... should have models that work. Gallup should not be held in the same esteem as it used to be.

With Obama up in swing states. That was always the conventional wisdom for this election. Tight race, and depending on economy, advantage Obama.

Gallup is just not credible; time and time again it shits the bed in October and takes the next month trying to clean it up.

Because Gallup is a famous name to the general public and a pollster that can influence the narrative.

i am not concerned about the poll result.

i am concerned about Dem Base looking at the poll and saying "oh crap, we're way down..might as well not even vote".

its irresponsible for Gallup to be this shoddy with their numbers.

disgusting but hard to prove

If you're open to one crackpot theory, you gotta be open to them all

I'm sure you're just the expert on what is really going on

Gallup showed Clinton up 6 + 3% more than his winning tallies, Bush was up by 11(!) and 8(!) at this point in 2000 + 2004 respectively, and Gallup's final 2008 poll had Obama up by 11(!). I think they're just a shoddy firm, but if they DON'T use the fantasy methodology I strongly suspect them to, they awaken the kraken that is the other candidate's base like no other.

that's no conspiracy! The kraken are exactly the issue

that were behind on Gallup but they still won.

...won the popular vote. Gallup had him down by ELEVEN at this point in '00.

And check Gallup's swing-state numbers from 2010 was a huge swing that ensured Democrats kept certain swing seats. Put it this way, I think they have severe LV problems - I see Romney up nationwide by a point or two, and much of his support is soft.

Again, I question the LV models in general; why are Democrats lining up to vote if they are so disengaged?

It's the same one Republicans were making before Romney's recent improvement in the polls. How do good polls for one candidate suppress the vote? Doesn't it instill a sense of urgency in the other side? Or are people so spineless they vote for whoever is ahead?

Let's hope instead the Dems will see this and say, "I'd better get out there. My vote DOES matter."

from the rooftops. And Anne Romney was on the view talking about Mitt never running again if he loses.

Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus! He should move to where his bank accounts are.

On the face of the numbers alone, a person who hasn't seen a poll in ages would look at that poll and say: bullshit!

Daily Kos showed the internals on the Gallup polls where the South got weighted preferably in their internals:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/17/1146199/-Gallup-Poll-Geographic-Weighting

____________Obama_____Romney_____Margin

.
East________52_________48__________O+4

.
Midwest_____52_________48__________O+4

.
South_______39_________61__________R+22

.
West________53_________47__________O+6

And when I saw the Gallup at RCP going sideways I started googling like a mofo to find out what the hell was going on.

I fully expect Romney to do very well in the south... I just wonder why any woman would vote for him.

Ladies? Am I missing something?

Obama won NC and Florida last time. The Democrats made a lot of gains in the south between 2006 and 2008. But all those gains are now gone.

There was a poll out in NC a week or so ago that showed Obama slipping even with the black vote. Obama won 94% of blacks in 2008 in NC. That's now down to 87%. 12% of blacks in that state said they will vote for Romney. Pollsters are blaming the decline of the black vote on a combination of the economy as well as Obama's support for gay rights.

As for women, I don't think that vote has changed at all. At least not in the South. Despite the overtures Dems have made towards women in this election cycle, women (at least in the South) are not budging at all. Most women here, even in Florida, are pro-life. They have "Choose Life" on their license plates.

It is what it is. The fact Todd Akin isn't being destroyed in the polls should tell you something.

I don't believe it either. There's some real serious hatred of President Obama out there, particularly in the south, but I'm not feeling the love for Mitt Romney no matter what the polls/pundits suggest (esp. regarding women) and IMHO hatred is not likely going to be enough to hand Romney/Ryan the WH.

I think most of us political junkies get that. Look at Gallup's RV's instead. Much better picture of the race. I think Obama will be up with RV's by next week.

It seems that dark skin trumps Mormonism for a lot of Southern rednecks. So what? rMoney could win the South by 40 points, which would translate to an even bigger overall lead by Gallup's calculations, but Obama is leading in every other region, which translates to victory.