2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPPP: Obama, Romney tied nationally
October 18, 2012
Based on interviews completed between Monday and Wednesday Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are all tied up at 48%. This represents some improvement for Obama compared to PPP's last national survey, conducted last weekend for Daily Kos and SEIU, which found Romney up 50/46.
Obama is up 51/45 with women, 62/34 with Hispanics, 87/8 with African Americans, and 57/38 with young voters. Romney is ahead 50/45 with men, 46/41 with independents, 58/38 with whites, and 53/43 with seniors.
Voters narrowly disapprove of Obama's job performance, with 46% of voters giving him good marks to 50% unhappy with how he's doing. That's actually up a little bit from a 44/53 spread over the weekend though. Americans are split right down the middle in their assessments of Romney- 47% see him favorably and 47% unfavorably. That's down from a 49/45 spread on last weekend's survey.
With less than three weeks to go until election day, this race couldn't be much more of a toss up nationally. We'll keep you apprised of the daily movement.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-romney-tied-nationally.html
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TrackingPoll_1018.pdf
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)than other polls. GOTV.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)So his actual numbers may be a bit higher.
Politicalboi
(15,189 posts)Rmoney lost A LOT of Indies on Tuesday night. And the crowd size at rallies are another tell sign, and Rmoney needs to bus people in for his.
mgcgulfcoast
(1,127 posts)Mutiny In Heaven
(550 posts)Ergo, this is good news in reality and would likely translate to a slim Obama win of 1 - 3%, should the 51/45 and 50/45 split be reflected in the final returns.
phleshdef
(11,936 posts)stopbush
(24,396 posts)Rmoney needs to be ahead significantly in the national polls to stave off defeat in the swing states where President Obama still leads.
The national polls don't matter, because this is no longer a national election. They are now running for president of Ohio, and he who carries Ohio, wins.
Blaukraut
(5,693 posts)If that trend holds, he should move ahead in a few days.
teabaggersarestupid
(111 posts)"There was not a ton of day to day movement in the first 3 days of the national tracker, but Wednseday after the debate was Obama's best."