Bernie, isn't it? 72DejaVu Mar 2016 #3

LOL... 373 likely primary voters on landlines. (n/t) SMC22307 Mar 2016 #5

So he will only lose by thirty, hope that makes you feel better, lol. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #13

Landline only quiller4 Mar 2016 #28

We should be cautious. auntpurl Mar 2016 #6

Nah it's a slam dunk! KPN Mar 2016 #26

I don't think anybody believes the final results will be as far apart as that poll. However ... LonePirate Mar 2016 #8

I love NY! It's a closed primary. Democrats only!!! So those numbers might even be better! Walk away Mar 2016 #9

Why Is It That Most Times This Far Out From The Primary That Hillary Has A Big Lead..... global1 Mar 2016 #10

Like SC, FL, OH, AL, TX, GA, NC, LA, VA, and MS. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #12

#sheswithUS #imwithHer riversedge Mar 2016 #15

Those were open primaries... independents pushed Bernie up. DCBob Mar 2016 #19

I think that only really happened in Michigan Trenzalore Mar 2016 #21

WOW! workinclasszero Mar 2016 #11

If this was a boxing match Tad Devine might throw in the towel... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #14

Tad Devine, Jeff Weaver, NinaTurner aren't $old on $urrendering $oon. oasis Mar 2016 #17

They will fight until his last dollar. DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #18

Sorry to upset your paradigm ... KPN Mar 2016 #27

No doubt workinclasszero Mar 2016 #20

Dalai Lama kick. oasis Mar 2016 #16

Thanks for posting this Gothmog Mar 2016 #22

Nice! (Great photos too!) nt NurseJackie Mar 2016 #24

NY has 246 delegates available... SidDithers Mar 2016 #25

msongs

(67,405 posts)

1. it's all a nefarious plot to suppress the sanders vote lol nt

Reply to riversedge (Original post)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 02:25 PM

Mar 2016

itsrobert

(14,157 posts)

2. Bernie losing his home state?

Reply to riversedge (Original post)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 02:28 PM

Mar 2016

Looks like Brooklyn has changed since he left.

72DejaVu

(1,545 posts)

4. Marco Rubernieo

Reply to itsrobert (Reply #2)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 02:29 PM

Mar 2016

lewebley3

(3,412 posts)

7. Yes, Brooklyn knows Hillary is the person to take on Trump

Reply to itsrobert (Reply #2)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 02:41 PM

Mar 2016

riversedge

(70,204 posts)

23. Well said

Reply to lewebley3 (Reply #7)

Sun Mar 20, 2016, 12:57 PM

Mar 2016

72DejaVu

(1,545 posts)

3. But that's one of the states that favors Bernie, isn't it?

Reply to riversedge (Original post)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 02:28 PM

Mar 2016

SMC22307

(8,090 posts)

5. LOL... 373 likely primary voters on landlines. (n/t)

Reply to riversedge (Original post)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 02:30 PM

Mar 2016

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

13. So he will only lose by thirty, hope that makes you feel better, lol.

Reply to SMC22307 (Reply #5)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 02:49 PM

Mar 2016

quiller4

(2,467 posts)

28. Landline only

Reply to SMC22307 (Reply #5)

Sun Mar 20, 2016, 03:09 PM

Mar 2016

A landline only poll in Washington state or Minnesota would be foolish where only 60 percent of households have landlines but New York is one of 2 states where 90 of households still have landlines. New Jersey is the other.

auntpurl

(4,311 posts)

6. We should be cautious.

Reply to riversedge (Original post)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 02:30 PM

Mar 2016

I think this was a landline-only poll and many people have cell phones only now.

However, those numbers look excellent and I am cautiously optimistic that the good people of New York will vote for their former senator!

KPN

(15,643 posts)

26. Nah it's a slam dunk!

Reply to auntpurl (Reply #6)

Sun Mar 20, 2016, 01:14 PM

Mar 2016

Hey New Yorkers! Not to worry. Hillary's got this hands down. It's a shoe in! If you can't make it to the poll, no biggie!

LonePirate

(13,419 posts)

8. I don't think anybody believes the final results will be as far apart as that poll. However ...

Reply to riversedge (Original post)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 02:44 PM

Mar 2016

NY is a closed primary state - a state which twice elected Hillary to the Senate. Chances are she will win NY by a few, if not several, points.

Walk away

(9,494 posts)

9. I love NY! It's a closed primary. Democrats only!!! So those numbers might even be better!

Reply to riversedge (Original post)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 02:45 PM

Mar 2016

You have to register a month before the primary and you have to be a Democrat.

global1

(25,242 posts)

10. Why Is It That Most Times This Far Out From The Primary That Hillary Has A Big Lead.....

Reply to riversedge (Original post)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 02:45 PM

Mar 2016

and then when the results are in Bernie closes that gap within low single digit percentage points, ties or wins?

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

12. Like SC, FL, OH, AL, TX, GA, NC, LA, VA, and MS.

Reply to global1 (Reply #10)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 02:48 PM

Mar 2016

riversedge

(70,204 posts)

15. #sheswithUS #imwithHer

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #12)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 02:51 PM

Mar 2016

DCBob

(24,689 posts)

19. Those were open primaries... independents pushed Bernie up.

Reply to global1 (Reply #10)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 03:38 PM

Mar 2016

NY is closed. He needs to win Democrats.. which he has not yet proven he is capable of doing.

Trenzalore

(2,331 posts)

21. I think that only really happened in Michigan

Reply to global1 (Reply #10)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 03:47 PM

Mar 2016

The pollsters didn't know how to model it because the last competitive primary in Michigan was in 1992.

In 2008 Obama and Edwards declined to file after the DNC stripped Michigan of all of its delegates for moving its primary before New Hampshire.

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)

11. WOW!

Reply to riversedge (Original post)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 02:45 PM

Mar 2016

Get out now and save face Bernie!

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

14. If this was a boxing match Tad Devine might throw in the towel...

Reply to workinclasszero (Reply #11)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 02:51 PM

Mar 2016

Maybe not... Which Rocky movie did Paulie say "I'm glad it's you not me, out threre" ?

oasis

(49,381 posts)

17. Tad Devine, Jeff Weaver, NinaTurner aren't $old on $urrendering $oon.

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #14)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 03:15 PM

Mar 2016

They hope to keep those $27 homing pigeons gainfully employed.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)

18. They will fight until his last dollar.

Reply to oasis (Reply #17)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 03:34 PM

Mar 2016

KPN

(15,643 posts)

27. Sorry to upset your paradigm ...

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #18)

Sun Mar 20, 2016, 01:15 PM

Mar 2016

but there won't be any last dollars. Berners aren't going away -- ever!

workinclasszero

(28,270 posts)

20. No doubt

Reply to oasis (Reply #17)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 03:45 PM

Mar 2016

oasis

(49,381 posts)

16. Dalai Lama kick.

Reply to riversedge (Original post)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 02:51 PM

Mar 2016

Gothmog

(145,176 posts)

22. Thanks for posting this

Reply to riversedge (Original post)

Sat Mar 19, 2016, 05:00 PM

Mar 2016

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)

24. Nice! (Great photos too!) nt

Reply to riversedge (Original post)

Sun Mar 20, 2016, 12:59 PM

Mar 2016

SidDithers

(44,228 posts)

25. NY has 246 delegates available...

Reply to riversedge (Original post)

Sun Mar 20, 2016, 01:06 PM

Mar 2016

Let's be generous and say that Bernie cuts that polling margin by 2/3 by the primary - so that Hillary "only" wins by 16 points.

A 16 point victory for Hillary in NY nets her a gain of about 40 delegates, which is more than Bernie is expected to pick up if he wins Arizona, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii and Washington combined (according to the 538 delegate tracker here: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/ )

Bernie hasn't won a single state where he gained more than 20 delegates on Hillary. His biggest was the 16-0 shutout in VT.

Sid

Reply to this discussion