if he puts it out there they're seeing it on the ground

Jonathan Shuffield ?@JMShuffield

@BenLaBolt HAHAHA. Obama is down 6 in the RCP average in NC. Better update your resume on Monster, bro.
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41m Steve Wilson Steve Wilson ?@steebo77

@BenLaBolt That's because NC already in the bag for the GOP. Can't believe your campaign is still wasting any resources there.
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39m Malarkey Silverman Malarkey Silverman ?@MisterSilverman

It's still three weeks until the election, and polls are close.

The polls are close, but not that close. PPP had Romney only +2, but the other polls (Ras & Gravis) have Romney up 6 and 9 respectively.

It could also be based on internal polls. If Romney's internals show him winning this state by more than five, he would be better suited putting more of his resources into Virginia and Florida ... states he can realistically still lose.

Why should I believe that poll?

Rasmussen is the only recent poll that shows Romney with a significant lead. So, it's all speculation.

...according to Nate Silver.

Even Rasmussen had Romney up just 3.

more valuable in OH than in NC.

his mouth off about wanting to take a swing at the President?

Could it possibly be the Repubs are getting some serious blowback from that?

http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=news/politics&id=8851725

a national audience of millions of black folk, and this is gonna be a motivator. Bank on it!

Getting Out The DEM VOTE!

Tarheel Dem

keep their mouths shut.

I say let them have at it! They keep stepping in it and have no clue.

I'm guessing they weren't too happy when this news got out. But you don't threaten the man who can actually answer the question "you and whose army"?

I'm just amazed that anyone, even an entitled jerk like Tagg, would be upset about someone actually daring to debate his father -- in a formal debate. I guess that means he accepts that Obama mopped the floor with him since I don't remember anything similar being said about any of Willard's opponents from the debates in the primaries. The only difference then was that Willard won.

got any feedback that caused them to think that maybe Romney
wasn't going to get the votes they were anticipating.

anything, they may be lying low in an attempt not to stir up the president's base. If this incident has the impact I'm thinking it will, this may drive up black turnout, and place McCrory's almost certain victory in jeopardy.

Of course, I don't have any more info than anyone else, but I just can't believe they're pulling out of NC, unless they're pretty sure they've got it in the bag.

about other states, this was the thought of Troy for example in his post here.

Who knows? I don't know his style.

I thought maybe Ben LaBolt was trying some psych tactics on them.

So it has to be true

Let them! Our ground game can win it in NC.

They may believe that NC is close.

But if they have determined that they if they lose OH, NC is irrelevant, then they have to pile into OH. And they can't really say that that is what they are doing. They have to assert that NC is in the bag.

Romney cannot win without Ohio. It makes perfect sense to put more resources into it and pray to hold in North Carolina. It does give another path to victory for Obama, but does not change his map much.

Is it meant to be serious?

I assumed he was parodying the GOP talking point yesterday claiming that Obama was pulling out of certain states and that he was giving them a taste of their own.

I will post follow up if there is any follow up

Is it because the GOP thinks they have NC wrapped up? They are still going to take a beating in local elections since the turnout for Obama in urban areas will be huge. One would think they would maintain some ground presence just to help the down ticket people. Or is it because their internal polling tells them that they will lose here? I can't imagine that it would be anything other than really close. Hmmmm......

Romneys had a slim lead forever

GOTV!

they have NC 'in the bag'. This goes hand in hand w/ the National Journal article yesterday about Obama 'circling the wagon'. Very clever. Projection, projection, projection. What the GOP does best.

regarding Ohio, for sure

Middleburg Heights, Ohio (CNN) - In a clear sign the campaign is confident about putting North Carolina back in the Republican column this year, Mitt Romney's campaign is moving its spokesman out of the state and plans to shift more staffers out in the coming days.

The spokesman, Robert Reid, will be moved to Ohio, which is increasingly viewed by both campaigns as the central battleground of the 2012 race.

"With the increasingly widening polls in North Carolina, we will continue to allocate resources, including key senior staff, to other states," said Romney spokeswoman Sarah Pompei.

The campaign is not pulling out of the state completely.

Pompei said their victory centers throughout North Carolina "will remain open and we expect our supporters and volunteers to remain engaged in our unprecedented get out the vote efforts through Election Day."

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/18/romney-campaign-begins-shifting-out-of-north-carolina/

clearly

He needs to go all in on OH and they used the article yesterday about Obama as cover. Too coincidental. Not buying it.

Yesterday there was the National Journal article about Obama 'circling the wagons' put out by a Fox News alum. Now there's this. See? Clever, huh? Romney has to put all his chips in OH without looking like he's retreating from other states, so do the classic GOP move: project. Say OBAMA is circling but WE are 'safe' and that's why we're pulling out. The article yesterday is what seals it, especially as the O campaign immediately said hell no.

They are clever. But not that clever.

if you don't mind - the tweet was confusing but this explanation helps get at the strategy here

Sacrificing NC to win OH gets Romney nowhere -- OH only has something like 2 more electoral votes. Any plausible Romney path to victory runs through NC. If they're pulling back in NC, it's because they're pretty confident they have it in the bag.

their chickens before they hatch.

is the fact you replied.

they can only win both by shifting resources to Ohio knowing that his flank is exposed but gambling that Obama won't be able to take advantage of it in the time remaining.

They aren't consciously ceding anything in NC.

Obama wins with MI, PA, OH, WI, and IA. He can trade Nevada for Iowa. He can trade Colorado for Wisconsin. He can trade Nevada and Colorado for Wisconsin and Iowa. He can even trade New Hampshire for Iowa or Nevada and throw it into the House.

None of these options are available if Obama wins North Carolina but Romney wins Ohio.

Ohio is far more important even with only three more electoral votes.

since that is a de facto Romney win. If we assume that PA, MI and WI are Obama's -- because, let's face it, if we lose any of those, this race probably won't even be close -- then Romney winning OH and losing NC only opens one or two new paths for him. He still basically has to run the board with the swing states: FL, VA, CO, NH, and either NV or IA. Any statistical advantage that path offers is canceled out by the long odds of winning OH. Sacrificing NC for OH might give him different paths to winning, but I don't think there is much net gain because he's trading one path for another.

I really, really, really don't think they intend to cede NC.

Maybe they are more scared by the OH numbers and just hoping that NC will take care of itself. The fact that they have moved people to OH just means that they think they have a better chance with that configuration, not that NC is 100% safe.

I'd like to believe you, but I don't see one poll that puts Obama in the lead, and only one shows him down less than 6 points. Unless Romney's internals show him losing...I just don't see this as being the most likely scenario, unfortunately. And if he is losing, the margins are probably far tighter than Ohio. He gets nowhere if he loses North Carolina.

I have not played with the map in a while and yes he does indeed need NC at all costs. Still I find yeterday's article followed by today's actions a little too neat.

Obama had a shot at it prior to the first debate, but it looks like that ship has sailed now.

Nate Silver has given Romney about an 80% chance of winning NC now.

Unfortunately we also took a hit in the state earlier this year because of the gay marriage controversy, so it's been very up and down all year. Obama was actually leading in NC until May.

It ain't over until its over.
Especially with early voting starting and Obama's supporters voting early.

that have polled there for the last 2 months and what was the margin, Troy?

Yeah, I'm going to have to disagree with that assessment.

With current deployment R is 86.1% to win NC and O is 68.9% to win OH.

Suppose that redeploying resources makes the likelihoods shift around a bit so that R is 66.1% to win NC and R becomes 51.1% to win OH (adding 20% to O in NC and adding 20% to R in OH).

R goes up a bit in total expected EVs (because OH is slightly larger than NC) AND he remains reasonably assured of a victory in NC and he has a much better shot in OH.

If he does nothing about OH there is likely no path to victory.

They're not closing any offices. This is nothing but a psych out to fake Romney momentum and to demoralize us.

But why, though? They were ahead in North Carolina!

Lets prove them wrong!

or rather the ballot .. gotv!!!

This bodes very well for Obama, actually.

That local NC news was claiming that R's outnumbered D's among the early voters.

That is unlikely based on what I know of the state.

She is not a troll.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251154212#post2

I just really want to see a link. Who said this and what was their methodology for making the claim? Was it more Republicans at a certain area, or statewide? Since people are early voting until 7:00 it would be hard to know this anyway. "Someone said" is not reliable. And the link you point me to has no specificity either. Just "a local station said". I really can't ascertain how reliable the claim is from anything that has been posted. And twice as many repubs voting early as dems is extremely unlikely statewide.

that I had seen patriciaxxxx posting here before and therefore knew that she was not some drive by troll id tossing bs out there. That's all.

Now, to be sure, I may have noticed patricia 1234 while this id is patricia 1243 or something.

You are right to be skeptical.

I just thought I was adding information, regardless of how reliable it might be or not.

Take it FWIW.

Which doesn't mean much since it is a small percentage of the ballot total and Reps always win there.

http://www.wral.com/throngs-swamp-early-voting-sites-in-nc/11673771/

Not meaning to be cranky, just want to understand what people are talking about. And this nugget didn't make any sense to me.

On Oct 1, SurveyUSA had Obama up 2 point.

Since then, PPP issued a poll showing Romney up 2 points.

Additionally, Rasmussen has issued three polls showing Romney up 4 points, 3 points and 6 points.

The only other poll in the period since Oct 1 is Gravis, which puts Romney up 9 points.

Now here is the problem: Rasmussen, which is primarily responsible for the huge shift to Romney having issued three polls post Oct 1, has had Romney ahead the entire GE:

May, Romney up 8 points
June, Romney up 3 points
August, Romney up 5 points
September, Romney up 6 points


Now, other polling prior to Oct 1, grouped by poll

ARG: Romny up 4 points.

PPP:
Late Sept, tie
Early Sept, Obama up 1 point
August, Obama up 3 points

High Point:
Early Sept, Obama up 4 points
Late August (w/SurveyUSA), Romney up 3 points.

Civitas:
Mid Sept, Obama up 4 points
Early Sept (w/SurveyUSA), Romney up 10 points.


More polls: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nc/north_carolina_romney_vs_obama-1784.html

It's not clear to me that the lead Romney enjoys post Oct 1 is significant because it's based mostly on Rasmussen.

Carry me back to ol' Virginia, which is going to spin Romney around and spit him out.