2016 Postmortem

powergirl

(2,393 posts) Thu Oct 18, 2012, 02:48 PM Oct 2012

Nate Silver: If election were today, the president would be favored to win

Stephanie Miller gets the latest stats on the election from Nate Silver, New York Time’s FiveThirtyEight blogger and author of “The Signal and The Noise.” Silver says that the race has gotten very close. He says, “As much ground as President Obama lost since the Denver debate, he had some ground he could afford to lose.” Silver says, “We still think President Obama would be a slight favorite if the election was held today.”

http://current.com/shows/talking-liberally/videos/nate-silver-predicts-the-president-to-win-if-election-was-today/

video at the link - I couldn't figure out how to embed the video.

But good news, nonetheless.

2 replies

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Nate Silver: If election were today, the president would be favored to win (Original Post) powergirl Oct 2012 OP

C'Mon SingleSeatBiggerMeat Oct 2012 #1

Right. His Now Cast is very similar to his forecast. This doesn't make sense, HERVEPA Oct 2012 #2

SingleSeatBiggerMeat

(220 posts)

1. C'Mon

Reply to powergirl (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 02:56 PM

Oct 2012

His last update early this morning had Obama at almost a 2-1 liklihood of winning.

That is not a "Slight Favorite" - that is an overwhelming favorite.

God - I can't wait for this election to be over. I have never seen such bullshit in my life....and this guy is a statistician.

HERVEPA

(6,107 posts)

2. Right. His Now Cast is very similar to his forecast. This doesn't make sense,